Geostrategic environment (september 10, 2022)

TODAY IN EVIDENCE

• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. The Pentagon’s top acquisition official said Friday he is hopeful a temporary halt to F-35 deliveries, prompted by the discovery that a key magnet in the fighter was made with raw materials that came from China, can be resolved soon. DoD eyes waiver to resume F-35 deliveries halted over Chinese alloy
• (Ethiopia) September 9, 2022. Sunguta West, The Jamestown Foundation. Ethiopian forces in July contained and repulsed an attack conducted in the eastern part of the country by Somalia-based al-Shabaab. Fighters from the militant group entered from southwestern Somalia and targeted four border towns in Ethiopia’s Somali regional state known as Ogaden Region. The estimated 500 al-Shabaab fighters had moved 150 kilometers inside Ethiopia before being met by the Ethiopian military and retreating (Garowe Online, July 30). Al-Shabaab’s Attack in Ethiopia: One-off Incursion or Persistent Threat?
• (Human Rights) September 9, 2022. HRW. Top Human Rights Tweets of the Week
• (Iraq – France) September 9, 2022. Sine Ozkarasahin, The Jamestown Foundation. Iraq’s request to purchase Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France will raise some eyebrows in Washington. Paris is eyeing the Middle Eastern weapons market and has signed significant agreements with Egypt and the UAE—and now Iraq. In a time of growing competition in the 4.5^th / 5^th generation aircraft segment, a French deal with Iraq would significantly increase the former’s share and leverage in a burgeoning fighter jet sales market. Will Iraq’s Potential Purchase of French Rafale Fighter Jets Turn the Counter-Terrorism Tables in the Middle East?
• (Russia – India – China) September 9, 2022. Jagannath Panda, Wooyeal Paik, The Jamestown Foundation. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting in late July, which included China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi exhorted member states to uphold the “Shanghai Spirit” (上海精神, Shanghai Jingshen) of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, mutual consultations, diverse civilizations, and the pursuit of common development (Gov.cn, July 29). The Russia-India-China Trilateral After Ukraine: Will Beijing Take the Lead?
• (Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant) September 9, 2022. IAEA. Director General’s Statement on Serious Situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan) September 9, 2022. Riccardo Valle, Iftikhar Firdous, The Jamestown Foundation. On June 18, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed an attack which targeted a Sikh Gurdwara in Karta-e-Parwan area of Kabul (Dawn, June 18). While ISKP stated there were 50 Sikh and Taliban casualties, two people were reported killed. The operation lasted for several hours and, according to Islamic State (IS)’s Amaq News Agency, one militant named Abu Muhammad al-Tajiki conducted an inghimasi (fighting until death) operation inside the Gurdwara while other supporting members ambushed a Taliban patrol outside it (Twitter/IftikharFirdous, June 19). ISKP Challenges Indian Interests in Afghanistan by Attacking Sikh Worshippers in Kabul
• (Afghanistan) September 9, 2022. Naheed Sarabi and John W. McArthur, Brookings. Afghanistan’s lessons for the Sustainable Development Goals: Interview with Naheed Sarabi
• (China) September 9, 2022. Willy Wo-Lap Lam, The Jamestown Foundation. That President Xi Jinping and his faction will dominate the 20th Party Congress is apparent from the Politburo announcement that the week-long, five-yearly conclave will take place on October 16. The Politburo meeting, which was held on August 30, said that the guiding principle of the party and country would remain “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era” (Gov.cn, October 16).  Will the Xi Jinping Leadership Take up Reformist Policies After the 20th Party Congress?
• (China) September 9, 2022. Kenneth W. Allen, The Jamestown Foundation. As the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Chinese Communist Party (CCP) approaches its 20th Party Congress, which begins on October 16, General Secretary Xi Jinping is set to continue his run as core leader (People’s Daily, August 31). Throughout his tenure, Xi, who is also Chairman of the Party and State Central Military Commission (CMC) and PRC President, has prioritized military diplomacy as a key element of Chinese foreign policy. Consequently, since 2013, the frequency, intensity and scale of China’s military diplomacy has generally increased. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted or limited some areas of engagement, under Xi, the overall trend of military diplomacy assuming a growing role in China’s international engagement is bound to persist. The PLA’s Military Diplomacy in Advance of the 20th Party Congress
• (China) September 9, 2022. Filip Jirouš, The Jamestown Foundation. As the world embraces green initiatives on an unprecedented scale, so has the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — perhaps surprisingly — embraced the green movement, but has done so primarily to support its own political objectives. Make the Green Serve China: PRC Influence Operations Target International Environmentalism
• (Indo-Pacific) September 10, 2022. Kei Koga, East Asia Forum. Japan’s vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) is nearing an inflection point. The government is faced with a choice on whether to shift its traditional strategic posture to take a firmer stance against China. Japan must decide how far it will go to defend the existing international order that the United States and its partners have largely constructed and which has diplomatically, economically and militarily benefited Japan. Indo-Pacific vision that promises peace and prosperity
• (Mongolia) September 9, 2022.  Gordon Feller, East Asia Forum. Mongolia’s dependence on mining has intensified in recent decades. Following the discovery of major coal deposits and gold-copper ore in the early 2000s, its economic significance surpassed that of the traditional livestock sector. In 2022, mining accounts for nearly a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), up from a tenth in 2000. Mongolia’s unsustainable mining bonanza
• (Nigeria) September 9, 2022. Joseph Akpokodje, Mofoluso A. Fagbeja, World Bank blogs. Chsimdi Chukwu, a 24-year-old woman from Lagos, collects and sells plastics for a living in Olusosun, a local dumpsite roughly the size of 60 soccer fields. She is exposed to the city’s heavy traffic, fumes from burnt waste, dust, and the smoke of diesel generators used in most homes on any given day.  Her health is resenting it. Like many of the 23 million people living in Lagos, Chsimdi breathes toxic air.  Supporting a Breath of Fresh Air for Lagos
• (North Korea) September 9, 2022. Ellen Kim, CSIS. On September 9, North Korea celebrated the 74th anniversary of the country’s founding. Amid the growing concern about the country’s possible seventh nuclear test, North Korea held the seventh session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly, where the country’s leader Kim Jong-un formally announced that North Korea would never abandon its nuclear weapons arsenal. North Korea States It Will Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons
• (Papua New Guinea) September 9, 2022. Ruth Moiam, World Bank blogs. Agriculture is considered by most to be ‘the backbone’ of Papua New Guinea (PNG). It is the main source of food, employment and income for 85% of the population who live in PNG’s rural areas.  Surveys consistently show that, besides improved access to health services, education and better road connectivity, agriculture is the sector that most Papua New Guineans consider the most important for government investment. From little things, big things grow: Papua New Guinea’s cocoa farmers defy the pandemic downturn
• (Sahel region) September 9, 2022. Halimatou Hima, Brookings. The provision of education in conflict-affected and humanitarian settings has shifted from an afterthought to a priority. Globally, 222 million school-aged children affected by conflict, violence, and humanitarian crises are in need of education support, and in the Sahel region, the combined effects of insecurity, economic hardship, and climate-induced humanitarian crises threaten to reverse years of hard-won progress in education. In Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the number of schools closed due to insecurity has increased tenfold between 2017 and 2021, depriving over half a million children of education. “Schooling” isn’t enough: The urgency of quality education for children forcibly on the move in the Sahel
• (Taiwan) September 9, 2022. Masaya Inoue, East Asia Forum. Tensions are rising in the Taiwan Strait. In recent years, many developed nations have become concerned over China’s military expansion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has increased anxiety that China, with its military dominance, will unilaterally attempt to change the status quo in Taiwan. Japan’s stance on the Taiwan Strait
• (Taiwan) September 9, 2022. John S. Van Oudenaren, The Jamestown Foundation. Kuomintang (KMT) Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia led a delegation to China in August, which occurred in the immediate aftermath of the extensive live-fire exercises that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted around Taiwan following U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit (Focus Taiwan, August 28; Republic of China, Ministry of National Defense, August 3). Are Cross-Strait Relations Dead?
• (United Arab Emirates) September 9, 2022. IAEA. An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team of experts said the operator of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) Barakah Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), the first NPP in the Arab region, had strengthened operational safety by fully addressing the findings of an initial IAEA safety review mission five years ago. In order to ensure continuous enhancements also in the future, the team encouraged the Barakah NPP to continue to use the IAEA’s nuclear safety review services. IAEA Sees Strengthened Operational Safety at UAE’s First Nuclear Power Plant, Encourages Continued Improvement

TOPICS

• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Xavier Vavasseur, Naval News. During a recent visit to the Naval Group shipyard in Lorient, Naval News had the chance to interview a Hellenic Navy Commodore on the FDI HN program. ‘FDI HN Will Dominate the Aegean Sea’ – Hellenic Navy
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Naval News. The start of fabrication of the future USS Pittsburgh (LPD 31), the 15th San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship and the second ship built in the LPD Flight II configuration, began at Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Ingalls Shipbuilding division, on Sept. 7.  HII Begins Fabrication for the 2nd San Antonio-class Flight II LPD
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Naval News. Saab’s test platform for the development of autonomous functions Enforcer III, which was converted from the Combat Boat 90, was tested in a joint trial by Saab and the Swedish Navy in the southern Baltic Sea. Swedish Navy tests Saab Enforcer III USV during exercise
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Naval News. MAN Energy Solutions has signed a contract with Damen Naval for the delivery of 8 × MAN 32/44CR propulsion engines. MAN wins order from Damen Naval for Propulsion Diesel Engines for F126
• (Defense – Military – Space) September 9, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News.  The U.S. Department of Defense has signed a memorandum of agreement to begin shifting responsibilities for managing space traffic to the Department of Commerce. Defense and Commerce departments partner on space traffic management
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022.  Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army and Marine Corps have declared the Joint Air-to-Ground Missile ready for full-rate production, manufacturer Lockheed Martin said in a statement on Sept. 8. Army, Marines declare Joint Air-to-Ground Missile ready for production
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. Ligado Networks’ plan to establish a terrestrial 5G network could jeopardize some older U.S. Defense Department satellites, according to a congressionally mandated report released Friday. The company is preparing to start operationalizing its system as soon as next month. Ligado 5G could be ‘harmful’ to older Pentagon satellites, report says
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. As Ukrainian forces battle back a stalling Russian invasion, government officials hailing from Kyiv told a conference in Washington, D.C., that they are eyeing a future defined by digital innovation, defense know-how and high-tech investments. Kyiv officials lay out vision for security, digital future at DC event
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said Wednesday he is more bullish about the future of the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon after two recent flight test successes — but the key hypersonic program has not yet proven itself. Kendall ‘more optimistic’ on hypersonic effort after successful tests
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. The U.S. Department of Defense is looking to commercially available software to help address supply chain disruptions, a growing concern as companies large and small deal with the continued fallout of pandemic-related parts availability issues. Pentagon eyes commercial solution to supply chain problems
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. The Polish Ministry of National Defence has sent a letter of request to the United States government to buy 96 Boeing AH-64E Apache attack helicopters for the nation’s armed forces. Poland asks US for Apache helicopters to pair with its Abrams tanks
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Mike Yeo, Defense News. American F-22 fighters are training in northern Australia alongside the host nation’s F-35A jets as part of an initiative meant to improve interoperability between their armed forces. US sends F-22 jets to Australia to train alongside F-35A fighters
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Tom Kington, Defense News. Nations teaming to build a flagship European corvette with the help of EU funding are looking ahead to a €200 million, or $202 million, investment from the bloc’s defense coffers next year to build the first prototype. European Patrol Corvette to get fresh money from EU coffers
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 9, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force and industry partners are ramping up efforts to add the newest electronic warfare gear into as many as 43 already-operational F-15E fighters. More F-15Es to get electronic warfare upgrades in award to BAE
• (Digital & Health) Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Prime Healthcare has announced a strategic partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) and automation company Steer Health to implement a platform aimed at improving access to care and patient outcomes in its 45 hospitals and 300 outpatient centers across 14 states. AI-Driven Partnership Aims to Improve Patient Outcomes, Care Access
• (Geo-energy) September 9, 2022. Ben Cahill, CSIS. The G7 has confirmed its plans to impose a price cap on Russian oil. The goal is to keep Russian crude oil and petroleum products on the market to avoid a price spike, while depriving the country of essential revenues for its economy and its war machine. The price cap is a novel approach. Most energy sanctions target export volumes, while this plan would cut prices. But rather than set a new, globally recognized price for Russian oil, the cap is likely to create a multitiered price system. It would cut but not decimate Russia’s oil revenue. Big Challenges for Russian Oil Price Cap
• (Global economy) September 8, 2022. Kristalina Georgieva, Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, Ratna Sahay, IMF blog. Too many women are locked out of economic opportunities, which is not only unfair but also harms growth and resilience for all. We know that in countries with greater gender inequality just closing the gap in women’s labor force participation could increase economic output by an average of 35 percent. Progress, however, is slow to come and shocks, such as health and climate disasters, social unrest, and war continue to worsen gender inequality by directly affecting women’s lives and livelihoods or keeping them out of school and work. How to Close Gender Gaps and Grow the Global Economy
• (Global inflation) September 9, 2022. Philip Barrett, IMF blog. Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation steadily higher. The average global cost of living has risen more in the 18 months since the start of 2021 than it did during the preceding five years combined. How Food and Energy are Driving the Global Inflation Surge
• (SDGs) September 9, 2022. Jacob Taylor, Brookings. In a recent report on the state of the world’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the U.N. Secretary General did not mince his words: “An urgent rescue effort is needed…to get the SDGs back on track.” Three years into a global pandemic and related social and economic crises, a projected 75-95 million more people are living in extreme poverty, hundreds of millions of children have missed out on critical education, and global energy-related CO2 emissions are on the rise again in a world riddled by violent conflict and deepening geopolitical division. The SDGs will need action, bonding, and ritual: lessons from collective intelligence