Geostrategic Diary – June 13, 2022 a.m.

First published in The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

• June 12, 2022. By Yang Sheng and Liu Xuanzun, Global Times. The Chinese armed forces will fight to the very end if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, said the Chinese defense chief in a speech delivered at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday. Chinese analysts said this is the strongest warning China has sent to the US, as Washington has frequently used the Taiwan question to provoke China and encourage the separatist authorities on the island to worsen the region’s security situation. Chinese defense chief sends ‘strongest warning’ to US on Taiwan question; ‘Indo-Pacific strategy will fail to divide region’

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

AROUND THE WORLD

Algeria – Libya

• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Algerian Foreign Ministry has condemned the recent clashes that took place in the capital, Tripoli, on Friday night, between armed groups, warning all Libyan parties of the “consequences of bushing the country into chaos”. Algeria warns Libyan parties of bushing the country into chaos

Canada

• June 10, 2022. By World Nuclear News. Terrestrial Energy – developer of the Integral Molten Salt Reactor (IMSR) – has signed an agreement with ammonia production technology supplier KBR to investigate the application of zero-emission thermal energy for the production of hydrogen and ammonia. IMSR to be considered for ammonia production : New Nuclear

Chad – Libya

• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Gold worth 57 billion CFA francs ($91 million) leaves Chad each week heading for Libya, the president of the Chadian Transitional Military Council, Mohamed Idriss Deby told state broadcaster Tele Tchad in an interview aired on June 9, according to the American agency Bloomberg. $91 million worth of gold leaves Chad every week heading to Libya

Gaza

• June 13, 2022. By Rasha Abou Jalal, Al-Monitor. The newly established community police affiliated with the Ministry of Interior in the Gaza Strip started its work in early June.  Can community police in Gaza replace tribal judiciary?

India

• June 13, 2022. By Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, ORF. Indian diplomacy is facing an international furor after a spokesperson of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made derogatory comments about Prophet Muhammad in a televised debate recently. Nupur Sharma, the BJP’s main spokesperson, made the comments during a debate last month while Naveen Jindal, another BJP official, followed up with a tweet about the Prophet. The tweet has been deleted, but the controversy from these comments has created a big headache for Indian foreign policy, at least temporarily. India Faces a Diplomatic Storm in the Middle East

India – West Asia

• June 13, 2022. By VIF. Amb. Anil Trigunayat, Distinguished Fellow at VIF assesses, “West Asian states’ reactions to recent events in India”. The speaker identifies the impact areas in India-West Asia engagement and evaluates the response of the Indian government. West Asian states’ reactions to recent events in India

Iran

• June 13, 2022. By Middle East Eye. Two Iranian aerospace officials, including a member of the Revolutionary Guards’ Corps (IRGC), were “martyred while on mission” in separate incidents inside the country, the Fars news agency reported on Monday. Iran: Two aerospace officials ‘martyred while on mission’
• June 13, 2022. By Kurdistan 24. Two Iranian aerospace officials, including a member of the Revolutionary Guards’ Corps, were “martyred while on mission” in separate incidents inside the country, the Fars news agency reported Monday. Two Iran aerospace officials ‘martyred while on mission’
• June 10, 2022. By World Nuclear News. Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it will remove 27 cameras used by the agency to verify and monitor the country’s implementation of its nuclear commitments under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran to remove monitoring cameras : Regulation & Safety

Iraq

• June 21, 2022. By Mustafa Shilani, Kurdistan 24. The Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, “reluctantly” accepted the resignations of the Sadrist members of the Iraqi Parliament on Sunday. Iraqi parliament speaker ‘reluctantly’ accepts resignation of Sadrist MPs
• June 21, 2022. By Mustafa Shilani, Kurdistan 24. Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani visited the Ministry of Construction and Housing and met its minister, Dana Abdulkareem Hamasalih, on Sunday. Railway project important for linking cities and promoting trade: PM Barzani

Libya

• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Libyan constitutional talks between the House of Representatives (HoR) and High Council of State (HCS) in Cairo kicked off its third and final round on Sunday in the presence of UN Advisor on Libya, Stephanie Williams, who reiterated that there’s no room for any failure this time. UN Advisor on Libya says at Cairo meetings: There’s no room for failure
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The deputy head of Presidential Council Abdullah Al-Lafi reiterated the importance for the constitutional talks in Cairo to be successful in order to reach consensus in order to satisfy the aspirations of Libyans in holding elections. Al-Lafi reiterates to Italian envoy importance of constitutional talks in Cairo
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Attorney General has established a security room to investigate incidents concerning the smuggling of subsidized urea fertilizer out of the country. Attorney General forms security room to investigate urea smuggling
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Head of the Presidential Council (PC), Muhammad Menfi, discussed during a call on Saturday with US Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland the security situation in Libya, mainly in the capital, Tripoli. Menfi reviews security situation in Tripoli with US, UN officials
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Minister of Oil and Gas in the Government of National Unity, Mohammed Aoun, said that Libya is currently losing more than 1,100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil production due to the closures imposed on major export fields and ports. Libya loses more than one million bpd due to oil closures
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Sirte company for oil and gas production reopened Al-Istiklal field and pumped about 60 square feet of gas via the coastal gas transfer system to eastern region’s power plants. Sirte company reopens Al-Istiklal field to resume gas supply to power plant
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The head of the parallel government, Fathi Bashagha, has stressed that the protection of civilians in Tripoli can only be achieved through a disarmament process, through security arrangements under the supervision of the UN mission. Bashagha calls for security arrangements under UN supervision to disarm all armed groups in Tripoli
• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdel Hamid Dbeibah, said on Saturday, that clear constitution and presidential and parliamentary elections are the only way to get out from the current political impasse in the country. GNU is ready for elections, PM Dbeibah says

Qatar – Libya

• June 12, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The ambassador of Qatar to Libya, Khalid Al-Dossari, reiterated his country’s support for the UN Advisor on Libya Stephanie Williams to reach a comprehensive agreement for all political parties leading to holding elections. Qatari ambassador to Libya reiterates Doha’s support for UN Advisor’s efforts to reach consensus

Russia – Ukraine 

• June 13, 2022. By Ukrinform. The anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shot down Russia’s Su-34 bomber aircraft in Kharkiv Region. Ukrainian defenders down Russia’s Su-34 plane in Kharkiv Region
• June 13, 2022. By Ukrinform. Russian invaders have opened fire on the border areas of Chernihiv Region and Sumy Region from the territory of Russia. Border areas of Chernihiv Region, Sumy Region come under enemy fire
• June 13, 2022. By Ukrinform. Ukraine needs 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks, 300 multiple launch rocket systems and 2,000 armored vehicles to achieve heavy weapons parity with the Russian Federation and liberate Ukrainian territories from Russian invaders. Ukraine needs 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks and more to end the war – Podolyak
• June 13, 2022. By Ukrinform. In Zaporizhzhia Region, Russian invaders have stolen 54 railway freight cars loaded with ore from Zaporizhzhia Iron Ore Plant PJSC. Russian invaders steal freight cars loaded with ore from Zaporizhzhia Region
• June 13, 2022. By Ukrinform. This morning explosions have been heard in the city of Mykolaiv, and Russian troops have again opened fire on Sumy Region from across the state border. Update on situation across regions: Blasts heard in Mykolaiv, Russians again fire at Sumy Region
• June 13, 2022. By Ukrinform. A total of 288 children have been killed and over 527 injured in Ukraine since the Russian invasion started. Russian armed aggression affects over 815 children in Ukraine
• June 13, 2022. By Al Jazeera. Russia has earned $98bn from fossil fuel exports during the first 100 days of its war in Ukraine, with the European Union being the top importer, according to new research. Russia ‘earned’ $98bn in fuel exports in 100 days of Ukraine war
• June 13, 2022. By Al Jazeera. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 110th day, we take a look at the main developments. Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 110
• June 13, 2022. By HRW. Russian authorities have forcibly disappeared a teacher they detained in Ukraine in late March 2022, Human Rights Watch said today. Russia: Enforced Disappearance of Ukrainian Teacher
• June 12, 2022. By ISW, Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Grace Mappes. Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units.The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from some units over the last few weeks.[1] The UK MoD noted that Russian brigades and regiments normally can generate two BTGs, but doing so leaves the parent units largely hollow shells. The UK MOD concluded that these third BTGs will likely be understaffed and rely on recruits and mobilized reservists. Their deployment will likely adversely impact the capacity of their parent units to regenerate their combat power for quite some time. BTGs generated in this fashion will not have the combat power of regular BTGs. It will be important not to overestimate Russian reserves produced in this way by counting these third BTGs as if they were normal BTGs. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12

South Korea

• June 10, 2022. By World Nuclear News. Unit 1 of the Shin Hanul nuclear power plant in South Korea was connected to the electricity grid for the first time on 9 June, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) announced. The unit – the first of two APR-1400 reactors at the site – is scheduled to enter commercial operation later this year. Korean reactor starts supplying electricity : New Nuclear

Syria

• June 13, 2022. By Khaled al-Khateb, Al-Monitor. The Syrian opposition’s self-styled interim government in north Syria has been recently working on a plan to purchase large quantities of grains, namely wheat, from local farmers with the aim to boost stocks needed to produce bread. The move is intended to partially reduce the effects of the global food crisis and the risks linked to wheat imports amid the deteriorating economic situation in north Syria. Syrian opposition bans wheat exports in response to food crisis
• June 13, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. On Sunday, two people were injured as a result of fighting between two Turkish-backed armed opposition factions, also known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), in the northern countryside of the Aleppo Governorate, northern Syria. Two Civilians Injured in Clashes Between Turkish-Backed Factions in Aleppo
• June 13, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Opposition Coalition’s (SOC) Committee of Political Parties and Blocs held a discussion session on the prospects of the political process and changes in the SOC. It brought together representatives of the Syrian national political parties and blocs. SOC Committee of Political Parties and Blocs Holds Discussion on Political Process
• June 13, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Several media sources said that the death toll from a land mine explosion in Deir al-Adass town, in the northern countryside of Daraa, has risen to 12 people. Mine Explosion Kills 12 Civilians in Daraa
• June 13, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Several figures loyal to the Assad regime criticized the Israeli raids on Damascus International Airport, which led to the airport’s decommissioning. Duraid Rifaat al-Assad said that the response to the attack should be bombing the main airport of the Israeli occupation. Assad’s Cousin Calls for Destruction of Ben Gurion Airport in Response to Damascus Airport Strike
• June 13, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. A few months ago, a Turkish MP burst into a jewellery store on the Aegean coast with a video camera to interview the owner. He demanded to see his ID, his shopkeeper’s license and recorded their conversation without asking permission. Soon afterwards, he posted the video on the social networks, introducing the jeweller with the following message: “He came to Turkey seven years ago. Acquired citizenship. Has a permit to carry a handgun. Opened a jewellery shop in Izmir with a license obtained in Sanliurfa. There are 900,000 other Syrians like him. Turks, are you aware of the danger?”. This MP’s name is Ümit Özdag. He is the leader of a new nationalist party, The Victory Party (Zafer Partisi, ZP), which has launched a highly viral campaign on the social networks calling for the deportation of nearly four million Syrian refugees exiled in Turkey.  Erdogan Wants to Send a Million Refugees Back to Northern Syria
• June 13, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Syrian opposition negotiating body has elected Badr Jamous, a member of the Syrian National Coalition’s political body, as the commission’s head for its next session. Jamous will succeed Anas al-Abda. Badr Jamous Elected President of Syrian Negotiating Body to Succeed Anas al-Abda
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. Homs province: SOHR activists have documented the death of a young man and injury of his mother in gunfire by unknown gunmen in Al-Rastan city in the northern countryside of Homs, before the gunmen escaped. New murder in regime-controlled area | A young man killed and his mother injured in northern Homs
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. Deir Ezzor province: Two civilians were injured during a tribal infighting which erupted today in SDF-held areas in Deir Ezzor countryside. According to SOHR sources, a dispute ignited between members of Ekayddat tribe and a group of Jadidat Bakara tribes’ members and evolved into clashes. While each side amassed more troops, amid appeals to dignitaries of Deir Ezzor tribes and military formations in the area to interfere and break up the clashes. Tribal fight | Clashes erupts in Deir Ezzor countryside, leaving two people injured
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. After more than a decade of civil war, regime-held Syria is in a state of economic ruin. Conflict, endemic corruption, drought and the mass migration of skilled workers have exacted a devastating toll, leaving the country ripe for exploitation. How Syria illustrates Iran’s malign economic influence in the Middle East
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR activists have documented the death of a member of the engineering units of the regime forces while dismantling an IED planted by unidentified persons on the road between Bayt Jinn area and its farm in western Rif Dimashq. IED blast | Regime combat engineer killed during dismantling IED in western Rif Dimashq
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR activists have reported that a Turkish military convoy headed to Al-Kaa’iba village in Akhtarin countryside north of Aleppo to intervene and stop the violent clashes that erupted between Al-Mu’tasim Division and Ahrar Al-Sharqiyyah faction in Al-Kaa’ibah village in rural Akhtarin. Factional infighting | Ahrar Al-Sharqiyyah clashes with Al-Mu’tasim Division north of Aleppo and Turkish forces intervene to stop fighting
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. Reliable sources have informed SOHR that a new murder took place in Al-Hawl “mini-state” in the far south-eastern countryside of Al-Hasakah, where a displaced Syrian woman was killed and found dumped in sewage in the fifth section of Al-Hawl camp. Second murder in 24 hours | Displaced Syrian woman killed in “Al-Hawl mini-state” in Al-Hasakah countryside
• June 12, 2022. By SOHR. People found a newborn girl dumped on the sidewalk in the western village of Dashishah in the southern countryside of Al-Hasakah, on Sunday morning, SOHR activists reported. Abandoned babies | Newborn baby girl found dumped by the road in southern Al-Hassakeh countryside

UK

• June 10, 2022. By World Nuclear News. The first batch of waste has been removed from the Magnox Swarf Storage Silo (MSSS) at the Sellafield site in the UK. The facility was built in the 1960s to store waste from the UK’s earliest nuclear reactors in water-filled chambers. Waste removal starts at Sellafield facility : Waste & Recycling

USA

• June 13, 2022. By East Asia Forum. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2016 forced many to revise their assumptions about the nexus between the United States’ internal socio-political landscape and its role in international affairs. Trump’s first presidential term exposed the potential of an elite and popular constituency for isolationism, protectionism and xenophobia that was until then known to be influential at the margins, but thought not capable of capturing control of the US political system. Asia needs to remain alert to the threat of Trumpism
• June 12, 2022. By Gary Clyde Hufbauer, East Asia Forum. Former US president Donald Trump looms heavily over the US political landscape. His celebrity candidates, JD Vance in Ohio and Dr Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, won their respective primary battles to become Republican Senate candidates in November 2022. Both are likely to win seats. Biden’s trade policy is wrapped up in domestic and Trumpian politics

DEFENSE, MILITARY

• June 13, 2022. By Xu Yelu, Global Times. Following Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi’s speeches at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday, Kishi continued to express Japan’s so-called “concerns” during his meeting with China’s State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe on Sunday. Experts said that it was not surprising for Kishi, a long-time China-bashing politician to bring these issues up in the dialogue. Still experts said this first face-to-face meeting between both defense ministers in over two years signaled some goodwill from both sides. Japan continues to address ‘concerns’ over China during defense ministers’ meeting, attempting to take advantage from regional conflicts
• June 13, 2022. By Deng Xiaoci and Wan Hengyi, Global Times. Only one day after alleging that “China’s military build-ups” would cause inevitable upgrade of military capabilities of its neighbors in his speech at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles met on Sunday with China’s State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe who is also attending the event, a first time for three years, which Australian local media hailed as a sign of breaking a two-year diplomatic stalemate between the two countries and marking a first step toward improved bilateral relations. Australia urged to show real actions to reset China ties amid confusing messages at key security meeting
• June 13, 2022. By Graeme Dobell, The Strategist. The US and China came to Singapore’s Shangri-La security dialogue to argue and score points, to talk and to taunt. The US and China talk and taunt

PERSPECTIVES

• June 13, 2022. By Al Jazeera. The global stockpile of nuclear weapons is expected to rise in coming years for the first time since the Cold War due to global tensions, a leading arms watchdog has said. In its annual report published on Monday (PDF), the Stockholm International Peace Research (SIPRI) said on Monday that all nine nuclear-armed countries are increasing or upgrading their arsenals. Global stockpile of nuclear weapons expected to rise: SIPRI