With the first week of April now firmly in the rear-view mirror, the first quarter of 2025 can easily be characterized as a period of scene-setting for what looks likely to be a highly volatile year in both markets and geopolitics, with the latter weighing heavily on the former. The region’s major hydrocarbon producers may face greater fiscal and economic challenges this year than initially expected, due to oil prices potentially taking a hit from worldwide trade tensions and efforts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus 10 non-OPEC oil-producing nations (OPEC+) to bring undisciplined producers under control. While most producers will largely escape the direct impact of the tariff policy implemented by President Donald Trump’s second administration, the indirect effects of tariffs on major oil- and natural gas-consuming economies are another matter entirely. For MENA economies that are net consumers of energy, geopolitical tensions will remain a key issue to watch as energy security continues to be a concern in the months leading up to summer. This may be due to difficulties with procuring energy imports or the relative ability to attract investment into domestic energy production in a potentially riskier investment climate.
MENA Energy Recap, Q1 2025: Tariffs and Sanctions Loom Large as Trump Returns (Colby Connelly, Middle East Institute)
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