Geostrategic magazine (march 22, 2024)

LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

The Global Eye

Daily from global think tanks and open sources

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

Armenia – Azerbaijan

(Council on Foreign Relations) Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Philip Gamaghelyan, assistant professor at the Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies at the University of San Diego, discuss the ethnic and territorial conflicts in the region, including conflict resolution strategies, regional security implications, and the role international actors have played.

Religion and Foreign Policy Webinar: Conflict Resolution in Armenia and Azerbaijan | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Artificial Intelligence

1 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Panelists reflect on how the digital transformation is reshaping the economy and how cities like New York can embrace new technologies, like artificial intelligence, to foster economic growth.

Young Professionals Briefing: Artificial Intelligence and the Economy—How Cities are Embracing New Technologies | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

2 – (Susan Ariel Aaronson, Dhanaraj Thakur – CIGI) There’s a contradiction at the heart of artificial intelligence (AI). On one hand, scientists increasingly rely on variants of the technology for scientific discovery. On the other hand, many variants of AI are black boxes — opaque and unaccountable to their users. One can provide them with input and receive an output, but the user cannot examine the system’s code, data sets or logic. Developers, deployers, policy makers and AI users must address this opacity if we want generative AI models to enable rigorous, reproducible research.

We Need to Talk about AI Reproducibility – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)

3 – (Susan Ariel Aaronson – CIGI) The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.

Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)

Asia

(Yves Tiberghien, Mei Terasawa – East Asia Forum) The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Indo-Pacific region is reshaping regional economies and power dynamics, with China leading in production and sales as new EV factories spring up across Asia. Emerging economies are taking advantage of their late-developer status to increase their economic power through massive investments into EVs, strategic subsidies and broader fiscal policies. Regional competition over critical minerals and between established auto manufacturers and EV newcomers is fuelling this green tech’s technological disruption.

Asia ground zero in the revolution of electric vehicle markets | East Asia Forum

Belarus

(Grigory Ioffe – The Jamestown Foundation) The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.”. Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a stronger reliance on Russian businesses and trade routes. Whether Belarus will retain its statehood or become a Russian colony depends on how long Minsk and Moscow remain on the same side of the Iron Curtain.

Ostracizing Minsk May Not Be in the West’s Interests – Jamestown

China

(Suyash Desai – East Asia Forum) China’s military has been rapidly modernising, with aims of reunification with Taiwan. This has lead to an increase in military exercises and live-fire drills across the Strait, particularly since former US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022. China has also been building up its arsenal of roll-on/roll-off (RO–RO) ferries, which can transport large numbers of vehicles and military personnel. This is a sign that China is bolstering its capabilities for an amphibious invasion, although concerns remain over the vessels’ vulnerability in contingency scenarios.

RO-RO ferries may be China’s route to reunification | East Asia Forum

China – Russia

(Clara Fong and Lindsay Maizland – Council on Foreign Relations) After a long history of disputes, China and Russia have expanded their military, economic, and diplomatic relations in the twenty-first century. The countries are celebrating seventy-five years of diplomatic relations in 2024. Though ties between them have substantially increased, China and Russia are not natural partners or formal allies, and experts question the strength of the relationship. Beijing and Moscow’s cooperation is driven by their desire to curb American power and challenge U.S. hegemony despite ongoing challenges to their relationship.

China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Colombia

(Crisis Group) The Gaitanistas, Colombia’s largest and richest armed and criminal group, remain outside the government’s initiative for dialogue with all the country’s armed organisations. To avoid jeopardising other peace processes and to protect civilians, Bogotá should seek gradual talks with the Gaitanistas, while maintaining security pressure.

The Unsolved Crime in “Total Peace”: Dealing with Colombia’s Gaitanistas | Crisis Group

European Union 

(Walter Brenno Colnaghi – East Asia Forum) The European Union aims to source 40 per cent of its green tech domestically by 2030, but the lack of additional funding raises concerns about a fragmented internal market dependent on China. This green tech manufacturing strategy aims to balance economic security with decarbonisation goals in sectors like electric vehicles and solar panel manufacturing. But to truly reduce reliance on China, the European Union needs improved internal coordination and much more Brussels-level funding for critical industries.

The precarious political economy of European industrial policy | East Asia Forum

European Union – Egypt

(Anthony Dworkin – European Council on Foreign Relations) The European Union has announced a new strategic partnership with Egypt that includes an aid package of €7.4 billion. The deal is an attempt to reinforce Egypt’s stability and counter-migration efforts at a time when the country faces increased economic and security pressures from the war in Gaza. But the EU risks simply pouring its funding into a failing economic model unless it attaches meaningful conditions.

Aid with reform: How the EU-Egypt deal can succeed | ECFR

Germany

(Jana Puglierin – European Council on Foreign Relations) Germany’s defence policy has come a long way in the last two years. But looking at the challenges that lie ahead for Germany, the current course falls short – and the toughest political debates are yet to come.

Turning point or turning back: German defence policy after Zeitenwende | ECFR

Global Perspectives

1 – (Center for Strategic and International Studies) Analyzing key trends and patterns through data is fundamental for driving change in the policy realm. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has turned to its experts to get insights on some of the most important issues shaping the world in 2024. Backed by data, this report presents a range of policy issues that will be critical for charting a strong course for this year.

Charting 2024 through Data (csis.org)

2 – (Crisis Group) Entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.

On the Horizon: March – August 2024 | Crisis Group

Haiti

(Crisis Group) With the acting premier out of the country, Haitian gangs have formed a united front to take over key sites and deter an international security mission from embarking.

Will a New Government Halt Haiti’s Nosedive? | Crisis Group

India – Maldives

(Rishabh Yadav – East Asia Forum) A diplomatic rift between India and the Maldives expanded after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Lakshadweep islands caused his supporters to compare it to the Maldives as a potential tourist destination. This angered Maldivians and the ensuing mudslinging was amplified by social media-led boycotts of the Maldives. This stirred the Maldivian government to scramble to control the damage, while New Delhi’s stoking of grassroots Hindu nationalism continued to prove dangerous for India’s diplomatic standing in the region.

Hyper-nationalism hurting India–Maldives relations | East Asia Forum

Myanmar

(Calvin San – East Asia Forum) Myanmar’s military junta has enforced compulsory conscription for young men and women, a move that will amplify the ongoing human rights crisis in the country and lead to widespread emigration and extortion. As the international community’s pressure fails to deter nationwide persecution, it’s crucial that international bodies ramp up their support for local pro-democracy groups directly engaged with civilians, leveraging diaspora networks and employing aid strategies that reach communities beyond the border areas.

Conscription will worsen Myanmar’s dire humanitarian crisis | East Asia Forum

Near East

1 – (Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, Ryan Murphy, and Alessandra Magazzino – Atlantic Council) Hamas managed an investment portfolio worth at least $500 million, despite sanctions on the group. Hamas is not designated as a terrorist group by the UN or by partners in the Arab world. There are gaps in sanctions designations among Western jurisdictions as well. Allies and partners need to develop and share the same level of understanding on the terrorism threat and the risks terrorist financing poses to the global financial system.

Global Sanctions Dashboard: How Hamas raises, uses, and moves money – Atlantic Council

2 – (Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe – Center for Strategic and International Studies) Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.

The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah (csis.org)

Russia

1 – (Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian private military company (PMC) Española grew out of a subculture of soccer hooliganism in Russia. Española’s connection to soccer has important implications for using sports to recruit private soldiers for Russia’s war against Ukraine—a trend that has shown signs of spreading beyond soccer to hockey. The Russian PMC could use soccer to forge ties with fans outside Russia in the Balkans, Central Europe, and beyond.

Española: Russia’s Premier Soccer Paramilitary Group – Jamestown

2 – (Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creations of a new army corps, motor rifle division, and Dnipro River flotilla, along with the establishment of 30 large unspecified units. Moscow’s manpower resources and the size of the officer corps remain limited, and these new divisions and brigades are doomed to be understaffed without a significant expansion of the officer corps and massive conscription. The Russian High Command may create an organizational framework to increase the number of drafted soldiers and/or another round of mobilization despite demographic and economic limitations.

Shoigu Has Promised Combined Armies, Divisions, and Brigades – Jamestown

3 – (Mikhail Komin – European Council on Foreign Relations) Vladimir Putin’s ‘historic’ election result demonstrates his absolute control over the administrative system, but could also encourage him to make big political mistakes.

Win big, lose bigger: Why Russia’s sham election result could become Putin’s mistake | ECFR

Russia – Moldova

1 – (Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront Chisinau reflects the Kremlin’s new strategy of territorial fragmentation in Moldova. Moscow is encouraging Russophile parties in Moldova to form a bloc for the upcoming elections.

Putin Lights a Gagauz Fuse Under Moldova (Part One) – Jamestown

2 – (Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia can use the Gagauz autonomy more effectively than Transnistria to destabilize Moldova.The Kremlin is interested in Gagauzia remaining part of Moldova rather than seceding to maintain influence over Moldovan politics. Encouraging Gagauzia to demand upgrades in its autonomy is a likely path to further destabilization.

Putin Lights a Gagaus Fuse Under Moldova (Part Two) – Jamestown

Russia – South Ossetia – Georgia

(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on the situation in South Ossetia than on how such an action would affect its relations with Georgia, the South Caucasus more generally, and the West. Rumblings about an imminent Russian absorption of South Ossetia appear to be a Moscow-led effort to warn Tbilisi and the West about the consequences of rapprochement.

Moscow Will Only Consider Absorbing South Ossetia Amid a Georgian Rapprochement With NATO – Jamestown

Sahel

1 – (J. Peter Pham – Brookings) The state of democracy in Africa, especially in the Sahel—the semi-arid belt connecting North Africa across the Sahara Desert to the tropical savannahs to the south—was the cause of considerable angst in 2023.

To prevent democratic backsliding in the Sahel, establish democratic governance first | Brookings

2 – (Catherine Nzuki – Center for Strategic and International Studies) The National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), Niger’s ruling military government, announced an immediate suspension to its security cooperation with the United States on March 16, just one day after a high-level visit from the State Department and the U.S. Africa Command to Niamey.

The Cost of Paternalism: Sahelian Countries Push Back on the West (csis.org)

South China Sea

(Harshit Prajapati, Prisie Patnayak – East Asia Forum) Philippine President Ferdinand R Marcos Jr aimed to counter China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea by developing maritime cooperation with Vietnam, cultivating strategic partnerships with Japan, Australia and the United States, and pushing for a successful negotiation of a Code of Conduct within ASEAN. But disparity in regional approaches to China, varying domestic policies of Southeast Asian nations, and China’s effective wedge strategy pose significant hurdles to a united front against China’s aggression in the region.

Southeast Asia stymied in South China Sea dispute | East Asia Forum

Summit for Democracy

(Norman Eisen, Jonathan Katz, and Robin J. Lewis – Brookings) The third Summit for Democracy (S4D3) kicked off this week in Seoul, South Korea amid global declines in democracy and the resurgence of authoritarian tendencies. Implementing the commitments made at the S4D3 and other multilateral events is key to fully deliver concrete and sustainable democratic and anti-corruption reforms at the local, national, and global levels. Going forward, the S4D process would benefit from greater involvement of civil society and other stakeholders in the design, monitoring, and implementation of commitments and increased reporting of results.

Advancing Summit for Democracy commitments: Progress and paths forward | Brookings

Taiwan

(Chung-min Tsai, Yves Tiberghien – CIGI) On January 13, Taiwanese voters went to the polls to elect a new president and parliament following a three-way, high-stakes race. Reports of social media interference by China, alongside other forms of direct pressure (economic threats and military manoeuvres), raised the key question: Is Taiwan’s democracy in danger?

Taiwan’s Democracy Has Shown Great Resilience in 2024 – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)

USA

(Daniel S. Hamilton – Brookings) One of the most dangerous deficits the United States faces is not one of trade, values, or military capabilities but a deficit in understanding how we are connected to other societies around the world. The political, economic, and media errors resulting from this deficit can shortchange American consumers, producers, workers, and their families. Commercial connections are a leading case in point. It is remarkable that cross-border trade in goods is still widely considered to be the primary benchmark for international commerce. That measure has been out of date for at least a half-century, and now is completely misleading in a world of extended supply chains, rapid technological change, and revived strategic competition.

Who is America’s top commercial partner? (Hint: It’s not China.) | Brookings

Vietnam

(Viet Dung Trinh – East Asia Forum) Despite having the 12th largest internet user population globally, Vietnam’s cybersecurity vulnerability has increased due to regular cyber-attacks, often attributed to Chinese hackers, causing concerns for national sovereignty, security and domestic stability. In response, the Vietnamese government has launched various cybersecurity strategies and campaigns, established agencies for cybercrime prevention, declined Huawei’s offer for 5G infrastructure development and laid out objectives to improve the national security index by 2025.

Vietnam’s struggle with cyber security | East Asia Forum

Water

(Eliza L. Swedenborg – World Resources Institute) Lake Tana is immense. From a shoreline too distant to see, waves move across the lake, bringing warm, humid air to the city of Bahir Dar in northwest Ethiopia. Further inland, farming communities irrigate their crops — wheat, corn, potatoes, onions — drawing from a reservoir fast-filling with silt. Up in the highlands, the earth is scarred with deep cracks, and household wells run dry. Even here in the headwaters of the Blue Nile, a place historically known for its water abundance, there is increasing water scarcity. Throughout this landscape, the Tana watershed, farming families wonder when the rains will come this year. They are experiencing the impacts of a changing climate firsthand: a water cycle out of sync with centuries of farming tradition.

Global Causes of Local Water Scarcity | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

 

The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)

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