Ricerca per un ‘bussola geostrategica’ – Search for a ‘geostrategic compass’ – Recherche d’une “boussole géostratégique”
La responsabilità del pensiero complesso
Scrivevamo, nella ‘bussola’ di ieri, che occorrono nuove responsabilità. Serve un approccio critico, complesso, che tenga insieme formalità e informalità, prevedibilità e imprevedibilità e che evolva in maniera creativa. La responsabilità, anzitutto, ‘vive’ nella nostra capacità di elaborare un ‘giudizio storico’ in grado di costruire scenari dinamici dall’alto e nel profondo.
La natura che reagisce impetuosamente, provocando traumi e disastri come stiamo vedendo in Italia in questi giorni, ci dice che l’impronta umana ha superato il limite di guardia e che dobbiamo abituarci agli eventi estremi come alluvioni e siccità. Il dato preoccupante, dicono gli esperti, è che tali eventi saranno sempre più imprevedibili in termini d’intensità. Da questo punto di vista, possiamo considerare le reazioni della natura come un paradigma complesso da utilizzare per l’elaborazione di scenari dinamici.
Tutto è in movimento, in radicale trasformazione. Ciò che colpisce, e che molto spesso frena l’azione creativa che sarebbe estremamente necessaria oggi in molti campi, è la fissita degli Stati burocratici rispetto alla imprevedibilità dei processi storici. Lo vediamo rispetto ai fenomeni naturali, alla rivoluzione tecnologica, alle migrazioni e agli impatti che tali fenomeni generano. Mentre, da un lato, abbiamo il ‘costituito’ che domina e determina, dall’altro lato abbiamo il ‘complesso imprevedibile’ che agisce nel profondo e che erode le certezze consolidate, non problematizzate e destinate a franare come i territori colpiti dalle alluvioni.
In ogni campo, allora, il ‘costituito lineare’ diventa il problema. Ciò che consideravamo certo e immutabile viene messo in discussione dal respiro delle storie che ritornano: ed è un respiro talmente forte da diventare una valanga che travolge e che non chiede permesso di fronte a confini del tutto anti-storici.
In primo luogo, le nuove responsabilità sono anzitutto culturali. Scegliere il pensiero complesso non è una scelta ma è una necessità. Non capirlo significa rimanere intrappolati in fortezze novecentesche dalle fondamenta molto fragili e non più adeguate a garantire benessere, giustizia, sicurezza e pace. I cittadini capiscono, ogni giorno di più, che gli Stati burocratici non riescono a proteggerli dalla potenza di ciò che accade e che le democrazie, i sistemi migliori che conosciamo, si rivelano ogni giorno meno efficaci.
(english version)
The responsibility of complex thinking
We wrote in yesterday’s ‘compass’ that new responsibilities are needed. We need a critical, complex approach that holds together formality and informality, predictability and unpredictability, and that evolves creatively. Responsibility, first and foremost, ‘lives’ in our ability to develop a ‘historical judgement’ capable of constructing dynamic scenarios from above and within.
Nature reacting impetuously, causing traumas and disasters as we are seeing in Italy in these days, tells us that the human footprint has exceeded the guard limit and that we must get used to extreme events such as floods and droughts. The worrying fact, experts say, is that such events will be increasingly unpredictable in terms of intensity. From this point of view, we can consider nature’s reactions as a complex paradigm to be used for dynamic scenarios.
Everything is in motion, in radical transformation. What is striking, and what very often holds back the creative action that would be sorely needed today in many fields, is the fixity of bureaucratic States compared to the unpredictability of historical processes. We see this with respect to natural phenomena, the technological revolution, migrations and the impacts these phenomena generate. While, on the one hand, we have the ‘constituted’ that dominates and determines, on the other hand, we have the ‘unpredictable complex’ that acts in the depths and erodes established certainties, unproblematised and destined to collapse like the territories hit by floods.
In every field, then, the linear ‘constituted’ becomes the problem. What we used to consider certain and immutable is challenged by the breath of returning histories: and it is a breath so strong that it becomes an avalanche that overwhelms and does not ask for permission in the face of completely anti-historical boundaries.
First and foremost, the new responsibilities are cultural. Choosing complex thinking is not a choice but a necessity. Not understanding it means remaining trapped in twentieth-century fortresses with very fragile foundations that are no longer adequate to guarantee well-being, justice, security and peace. Citizens understand, more and more every day, that bureaucratic States cannot protect them from the power of what is happening and that democracies, the best systems we know, are proving less and less effective every day.
(version française)
La responsabilité de la pensée complexe
Nous avons écrit dans la “boussole” d’hier que de nouvelles responsabilités sont nécessaires. Nous avons besoin d’une approche critique et complexe qui tienne compte du formel et de l’informel, de la prévisibilité et de l’imprévisibilité, et qui évolue de manière créative. La responsabilité, avant tout, “vit” dans notre capacité à développer un “jugement historique” capable d’élaborer des scénarios dynamiques à partir du haut et de l’intérieur.
La nature qui réagit de manière impétueuse, provoquant des traumatismes et des catastrophes comme nous le voyons ces jours-ci en Italie, nous indique que l’empreinte humaine a dépassé la limite de garde et que nous devons nous habituer à des événements extrêmes tels que les inondations et les sécheresses. Ce qui est inquiétant, selon les experts, c’est que ces événements seront de plus en plus imprévisibles en termes d’intensité. De ce point de vue, nous pouvons considérer les réactions de la nature comme un paradigme complexe à utiliser pour les scénarios dynamiques.
Tout est en mouvement, en transformation radicale. Ce qui est frappant, et ce qui freine très souvent l’action créatrice dont on aurait tant besoin aujourd’hui dans de nombreux domaines, c’est la fixité des États bureaucratiques par rapport à l’imprévisibilité des processus historiques. C’est le cas des phénomènes naturels, de la révolution technologique, des migrations et des impacts que ces phénomènes génèrent. Alors que, d’un côté, nous avons le “constitué” qui domine et détermine, de l’autre, nous avons le “complexe imprévisible” qui agit en profondeur et érode les certitudes établies, non problématisées et destinées à s’effondrer comme les territoires frappés par les inondations.
Dans tous les domaines, c’est donc le “constitué linéaire” qui devient le problème. Ce que nous considérions comme certain et immuable est remis en question par le souffle des histoires qui reviennent : un souffle si fort qu’il devient une avalanche qui submerge et ne demande pas la permission face à des frontières totalement anti-historiques.
Les nouvelles responsabilités sont avant tout culturelles. Choisir la pensée complexe n’est pas un choix mais une nécessité. Ne pas la comprendre, c’est rester enfermé dans des forteresses du XXe siècle aux fondations très fragiles qui ne suffisent plus à garantir le bien-être, la justice, la sécurité et la paix. Les citoyens comprennent, chaque jour davantage, que les États bureaucratiques ne peuvent les protéger de la puissance de ce qui se passe et que les démocraties, les meilleurs systèmes que nous connaissons, se révèlent chaque jour moins efficaces.
Prospettive dai think tank – Perspectives from think tanks – Perspectives des think tanks
Worlds
India
Meenal Tatpati (per Observer Research Foundation) scrive dell’implementazione del Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in India – Meenal Tatpati (for Observer Research Foundation) writes about the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in India – Meenal Tatpati (pour l’Observer Research Foundation) écrit sur la mise en œuvre du Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework en Inde – Target 3 of Kunming Montreal Protocol and its implementation in India | ORF (orfonline.org)
Japan
Adam P. Liff scrive che sono esagerate le interpretazioni secondo cui Tokyo vorrebbe raddoppiare gli investimenti per la difesa – Adam P. Liff writes that interpretations that Tokyo would like to double its defence investment are exaggerated – Adam P. Liff écrit que les interprétations selon lesquelles Tokyo voudrait doubler ses investissements en matière de défense sont exagérées – No, Japan is not planning to “double its defense budget” (brookings.edu)
Japan – India
Harsh V. Pant (per Observer Research Foundation) sottolinea l’importanza di un dialogo strategico fra Tokyo e New Delhi – Harsh V. Pant (for Observer Research Foundation) emphasises the importance of a strategic dialogue between Tokyo and New Delhi – Harsh V. Pant (pour l’Observer Research Foundation) souligne l’importance d’un dialogue stratégique entre Tokyo et New Delhi – ‘New’ Japan, ‘New’ India Join Forces to Tackle Global Disorder | ORF (orfonline.org)
Syria – Arab League – Iran – Israel
Yoni Ben Menachem scrive del ritorno della Siria, legata all’Iran, nella Lega Araba. I pericoli per Israele – Yoni Ben Menachem writes about the return of Iran-linked Syria to the Arab League. The dangers for Israel – Yoni Ben Menachem évoque le retour de la Syrie, liée à l’Iran, au sein de la Ligue arabe. Les dangers pour Israël – Iran infiltrated the Arab League (jcpa.org)
Tunisia – MENA Region
Francis Ghilès (per CIDOB) scrive della difficile situazione della Tunisia e della regione MENA dopo le primavere arabe – Francis Ghilès (for CIDOB) writes about the difficult situation in Tunisia and the MENA region after the Arab Springs – Francis Ghilès (pour le CIDOB) écrit sur la situation difficile de la Tunisie et de la région MENA après les printemps arabes – CIDOB – Why does the west so often get Tunisia wrong?
Turkey
Galip Dalay (per Chatham House) scrive della Turchia di Erdogan, in caso di vittoria: centralità nelle relazioni internazionali, capacità di fronteggiare le potenze globali, autonomia nella politica estera e di sicurezza – Galip Dalay (for Chatham House) writes of Erdogan’s Turkey, in the event of victory: centrality in international relations, ability to cope with global powers, autonomy in foreign and security policy – Galip Dalay (pour Chatham House) écrit à propos de la Turquie d’Erdogan, en cas de victoire : centralité dans les relations internationales, capacité à faire face aux puissances mondiales, autonomie en matière de politique étrangère et de sécurité – Turkey’s politics on the cusp of generational change | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine – USA – NATO
I leader degli Stati Uniti e della NATO stanno discutendo un accordo di sicurezza in stile israeliano per l’Ucraina, secondo Russia Matters – US and NATO leaders are discussing an Israeli-style security arrangement for Ukraine, according to Russia Matters – Selon Russia Matters, les dirigeants des États-Unis et de l’OTAN discutent d’un accord de sécurité de type israélien pour l’Ukraine – Russia Analytical Report, May 15-22, 2023 | Russia Matters
USA
Joshua P. Meltzer scrive del lavoro in corso negli USA per la regolamentazione dell’IA generativa. Per aprire orizzonti globali – Joshua P. Meltzer writes about the ongoing work in the US to regulate generative AI. To open global horizons – Joshua P. Meltzer évoque les travaux en cours aux États-Unis pour réglementer l’IA générative. Ouvrir des horizons mondiaux – The US government should regulate AI if it wants to lead on international AI governance (brookings.edu)
USA – Europe
Emily Benson (per Elcano Royal Institute) scrive sui punti di convergenza e sulle differenze tra le visioni geoeconomiche di USA ed Europa – Emily Benson (for Elcano Royal Institute) writes about the points of convergence and differences between the geo-economic visions of the US and Europe – Emily Benson (pour l’ Elcano Royal Institute) écrit sur les points de convergence et les différences entre les visions géoéconomiques des États-Unis et de l’Europe – The geopolitics of economic and climate security: transatlantic trends – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
USA – Israel
Yuval Eylon scrive del progetto di legge presentato al Congresso USA per una strategia navale che includa un’alleanza per combattere il terrorismo navale in Medio Oriente. Israele è l’attore chiave nella regione – Yuval Eylon writes about the bill submitted to the US Congress for a naval strategy including an alliance to combat naval terrorism in the Middle East. Israel is the key player in the region – Yuval Eylon parle du projet de loi soumis au Congrès américain pour une stratégie navale incluant une alliance pour combattre le terrorisme naval au Moyen-Orient. Israël est l’acteur clé de la région – The Maritime Arena: Strengthening the Abraham Accords and the Anti-Iranian Alliance | INSS
Uzbekistan
Claudia Palazzo (per Jamestown Foundation) scrive sulla complessità della riforma costituzionale in Uzbekistan – Claudia Palazzo (for Jamestown Foundation) writes about the complexity of constitutional reform in Uzbekistan – Claudia Palazzo (pour Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur la complexité de la réforme constitutionnelle en Ouzbékistan – A ‘People’s Constitution’ for a ‘New Uzbekistan’? – Jamestown
War in Ukraine
Ksenia Kirillova (per Jamestown Foundation) scrive della Russia e del nuovo SMERSH, la repressiva organizzazione di controspionaggio sovietica – Ksenia Kirillova (for Jamestown Foundation) writes about Russia and the new SMERSH, the repressive Soviet counter-espionage organisation – Ksenia Kirillova (pour Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur la Russie et le nouveau SMERSH, l’organisation soviétique répressive de contre-espionnage – Ukrainian Sabotage Operations Could Spell Increased Confrontation Between Russian Special Services – Jamestown
Topics
Blue economy – G20
Un report di Observer Research Foundation descrive nuove modalità di finanziamento della blue economy – An Observer Research Foundation report describes new ways of financing the blue economy – Un rapport de l’Observer Research Foundation décrit de nouveaux moyens de financer l’économie bleue – Generating Finance for Blue Economy Transition | ORF (orfonline.org)
Climate action – G20
Un report di Observer Research Foundation analizza l’importanza della Global Climate Alliance – An Observer Research Foundation report analyses the importance of the Global Climate Alliance – Un rapport de l’Observer Research Foundation analyse l’importance de la Global Climate Alliance – A Global Climate Alliance to Accelerate Climate Action: Proposals to the G20 | ORF (orfonline.org)
Energy transition
Un report di Observer Research Foundation si focalizza sulla sostenibilità della transizione energetica e sull’importanza dei minerali critici – An Observer Research Foundation report focuses on the sustainability of the energy transition and the importance of critical minerals – Un rapport de l’Observer Research Foundation met l’accent sur la durabilité de la transition énergétique et l’importance des minéraux critiques – Ensuring Sustainable Supply of Critical Minerals for a Clean, Just and Inclusive Energy Transition | ORF (orfonline.org)
Global order
Samir Saran (per Observer Research Foundation) scrive delle frontiere della geopolitica – Samir Saran (for Observer Research Foundation) writes about the frontiers of geopolitics – Samir Saran (pour l’Observer Research Foundation) écrit sur les frontières de la géopolitique – The new world – shaped by self-interest | ORF (orfonline.org)
G7
Abdellah Hmamouche e Jay Hawkins (per WEF) scrivono degli impegni del G7 per la transizione ecologica e l’economia circolare – Abdellah Hmamouche and Jay Hawkins (for WEF) write about the G7 commitments to ecological transition and the circular economy – Abdellah Hmamouche et Jay Hawkins (pour le WEF) écrivent sur les engagements du G7 en faveur de la transition écologique et de l’économie circulaire – 3 key net zero takeaways from the G7 summit in Japan | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Brendon J Cannon e Kei Hakata (per RUSI) scrivono della scelta del Giappone di aprire il G7 di Hiroshima ai partner in via di sviluppo, decisivi per un ordine internazionale fondate sulle regole – Brendon J Cannon and Kei Hakata (for RUSI) write about Japan’s choice to open the G7 in Hiroshima to developing partners, decisive for a rules-based international order – Brendon J. Cannon et Kei Hakata (pour RUSI) écrivent sur le choix du Japon d’ouvrir le G7 à Hiroshima aux partenaires en développement, ce qui est décisif pour un ordre international fondé sur des règles – Japan as the Global South’s Advocate: Why the ‘Rule of Law’ Benefits All | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Creon Butler (per Chatham House) scrive delle conclusioni del G7 di Hiroshima con focus, in particolare, sulla gestione delle future relazioni economiche con la Cina – Creon Butler (for Chatham House) writes about the conclusions of the G7 in Hiroshima with focus, in particular, on managing future economic relations with China – Creon Butler (pour Chatham House) écrit sur les conclusions du G7 à Hiroshima en mettant l’accent, en particulier, sur la gestion des futures relations économiques avec la Chine – G7 China statement could enhance global economic stability | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Pavel K. Baev (per Jamestown Foundation) scrive dei risultati del G7 di Hiroshima. Al centro il contenimento della Cina nell’Asia-Pacifico e il porre le condizioni per la vittoria dell’Ucraina – Pavel K. Baev (for Jamestown Foundation) writes about the results of the G7 in Hiroshima. At the centre is the containment of China in the Asia-Pacific and the setting of conditions for Ukraine’s victory – Pavel K. Baev (pour Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur les résultats du G7 à Hiroshima. Au centre, l’endiguement de la Chine en Asie-Pacifique et la mise en place des conditions de la victoire de l’Ukraine – Summit in Hiroshima Charts Ending for War in Ukraine – Jamestown
Fred Kempe scrive del G7 (+ Unione Europea) unito a sostegno dell’Ucraina con un problema all’orizzonte: le crescenti difficoltà degli Stati Uniti – Fred Kempe writes of the G7 (+ EU) united in support of Ukraine with a problem on the horizon: the growing difficulties of the US – Fred Kempe parle du G7 (+ UE) uni dans le soutien à l’Ukraine avec un problème à l’horizon : les difficultés croissantes des Etats-Unis – G7 triumphs and the debt ceiling quagmire provide a glimpse into competing futures for US global leadership – Atlantic Council
