Geostrategic magazine (february 14, 2024)

LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

 

The Global Eye

Ricerca complessa in tempi ‘nuovi’ / Complex research in ‘new’ times (Marco Emanuele)

Intelligenza artificiale e geopolitica. Luca De Biase (War Room Innovaction) in dialogo con Marco Emanuele

IA sovrane. Ogni Paese deve pensarci, e in fretta, dice il Ceo di Nvidia (Marzia Giglioli)

Il Medio Oriente, crocevia del mondo. Carlo Rebecchi dialoga con l’Ambasciatore Mario Boffo

USA: guerra ai deepfake. La paura è un caos politico. Fuori legge i falsi robocaller elettorali (Marzia Giglioli)

La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)

L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)

Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)

Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)

Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)

 

Daily from global think tanks and open sources

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

Africa

1 – (Belinda Archibong – Brookings) As the gender gap in education shrinks all around the world, and especially in Africa, there is a growing question on how to translate these gains for girls and women into meaningful paid employment. Understanding how to leverage this growth in educated women into a skilled workforce is a crucial policy question in a continent where the current number of labor market participants in sub-Saharan Africa—600 million—will double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100, at which time the region will account for 40% of the world’s labor force.

How to reduce gender inequality in labor markets in Africa | Brookings

2 – (Carla Rivero – World Economic Forum) Global research capacity is not distributed equitably, with Africa particularly under-served. Funding for African post-doctoral research is improving, but this is not matched by opportunities later. Equitable international research partnerships that make optimum use of local expertise can level the playing field.

Global research capacity is not distributed equitably, with Africa particularly under-served | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Asia

(Genevieve Donnellon-May – ASPI The Strategist) In the last few years Asia’s food security has suffered a series of crises induced by conflict, climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic, causing great disruptions to food supply systems and increasing the number of people experiencing food insecurity. Now, pressure at four global ‘food chokepoints’—in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal due to geopolitical unrest, and the Panama Canal and the Mississippi River due to drought—are threatening Asia’s food security even more.

The impact of global food chokepoint pressures on Asia’s food security | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Australia

1 – (James Garlick – ASPI The Strategist) The navy is under-gunned for the strategic circumstances Australia faces. For years, commentators have criticised its existing and planned platforms for possessing too few missile cells. Many of them have suggested that the best remedy is to commission a significant number of small warships or corvettes. They argue that small, fast, manoeuvrable ships would be effective in the narrow straits and shallow waters on Australia’s northern approaches. Other experts question this assertion. Despite the unsettled nature of the debate, it is believed that the surface fleet review about to be released by the government endorses a fleet of corvettes. But, historically such ships have not delivered the potent strategic impact Australia needs.

Are missile cruisers a better option than corvettes? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

2 – (Ben Scott – Lowy The Interpreter) It’s often said that Australia faces “the most challenging strategic environment since the Second World War” but the government’s approach to national security decision making has not developed much in the time since.

National security decision making: Learn from experience, and science | Lowy Institute

Australia – Cambodia – Laos – Thailand

(Hadrien Saperstein – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia’s diplomacy with Southeast Asia is poised to take centre stage in March as it hosts the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne. The Summit provides the Australian government with an opportunity to improve its standing with three mainland Southeast Asian states – Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand – in areas of security, economy, and education.

ASEAN summit a chance for Australia to reach out to mainland Southeast Asia | Lowy Institute

China – India

(Manoj Kewalramani – ThinkChina) Sino-Indian relations have languished in a state of suspended animation for four years. A return to stability in the relationship would require, at the least, sustained high-level engagement.

India and China’s volatile new status quo, Politics News – ThinkChina

China – Russia – Latin America and the Carribean – USA 

(Matthew Kroenig, Jason Marczak, Jeffrey Cimmino – Atlantic Council) The United States and its allies are engaged in a global strategic competition with China and Russia. The primary theaters for this contest are Europe and the Indo-Pacific, but China and Russia also are increasing their malign influence in the Global South, including Latin America and the Caribbean. Their malign actions threaten the United States in its own hemisphere and must be a high priority for US foreign and defense policy.

A strategy to counter malign Chinese and Russian influence in Latin America and the Caribbean – Atlantic Council

China – Taiwan – Pacific

(Henryk Szadziewski, Graeme Smith, Daria Impiombato, Tarcisius Kabutaulaka – ASPI The Strategist) On 14 January, Nauru re-established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) ending nearly 20 years of links with Taiwan. The news came as a surprise to some, especially since former Nauru President Russ Joseph Kun visited Taipei with great fanfare in October 2023. Nevertheless, Nauru’s switch to Beijing was certainly welcome to Chinese companies one of whom, China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC), has been working in Nauru on a port development project since May 2023.

How PRC companies influence diplomatic switches from Taiwan in the Pacific | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

China – USA

(Jianyong Yue – ThinkChina) Many in the Chinese world have unquestionably accepted the idea that friendly relations with the US will guarantee a country’s prosperity. However, despite the honeymoon period between China and the US in the 1980s, China was still not endowed preferential treatment. Meanwhile, many countries have seen immense development even without the help of the US.

Will following the US bring peace and prosperity to China? , Politics News – ThinkChina

India

1 – (Gordon Arthur – Defense News) The Indian Army has launched a tender for 155mm towed howitzers, with suppliers able to register to compete for a contract by March 8.

India takes next step toward new 155mm towed howitzers (defensenews.com)

2 – (World Resources Institute) Mumbai, Jaipur and Kochi have implemented more than 30 nature-based projects over the past three years.

Indian Cities Pioneer Nature-based Solutions and Inspire National Climate Action | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

India – Australia

(Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan – ASPI The Strategist) India recognises that its ambition to be a global power cannot be achieved unless it becomes technologically advanced. Indian leaders have known since independence that technology is key to developing the country and are very conscious of the need to catch the next technological revolution. India hopes that Australia, like many other Indian partners, will help New Delhi acquire the technologies it needs through direct transfers and collaborative work.

India-Australia cooperation on technology  | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Indonesia

1 – (World Resources Institute) Since its establishment in November 2022, 80 companies in Indonesia have joined the Net Zero Hub. Forty have completed GHG accounting bootcamps to learn to calculate their emissions, while 30 have worked toward setting net-zero emissions targets with support from the CAP. This resulted in 20 new commitments to the Science-based Targets initiative (SBTi) in one year.

Indonesian Companies Accelerate Industrial Decarbonization | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

2 – (World Resources Institute) In 2021, the Jakarta government issued regulations on management and protection of trees, as well as the provision and utilization of parks. These regulations are designed to ensure more equal distribution of green spaces and effective tree-planting. Jakarta has subsequently established 54 new parks since 2022 and planted more than 65,000 urban trees.

Jakarta Creates 50+ New Parks to Boost Climate Resilience | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

Indonesia – Australia

(Hilman Palaon – Lowy The Interpreter) Millions of Indonesians are heading to the polls today to choose their next leader, and those residing in Australia have already delivered their democratic right. About 35,000 Indonesians in Australia are registered to vote and last Saturday had the chance to cast their ballots. Admittedly, it’s a tiny proportion of an estimated 200 million voters back home, but this participation in the democratic process is nonetheless important, especially with two main issues that resonate deeply with many in the diaspora: dual citizenship and Australia-Indonesia relations.

Indonesians abroad exercise their right to vote | Lowy Institute

Madagascar

(World Resources Institute) Use of the Forest Watcher app throughout Madagascar’s National Parks dramatically improved forest monitoring, allowing for swifter responses to deforestation. For example, in the Kirindy Mité National Park, the number of fire points dropped from 33 in 2020 to 3 in 2022 thanks in large part to park rangers’ use of the Forest Watcher app.

Research, Technology and Policy Combine to Protect Madagascar’s Forests | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

South China Sea

(Wong Siew Fong – ThinkChina) With the recent statement by ASEAN foreign ministers on maintaining and promoting stability in the maritime sphere in Southeast Asia, unease caused by rising tensions in the South China Sea is once again coming to the fore. How is the situation in the South China Sea set to develop in the coming months? Would the upcoming US presidential election have a major impact?

[Big read] Protracted turbulence ahead in the South China Sea, Politics News – ThinkChina

Taiwan

(Jude Blanchette, Ryan Hass, Lily McElwee – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Deterring Beijing’s growing threats to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait will require a strong international coalition of partners to support Taiwan and send credible warning signals to China. To deepen international cooperation on capacity building and deterrence, Washington will need a compelling narrative for why Taiwan matters that instills urgency across a wide range of capitals—and avoids limiting engagement through overly militaristic framings of the challenge.

Building International Support for Taiwan (csis.org)

USA

1 – (Niels Graham – Brookings) Last April, at a speech at the Brookings Institution, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated: “We will unapologetically pursue our industrial strategy at home, but we are unambiguously committed to not leaving our friends behind.” Nearly one year later, it is clear the Biden Administration is following through—at least with the first half of his promise.

The IRA and CHIPS Act are supercharging US manufacturing construction – Atlantic Council

2 – (Blair Levin – Brookings) Almost a year ago, Brookings Metro and other experts were warning that, without action, the United States was likely take the biggest step any country has ever taken to widen rather than close its digital divide.

The end of the Affordable Connectivity Program is almost here, threatening to widen the digital divide | Brookings

3 – (Joseph Parilla, Glencora Haskins, Lily Bermel, Lisa Hansmann, Mark Muro, Ryan Cummings, Brian Deese – Brookings) Recent federal legislation—namely, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act—was enacted to incentivize investments in several sectors deemed important for America’s future economic growth and national security. Coinciding with the passage of this legislation, the United States is experiencing a $525 billion private investment surge in “strategic sectors,” which we define as clean energy, semiconductors and electronics, biomanufacturing, and other advanced industries.

Strategic sector investments are poised to benefit distressed US counties | Brookings

4 – (Courtney Albon – Defense News) The Space Force said it will establish a Space Futures Command to develop and validate forward-looking concepts and emerging missions for the service. Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman announced the creation of the command Feb. 12 as part of a organizational changes meant to position the Air Force and Space Force to better deter and counter threats from China. The Army has had a futures command to run modernization efforts since 2018.

Space Force forms Futures Command to validate mission needs (defensenews.com)

5 – (Colin Demarest – Defense News) A Northrop Grumman unmanned aircraft system is indispensable to the U.S. Navy’s future ability to monitor actions around the world, share insights about them and respond accordingly, a service leader said. The autonomous MQ-4C Triton intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting drone can fly for more than 24 hours at a time and at altitudes greater than 10 miles, with a range of more than 8,000 nautical miles. Sensors aboard can cue onto electronic signals and adversary communications, and that information can be relayed to warships and other aircraft.

Airborne Triton drone key to Navy’s signal goals, Clapperton says (defensenews.com)

6 – The chief of naval operations is bullish on the Navy’s ability to operate a manned-unmanned fleet within the next decade or so, thanks to the prototyping and learning happening today. “The promise of unmanned is actually here,” as the Navy today experiments with unmanned systems in U.S. 5th Fleet in the Middle East, U.S. 4th Fleet in Central and South America, and U.S. 7th Fleet in the Pacific, Adm. Lisa Franchetti said Tuesday at the WEST 2024 conference in San Diego.

Franchetti confident prototypes will usher in manned-unmanned fleet (defensenews.com)

7 – The U.S. Navy is incorporating lessons learned from its Red Sea engagements with Houthi missiles and drones, and are using them to improve tactics for seeing and eliminating threats, service leaders said Tuesday. Vice Adm. Brendan McLane, the commander of Naval Surface Forces, said U.S. ships in the Red Sea are sending data about their engagements with Houthi threats back to the Naval Surface and Mine Warfighting Development Center, for the experts there to share ideas for how to best tune radars to optimize performance, as an example.

US Navy updating tactics for sensors, weapons based on Houthi attacks (defensenews.com)

8 – (World Resouces Institute) Research shows that through 2022, U.S. hospital systems committed to the Coolfood Pledge — which serve 31 million meals per year in total — reduced their greenhouse gas emissions per plate of food by 21%. This is faster than the pace needed to achieve their 2030 target.

US Hospitals Reduce Emissions Through Plant-based Foods | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

War in Ukraine

1 – (Stephen Sestanovich – Council on Foreign Relations) In last week’s rare interview with a Western media figure, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to combine a more reasonable tone with endless reminders of why Western governments think he’s not really interested in negotiating an end to the war with Ukraine.

What Tucker Carlson’s Putin Interview Means for the War in Ukraine | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

2 – (Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo – Defense News) Despite losing on average hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery systems each month, Russia has been able to replenish its inventory by regenerating thousands of stored vehicles in 2023 — an attrition rate experts expect Moscow could handle for several more year. Last year, Russia reactivated from storage at least 1,180-1,280 main battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, according to “The Military Balance 2024″ report unveiled Tuesday by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

Russia forced to ‘sacrifice quality for quantity’ in war with Ukraine (defensenews.com)

3 – (Sam Skove – Defense One) While Europe is getting faster at making artillery shells, orders placed for Ukraine still take a year or more to reach the country, according to the Estonian defense ministry.

It takes Europe at least a year to fill a Ukrainian order for artillery shells – Defense One

Perspectives

Climate Action – (Alvaro Lario – World Economic Forum) Over $2.5 billion was pledged at COP28 to support food security while combatting climate change. Small-scale farmers are responsible for up to 70% of the food produced in low- and middle-income countries. We must listen to the needs and priorities of smallholders or risk the collapse of agricultural systems that sustain billions of people across the world.

Small-scale farmers can teach us a lot about climate change | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Climate Action – (World Resources Institute) The Partnership Action Fund has helped more than 50 countries begin turning NDC targets into reality. As of January 2024, the NDC Partnership disbursed $16.4 million to 54 nations — more than half of which are least developed countries or small island developing states — as well as one regional organization. This support is catalytic, helping to complement and unlock the $1.7 billion in support provided to low-income countries directly by NDC Partnership members.

More than 50 Vulnerable Countries Advance Climate Action | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

Climate Action – (World Resources Institute) The Nature Crime Alliance was formally launched in August 2023. Founding partners included the governments of Gabon, Norway and the United States; the UN Office on Drugs and Crime; INTERPOL; the Global Environment Facility; the International Union for the Conservation of Nature; Indigenous Peoples’ Rights International; and many international and regional NGOs.

New Nature Crime Alliance Forms to Combat Crimes Against People and Planet | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

Climate Action – (World Resources Institute) National climate ambitions have been hampered by a lack of understanding of the impacts of the transition to a low-carbon economy as well as the consequences of inaction. Amid legitimate concerns regarding transitional impacts, financing needs, and the institutional and political constraints to low-carbon policy implementation, knowledge and analytical skill gaps prevent countries from increasing necessary ambition on climate and environmental targets consistent with global goals. In this Technical Note, we present the green economy model (GEM), which aims to simultaneously improve people’s understanding of complex climate, environmental, and socioeconomic linkages; equip decision-makers with adequate tools for policy development; and help close coordination gaps and build technical capacity for low-carbon policymaking. It is a practical guide for local policymakers, experts, and academics to understand the model structures and considerations for employing GEM for green economic policy analysis.

Informing National Climate Action with the Green Economy Model: A Technical Description of the Structures and Processes | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

Energy Transition – (Benedikt Sobotka – World Economic Forum) Mining is key to the net-zero transition for its role in extracting the critical minerals essential to green tech, like batteries and renewable energy. But as early as 2030, our mines will produce only about half of the cobalt and lithium and around 80% of copper required. Making up that deficit in production requires the mining industry to be bold in its search for new deposits, investing in its people, and in new technologies.

The mining industry must be bold in the race to net zero | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Global Economy – (Aaron Klein – Brookings) A paper analyzes governments’ usage of payment systems to achieve non-economic policy objectives. Payment systems are primarily thought to function to maximize economic growth. The U.S. dollar’s status as world reserve currency provides America a unique ability to use the payment system to achieve national objectives besides economic growth. America has increasingly relied on the payment system to achieve non-economic objectives, mostly in the realm of foreign policy but not exclusively. The paper analyzes the growing usage of payment systems as a tool for projecting international power and achieving domestic political goals, with a focus on the Western response to Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine.

Payment systems’ changing role from economic growth to the new foreign policy lever | Brookings

Global Poverty – (Roland Rajah, Ahmed Albayrak – Lowy The Interpreter) The world must return its focus to the fight against global poverty. The Covid-19 pandemic pushed millions more into extreme poverty while the global economic recovery thereafter has seen poorer countries left behind. The World Bank says the first of the Sustainable Development Goals to end extreme poverty by 2030 will not be met, projecting 574 million people – nearly 7 percent of the world – to still be living on less than US$2.15 a day, or what is known as the extreme poverty line.

Global poverty is still a massive problem – no matter how you count it | Lowy Institute

Global Water Security – (Zane Swanson, Sarah B. Grace – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Today, global water demand already outstrips availability, with at least half of the global population experiencing highly water-stressed conditions. That is, they live in a region of the world that is highly water stressed for at least one month of the year.

Troubling Waters: Understanding Water Security (csis.org)

Health Equity / Cities – (Ann Aerts, Diana Rodríguez Franco – World Economic Forum) Improving health and health equity for vulnerable populations requires addressing the social determinants of health. Research and practice increasingly point to the role of cities in promoting health equity or reversing health inequities. Place-based strategies to address health inequities can lead to meaningful improvements for vulnerable populations.

Data and density: Two tools to boost health equity in cities | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

 

The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)

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