From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Climate Action, Bangladesh, BRICS, Eurasia, Europe-India, Europe-Turkey-USA, India, India-Africa, India-China, North Korea, Syria, USA-China
Climate Action
(Himani Agrawal – Vivekananda International Foundation) As the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 24, developing nations were again left grappling with a profound sense of betrayal. Quoted as the “Finance COP,” it was expected to deliver meaningful commitments on climate finance. Instead, it exposed the glaring inadequacies of Global North cooperation to address the pressing challenges of climate change, especially in the Global South. – Justice Deferred: The Global South’s Fight for Climate Equity | Vivekananda International Foundation
Bangladesh
(Anchita Borthakur – Vivekananda International Foundation) The year 2024 marked a period of intense political unrest for Bangladesh, one defined by sharp political polarization, economic struggles, and significant shifts in governance. From the re-election of Sheikh Hasina at the beginning of the year to the dramatic fall of her regime, Bangladesh found itself at a critical juncture. The year was marked by mass protests, the rise of opposition coalitions, and a new phase in its political landscape. This article explores the key events and challenges that shaped Bangladesh in 2024, focusing on the political developments, economic challenges, and its implications for the future of the nation. – Bangladesh in 2024: A Year of Political Turmoil and Transformation | Vivekananda International Foundation
BRICS
(Soumya Bhowmick – Observer Research Foundation) The year 2024 has witnessed significant developments in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc, marking a defining chapter in its evolution. As global power dynamics continue to shift amidst economic turbulence, geopolitical conflicts, and technological advancements, BRICS has captured the world’s attention as a potential counterweight to Western-led institutions. With its ambitious expansion efforts to include six new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Argentina—BRICS appears poised to reshape the contours of global governance. Argentina declined its invitation, while Saudi Arabia’s membership remains dubious, balancing its ties with BRICS, China, and Russia and its relationship with the United States. However, the question remains: Can the bloc move beyond rhetoric to deliver substantive outcomes? – BRICS: Will Actions Follow Words?
Eurasia
(Pravesh Kumar Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation – 7 January 2025) The year 2024 is shaping up to be a critical juncture for Russia and Central Asia, characterized by significant geopolitical upheavals, economic volatility, and shifting social dynamics. These changes are not merely adjustments; they are fundamentally altering the very foundation of the region, exposing vulnerabilities and presenting both urgent challenges and precarious opportunities. While Russia struggles to manage its growing dissonance due to international conflicts and escalating internal security threats, Central Asia is becoming increasingly pivotal. Yet, it risks falling victim to external pressures and dependency. This article critically examines these regions’ major developments and threats, highlighting the dire implications of inaction and superficial responses. In light of these complexities, a few scenarios and recommendations will be proposed for the upcoming year to navigate this turbulent landscape effectively. – Eurasia: Reflections on 2024 and Outlook for 2025 | Vivekananda International Foundation
Europe – India
(Amrita Narlikar, Gokul Sahni – Observer Research Foundation) The strategic compact between India and the European Union (EU) is coming up for renewal in 2025. While the Roadmap to 2025, launched in 2020, was an important step in the relationship, the strategic partnership remains largely underwhelming. The unfulfilled potential becomes a matter of even more urgent concern today, amidst the geopolitical turbulence and geoeconomic challenges confronting the world. As negotiators from both India and the EU come together to update the partnership, this brief makes the case for an ambitious new agenda. It identifies six key areas where the EU and India urgently need to join forces; doing so will not only be of advantage to the signatories but will also have global consequences. To overcome some of the past (and future) difficulties in negotiations, the brief offers some important how-not-to’s for the EU. – Renewing the EU-India Strategic Compact: Doing Better, Doing More, and Key How Not To’s
Europe – Turkey – USA
(Galip Dalay – Chatham House) With Donald Trump’s forthcoming inauguration, the question of the future of the European security order has become more pressing – and so has the need for clarity about Turkey’s place and role within that order. In this respect, Trump’s return might provide much needed impetus for the European Union (EU) and Turkey to finally engage in more serious dialogues on European security and on broader foreign and security policy cooperation. – With Trump’s inauguration, the EU and Turkey must finally get serious about security cooperation | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
India
(Namrata Dhasmana – Vivekananda International Foundation) The toxic nexus of narco-terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir intersecting the conflict economy is emerging as a significant threat to global security. This fuels violence, instability, and corruption and steers back the efforts promoting peace, prosperity, and economic growth. The Narco terrorism has different motivations and agendas. Their only aim is monetary gain and work without interference from the regulatory or law enforcement bodies. – The Intersection of Conflict Economy and Narco-Terrorism: Fuelling Violence | Vivekananda International Foundation
India – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) The year 2024 concluded with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Nigeria, a tour marking a significant milestone in India-Africa relations for multiple reasons. This was the first visit by any Indian Prime Minister to Nigeria in 17 years; this was also Modi’s first Africa visit since he was reelected in May 2024. During his first two terms, Modi travelled to 10 African countries, including Uganda, where he delivered a landmark speech outlining India’s vision of Africa. Furthermore, during his trip to Nigeria, he was conferred the second-highest national award of Nigeria, the ‘Grand Commander of the Order of the Niger’, making him only the second foreign dignitary to be conferred the award after the British Queen Victoria (in 1969). – A pivotal year in India-Africa ties
India – China
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) On January 1, 2025, the Maldives finally implemented its free trade agreement (FTA) with China after it came into being seven years ago. The opposition then was very critical of the agreement as it was rushed through parliament without much debate. India voiced its concerns, fearing the FTA would allow Chinese goods into Indian markets. As China continues its talks with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka about similar agreements, India needs a coherent economic strategy to engage with its neighbours. – India Shouldn’t Ignore Growing Chinese Trade In Neighbourhood
North Korea
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) The dawn of 2025 offers a crucial moment to reflect on how 2024 proved remarkably advantageous for North Korea. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as an unexpected economic lifeline for Pyongyang, while simultaneously drawing the regime out of its diplomatic isolation. North Korea’s cyber operations throughout 2024 have also yielded significant gains for the regime, which continues to view its cyber capabilities as a vital strategic asset. – 2024: A jackpot year for North Korea’s cyber criminals
Syria
(Rob Geist Pinfold – RUSI) Bashar al-Assad’s flight from Syria marks the end of an era, but the country’s fragmented future is now being shaped by competing foreign and internal powers. – The Coming Fight for Syria | Royal United Services Institute
(Anil Trigunayat – Vivekananda International Foundation) Half a century of Assad regime ended on December 8. The rapidity, precision and speed with which the Hayat tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and its allies captured Damascus and all major cities on the historic M5 route without much opposition by Assad forces, that really melted away, is quite telling. The tumultuous popular support and welcome the Jolani forces received only confirmed the ill effects and deep-seated anger against an autocratic regime. Euphoria and expectations of the masses and the 13 million internally and externally displaced Syrians and refugees would require genuine conciliatory efforts and significant international support in this diverse and complex ancient society. Fears of minorities in Shia, Alawites, Druze and Christians as well as former Assad supporters will need to be allayed. No doubt the geopolitics among the various regional and global actors will exploit the fault lines while HTS leader Mohammed Al Sharaa @ Jolani (formerly of ISIS and Al Qaeda notoriety) and his interim government are overtly adopting an inclusive and justice and reconciliation driven policies. But how much religious and other freedom they will in reality accord to the diverse and modern Syrians especially women will also impact the future course of Syrian socio-economic journey. Meeting the expectations and aspirations of the masses in a revolutionary fervor is a big challenge for any regime in the aftermath. The Syrian imbroglio has its own dynamic and impact for several regional and extra regional actors. Taking stock of the balance sheet might be instructive. – Syria is the Game Changer for Big Powers | Vivekananda International Foundation
USA – China
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) On December 3, 2024, China imposed its most stringent set of critical mineral restrictions after the United States not only slapped export controls on 24 types of chipmaking equipment and three categories of software essential for semiconductor development, but also added 140 Chinese companies to the export control list. While these measures and countermeasures have been going on for a while, this is arguably the first time Beijing has reacted so strongly, targeting the US specifically and signalling to the incoming Donald Trump administration that it has a major source of leverage – critical minerals. Compared to restrictions in 2023 on critical minerals like gallium and germanium, last month’s controls are more targeted. The objective is to stop the export of dual-use materials critical for defence and technological development. – Why export controls are the weapon of choice in US-China tech war
