From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Global Politics, Australia, BRICS, Russia-North Korea, Syria, USA, USA-China, USA-Iran, Vanuatu
Global Politics
(Ngaire Woods – ASPI The Strategist) In a year in which political incumbents around the world were either voted out of office or forcibly removed from power, one statement, repeated in various forms by Mohammad Al Gergawi, the United Arab Emirates’ minister of cabinet affairs, stands out: ‘The role of government is to design a future which gives citizens hope.’ Looking ahead to 2025, political leaders should take this message to heart and shift their focus from constant crisis management to crafting a bold, hopeful agenda. – In 2024, a global anti-incumbent election wave | The Strategist
Australia
(Jennifer Parker – ASPI The Strategist) The past year brought a renewed focus on Australia’s deteriorating security situation and maritime capability. Despite the maritime emphasis in Australia’s 2024 defence announcements, the country remains far from being adequately positioned to defend its extensive sea lines of communication, subsea cables and broader national interests at sea. With a federal election due by May, the next Australian government must spend on the navy, address the capability gaps and make timely decisions on future capability. – The next Australian government needs a bolder plan for the navy | The Strategist
BRICS
(Joseph S Nye Jr – ASPI The Strategist) One question that 2025 may begin to answer is whether the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is becoming the new center of power in world politics. Now that it has added new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates) and come to represent 45 percent of the world population, some believe that it is consolidating the (misleadingly named) Global South and posing a serious challenge to US and Western power. But I remain skeptical of such claims. – BRICS is hardly a new fulcrum of world politics | The Strategist
Russia – North Korea
(Olena Guseinova – Lowy The Interpreter) The Moscow-Pyongyang partnership has crossed into uncharted territory. The major shift in the dynamics of North Korea-Russia relations was epitomised by Kim Jong-un’s decision to bolster Vladimir Putin’s army with an additional contingent of 11,000 troops to fight in Russia’s Kursk region. Never before had the regime deployed such a large force abroad, let alone troops specifically tasked with engaging in direct ground combat. – The message North Korea sends by rotating its troops in Russia | Lowy Institute
Syria
(Philip Eliason, David Livingstone – The Interpreter) Hope conceals the reality of the future of Syria. Most international experts were wrong about the Arab Spring, projecting their aspirations into uprisings that couldn’t be democratising. It is happening again. Western press coverage from mid-December’s fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to the New York Times on 5 January focus on Syria’s post-Assad mix of euphoria and opportunism. – Syrian boss Ahmed al-Sharaa: A leopard in a fix | Lowy Institute
USA
(Riki Fujii-Rajani, Sanjay Patnaik – Brookings) The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) promised billions in investments towards clean energy and climate-related projects. While the implementation and delivery of the IRA is ongoing, it has also faced persistent efforts to roll it back from many Republican lawmakers since its enactment. With the impending shift to a Republican-controlled White House and Congress, the fate of the IRA and its estimated $1.045 trillion worth of climate and energy provisions is uncertain. In this explainer, we examine the possible trajectories of the IRA under a Republican White House, Senate, and House. – What will happen to the Inflation Reduction Act under a Republican trifecta?
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) The U.S. immigration system is complex, consisting of various laws, policies, and programs. Here’s what to know about immigration under a second Trump administration. – Here Are the U.S. Immigration Terms to Know | Council on Foreign Relations
USA – China
(Jonathan Czin – Brookings) The coming four years will be crucial for shoring up America’s ability to compete with China across domains. It would be easy for members of the new Trump administration to view the long-term steps required to sustain the multifaceted competition with China as less urgent than addressing the economic problems afflicting the relationship or the conflagrations in Europe and the Middle East. However, Beijing is unlikely to meaningfully address Washington’s long-standing grievances about China’s nonmarket economic practices even in the face of punishing tariffs—or help the new administration address these geopolitical hotspots. The new administration risks losing ground to China in other crucial domains if it focuses just on trade issues at the expense of other aspects of the competition. Beijing very much remains intent on competition with the United States, and this competition is one that the United States could very well lose if it does not have a comprehensive, sustainable approach to dealing with China over the long term. – Abetting competition, restraining Beijing: Recommendations for diplomacy toward China
USA – Iran
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) One of the many complex foreign policy problems that Donald Trump will inherit when he takes office in just over two weeks is Iran. It is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, its robust ballistic missile program continues to progress, and it sees the United States as the main obstacle to its domination of the Middle East. How will Trump respond? – Transition 2025: What Will Donald Trump Do About Iran? | Council on Foreign Relations
Vanuatu
(Cynthia Mehboob – Lowy The Interpreter) Last month’s magnitude 7.3 earthquake near Vanuatu caused widespread devastation and left at least a dozen people dead. The disaster also exposed a critical vulnerability in Vanuatu’s digital infrastructure, specifically the over-reliance on a single undersea cable, ICN1. A fire at the cable landing station temporarily interrupted the power supply, disabling internet traffic. The connection was restored 10 days later, after what was described as “a multilateral effort under extreme conditions”. – Vanuatu’s digital vulnerability | Lowy Institute
