From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Africa; Australia; Australia-US; China-Russia; China-Taiwan; Russia-Iran; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine; US
Africa
(Landry Signé – Brookings) The cultural and creative industries (CCIs) represent a growing and high-potential area for economic growth and investment in Africa, while showcasing and supporting African culture, heritage, and creative excellence. A few countries are leading the way, but examples of the CCIs can be found all across the continent. By leveraging key players—such as government MDIs, domestic and international companies—and key drivers of the CCIs—such as digitalization and consumer market growth—this potential can be expanded exponentially. – The outsized potential of the cultural and creative industries in Africa
Australia
(Charles Edel – Center for Strategic & International Studies) After a roller coaster ride in the polls over the past several months, the Australian election on May 3 ended with a surprise blowout and a decisive outcome for the Australian Labor Party, or “Labor.” After predictions that, at best, Labor would be forced into a minority government, it instead emerged with a sizable majority for its second term. – Australia’s 2025 Election: Decisive Labor Majority Amid Liberal Collapse
Australia-US
(John T. Watts – Atlantic Council) “Running up the score.” This is a phrase I heard reverberate through the Australian media over the past month. Perhaps surprisingly, “running up the score” did not originate from any of the candidates in the run-up to Australia’s May 3 election, which saw Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labor Party score a comfortable victory. Instead, the phrase was a retort on April 8 by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who is tasked with overseeing the implementation of the new global tariff regime. Asked by US Senator Mark Warner why the Trump administration’s tariffs apply to US ally Australia, despite a free trade agreement and a trade deficit, Greer said that the United States “should be running up the score on Australia.” The phrase embodies everything that many Australians now perceive as the new reality of the alliance with the United States: that it is no longer about “mateship,” shared sacrifice, and mutual fondness. Instead, the United States now sees Australia as simply another lackey to squeeze. – How Trump’s tariffs could reshape Australia’s strategic outlook – Atlantic Council
China-Russia
(Patricia M. Kim – Brookings) As Russian tanks roll through Red Square for Victory Day on May 9, Chinese President Xi Jinping will stand alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin—a jarring image for a country that claims to be a force for global stability. The image of Xi in Moscow underscores the growing tension at the heart of China’s foreign policy: its strategic partnership with Russia increasingly collides with its broader ambitions to be seen as a responsible global leader, as a steadying alternative to what it depicts as American volatility and Western decline. Although the China-Russia relationship remains solid, Xi faces challenges. Over the past year, Moscow has expanded its diplomatic outreach, negotiating directly with Washington and signing a mutual defense pact with Pyongyang. Xi’s visit offers him an opportunity to reaffirm the strength of the Beijing-Moscow partnership—even as Putin’s diplomatic options grow. – Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit highlights China’s strategic vulnerabilities
China – Taiwan
(David Axe – The Strategist) If China ever makes good on decades of implicit threats to invade Taiwan, most of its ground force will have to land at ports. Relatively little of it can come over beaches, because they ‘lack purpose-built infrastructure for unloading large transports, and because they are inherently exposed positions,’ Ian Easton noted in a 2021 study for the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia. Even the advent of China’s new elevated beach landing barges—bespoke pieces of equipment that surprised many observers when they appeared in March—may not significantly improve China’s capacity to unload at Taiwan’s 14 suitable beaches. As ASPI’s Erik Davis wrote last year, almost all are ‘overlooked by terrain that would turn the unloading zones into kill zones.’ – China needs Taiwanese ports to take the island. Mines are the key to protecting them | The Strategist
Russia – Iran
(Mikael Pir-Budagyan – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia has offered to mediate U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, positioning itself as a helpful intermediary with clear interests in securing benefits from any potential agreement. Moscow’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear talks would enhance its influence in the nuclear weapons supply chain through proposals to store Iran’s highly enriched uranium in Russia. Russia seeks to be a strategic power broker, using its engagement in nuclear diplomacy to assert regional influence and offset its isolation from the West. – Russia Attempting to Shape Future of Iran’s Nuclear Program – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 11 in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Putin called on the Ukrainian side to observe the ceasefire, but noted that the Russian army would retaliate in case of violation. Ukrainian officials report Russia exploited prior ceasefires, including the recent “Easter truce,” to reposition forces, stage assaults, and intensify operations, notably in Zaporizhzhia and other regions under active combat. Russian forces are ramping up assaults in Sumy and Kharkiv, likely as a diversion, while intensifying operations in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk, despite depleted armored vehicle stocks and growing losses. Moscow seeks to use these attacks to strengthen Russia’s position in the international arena and for propaganda targeting domestic Russian, Ukrainian, and Western audiences. A new offensive against Ukraine would serve to bolster Russian domestic support for the war, solidify Moscow’s claims over occupied Ukrainian regions, undermine Ukraine’s allies, and prepare for potential future aggression in Europe. – Moscow Likely to Bolster Its Offensive Against Ukraine – Jamestown
US
(Gracelin Baskaran, Meredith Schwartz – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Zinc ranks as the fourth-most widely used metal worldwide. In addition to its primary application in steel galvanization, refining zinc also produces gallium and germanium—key inputs for advanced semiconductors and defense technologies. However, amid falling ore grades and limited exploration, the United States remains heavily dependent on zinc imports. Once a global hub for zinc processing, the United States now lacks sufficient refining capacity, importing over 70 percent of its refined zinc. There is an opportunity to rebuild domestic, vertically integrated zinc supply chains and reduce reliance on China, but this will demand deliberate action. Bolstering U.S. resilience will require scaling up domestic mining and refining, strategically deploying tariffs, encouraging private investment, promoting price stability, and deepening partnerships with allied nations. – Rebuilding U.S. Zinc Capacity in an Era of Global Competition
(Timothy Lea – Brookings) For technological, political, and practical reasons, space has yet to be weaponized like the other domains of warfare. Now, however, the United States Space Force’s chief of space operations, General B. Chance Saltzman, has said that the Space Force will do whatever it takes to militarily dominate space. Russia and China are likewise building combat capabilities that could be used to attack U.S. satellites. Regardless of one’s beliefs on the wisdom and outcomes of fighting a war in space, it is clear that a new era, in which the United States organizes, trains, and equips for space combat, has arrived. – Is America ready for an era of space warfare?
