From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Armenia-US, China-Cook Islands, Lebanon, Russia, Turkiye, US, US-Ukraine
Armenia – US
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) The Charter of Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the United States, signed in January 2024 under the then-outgoing administration, aligns with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s strategy to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, despite Moscow’s concerns and diplomatic engagements following the signing. The charter opens pathways for Armenia to modernize its nuclear sector, particularly by securing U.S. technology to replace its Soviet-era reactor by 2036, and strengthening Armenia’s development of artificial intelligence (AI). U.S. cooperation in border security aims to counter illicit trade and re-exports, potentially reducing Russian influence while increased Armenian control over borders with Iran and Türkiye signals broader geopolitical realignment. – New Armenia-U.S. Partnership On Pause – Jamestown
China – Cook Islands
(Shijie Wang – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Cook Islands signed two agreements in February that extend Beijing’s engagement in the South Pacific to include deep-sea exploration and dual-use maritime infrastructure. Beijing seeks to overcome U.S.-imposed containment in the Pacific. The Cook Islands agreements include provisions for port infrastructure, potentially offering logistical support for the People’s Liberation Army Navy and expanding its presence in the third island chain. Since 2009, PRC state-led studies have identified critical minerals in the deep sea around the Cook Islands, especially cobalt, which is crucial for battery technologies. The island nation now is expected to facilitate Chinese mining operations, securing a supply chain advantage for Beijing. – Island Hopping: the PRC’s Quest for Strategic Maritime Influence and Resource Security through the Cook Islands Partnership – Jamestown
Lebanon
(Hanin Ghaddar, Zohar Palti – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On February 26, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s new government won a crucial vote of confidence with backing from 95 out of 128 members in parliament. Even legislators affiliated with Hezbollah voted “yea,” despite the fact that the government’s inaugural ministerial statement does not support “the resistance” in any form. In Lebanon, ministerial statements outline the government’s plans during its term in office, and past statements had traditionally kowtowed to Hezbollah by emphasizing the slogan “the people, the army, and the resistance.” Yet Salam’s statement omitted that phrase and highlighted other priorities instead: financial reforms, judicial reforms, appointments based on merit and transparency, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from “occupied Lebanese territories in the south, up to the borders defined by the 1949 armistice.” The statement also emphasized the need for Lebanese “state sovereignty across all its territories exclusively with its own forces.” This included a pledge to implement President Joseph Aoun’s previous commitment to assert “the state’s duty in monopolizing the bearing of weapons” and “deciding on war and peace.” – Trump Should Aim for a “Riviera” in Lebanon | The Washington Institute
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian propagandists are capitalizing on the aftermath of the talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28, highlighting the diplomatic discord. The Kremlin cautiously monitored U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, concerned about economic implications and potential Western unity. While Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to exploit divisions, Moscow may be misjudging Europe’s increasing commitment to strengthening its defense and supporting Ukraine. European leaders have since convened emergency summits, reinforcing their commitment to Ukraine’s defense as an attempt of shifting the balance away from Putin’s long-standing goal of isolating Ukraine and weakening transatlantic ties. – Triumphalism in Moscow About Setback in Peace-Making for Ukraine Could be Short-Lived – Jamestown
Turkiye
(Gönül Tol – Middle East Institute) The growing uncertainty of an increasingly multipolar world has made it clear to many states that strategic autonomy is not a luxury but a necessity if they want to secure their future on their own terms. What is less clear is how to attain it. For many years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan thought that making Turkey self-reliant meant going it alone. While pursuing what Turkish officials called “an assertive national foreign policy,” Ankara strained ties with Western allies and Middle Eastern partners, leaving Turkey too weak to realize its goals. Erdoğan now understands that the path to strategic autonomy requires building bridges with allies and foes alike, not burning them. One area where this newfound instinct for coalition-building will come in handy is the energy sector. Turkey is one of the world’s leading energy consumers, but it is poor in natural resources. It depends on Russia and neighbors like Iraq and Iran to meet its energy needs, and this dependency creates vulnerabilities. To overcome them and strengthen Ankara’s hand, Erdoğan has sought to position Turkey as an energy hub, connecting natural gas producers to its east and south with markets to the west. Turkey’s geographical position and infrastructure give it an advantage in this regard, but occupying a beneficial location does not relieve Ankara from having to dust off its long-abandoned foreign policy approach: “zero problems with neighbors” and the West. Amid changing regional dynamics, Ankara sees an opportunity to achieve that and revive its plans to become an energy hub. – Amid regional upheaval, Turkey looks to energy to secure strategic autonomy | Middle East Institute
US
(Doug Livermore – Atlantic Council) In an early move echoing post-9/11 counterterrorism strategies, the Trump administration has designated eight major drug cartels, including Tren de Aragua and La Mara Salvatrucha, also known as MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations. This sets the administration up to potentially seek wide-ranging congressional authorization for military force against these criminal organizations, similar to that which was introduced in the House in 2023 by then Congressman Mike Waltz, before he became US President Donald Trump’s national security advisor. Passing legislation to authorize the use of military force against these drug cartels would be an appropriate and wise response to the threat they pose to Americans. In 2019, the United States experienced more opioid deaths than the rest of the world combined, and these cartels are funneling many of these drugs into the country. – To tackle China-enabled drug cartels in Mexico, Trump will need military authorization – Atlantic Council
(David L. Goldwyn and Joseph Webster – Atlantic Council) Import taxes on Mexico risk planting the seeds for another serious power crisis in Texas. US tariffs, slated to take force on March 4, could limit access to essential electrical components, making it more difficult for Texas to construct the resilient power grid it needs. Take transformers, which are used to step up generation voltage for long-distance transmission, or step down voltage for distribution. There is a nationwide—and global—shortage of transformers, as lead times have surged from fifty weeks in 2021 to 120 weeks in early 2024. But US production of transformers meets only 20 percent of domestic demand. – Tariffs on Mexico could threaten Texas’s electricity reliability – Atlantic Council
US – Ukraine
(Mathew Burrows, Julian Mueller-Kaler – Stimson Center) President Trump’s closing quip on February 28 that his joint press conference with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy “made for great television” was no exaggeration. Never has the Oval Office hosted such a blunt and public exchange of hostilities – particularly between nations that consider themselves allies. In the days leading up to the encounter, many in Kyiv had hoped Washington would reaffirm its military and financial commitments. But it didn’t take long for reality to set in that this meeting was anything but a show of solidarity. Instead, Zelenskyy found himself caught in a spectacle that laid bare deep fractures within the alliance – and the potential end of Western unity. – Which Future for Ukraine? • Stimson Center
