From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Bulgaria; Climate Action; Democracy; Europe; Hungary; Iberian Peninsula; Indo Pacific; Iran; Iraq; Israel; Qatar-Southeast Asia; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); Somalia; South Sudan; Syria-Russia-Türkiye; Türkiye; US; US-China; US-South Africa; US Tariffs; US-Ukraine; World Military Expenditure
Bulgaria
(Dimitar Keranov – German Marshall Fund of the United States) In Bulgaria’s increasingly fragile democracy, Delyan Peevski—a politician sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom for alleged corruption—has become one of the most influential figures in government without holding any formal executive role. His rise to power, despite widespread condemnation, reflects deeper structural vulnerabilities in Bulgaria’s political and judicial institutions, and raises pressing questions for the European Union. – Democracy Captured: Bulgaria’s Peevski Predicament | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Climate Action
(Chelsea Gómez, Cynthia Elliott, Mikayla Pellerin, Neelam Singh, Ginette Walls – World Resources Institute) Building a sustainable future will require major changes to how we power and operate our economies, with inevitable ripple effects on people’s livelihoods. Consider how coal communities could be reshaped when a plant closes, or how auto workers will navigate the shift to electric vehicle manufacturing. At the same time, transitioning from carbon-intensive industries to more sustainable ones can bring remarkable benefits. Alongside protecting people from increasingly dangerous climate extremes, the transition can create millions of new jobs and boost global GDP, offering new opportunities for growth and development in regions affected by the transition. – What Is a ‘Just Transition,’ and Are Countries Doing It? | World Resources Institute
Democracy
(Thomas Carothers, McKenzie Carrier – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy. – Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Europe
(Soufan Center) Over half the countries in the European Union plan to trigger an emergency clause to allow an increase in defense spending and investment without breaching the EU’s spending limits. These recent developments are part of a broader move by European countries to boost defense spending and capabilities, as well as seek out new partnerships in the face of apparent U.S. retrenchment. Support for the rapid re-armament of Europe comes with challenges, including the need to seek new defense partnerships with complicated allies such as Türkiye and fiscal tradeoffs for the welfare state. As the inevitable tradeoffs between defense spending potentially cuts into social welfare programs, the European political landscape may be impacted, with Euroskeptic populists on the rise capitalizing on the fallout. – Europe Seeks to Rapidly Increase Defense Investment Amidst Strategic Realignment – The Soufan Center
Hungary
(Zsuzsanna Végh – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Fifteen years into Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s rule—which has turned Hungary into an electoral autocracy—the country’s civic space is experiencing a renewed tightening. With the 2026 parliamentary election looming, the governing Fidesz party faces its first credible challenger since 2010: Recent polls give the newcomer party Respect and Freedom (Tisza) a narrow lead. Meanwhile, inflation remains high and the economic recovery is fragile. To shore up its base, the government now recasts itself as Hungary’s sole protector against foreign and domestic “enemies”. At the same time, it deploys dehumanizing rhetoric and restrictive laws against civil society and the media to silence dissent. Losing control of the narrative could cost Orbán the two-thirds constitutional majority that has long insulated him from accountability; intimidation has therefore become his strategy. – Authoritarian Innovation Inside the EU | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Iberian Peninsula
(Spencer Feingold, Filipe Beato – World Economic Forum) A widespread blackout across the Iberian Peninsula initially raised fears of a cyberattack on electrical grids. Early investigations said a cyberattack was not to blame, but the incident highlighted growing vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure. Experts stress the need for robust cybersecurity practices and international cooperation to protect energy systems from evolving threats. – Iberian blackout: Cyberattack is not to blame – but the threat to power grids is real | World Economic Forum
Indo Pacific
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States is lagging far behind China when it comes to military supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, where Beijing has increased pressure on long-time U.S. allies and partners. – The Indo-Pacific: Where Scale Matters | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran
(Anonymous – Stimson Center) Despite continued government repression and in the face of threats of war, Iranian society is experiencing significant momentum towards a more accountable and representative system of governance, marked by a rising level of public activism and demands on the ruling establishment for reform and transparency. Current nuclear negotiations with the United States are, in part, the result of civil society pressures that have forced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to cross long-stated red lines on engagement with an administration led by Donald Trump, the president who ordered the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his first term. – Iran’s Civil Society Amid the Shadow of External Threats • Stimson Center
Iraq
(Emirates Policy Center) Recently, Shia political and armed groups have issued both explicit and implicit calls for the partition of Iraq, aiming to secure control over the Shia region’s oil revenues, which are expected to decline in the near future amid a deepening regional security crisis. Tehran appears increasingly willing to accept Iraq’s partition, shifting away from its previous strategic priority of maintaining Iraqi unity under Shia militia dominance. This change suggests that partition could be part of a broader geopolitical deal, allowing Iran to secure control over Shia-majority areas of Iraq. This shift could plausibly explain the recent surge in partitionist rhetoric among Iran’s local allies. To mitigate risks, Arab states – through active engagement with US-led Western powers – should issue strong statements reaffirming Iraq’s unity and internal stability while firmly rejecting any partitionist calls or initiatives. – Emirates Policy Center | Shia Calls to Divide Iraq: Why Now?
Israel
(Emirates Policy Center) Israel is currently experiencing what looks like an unprecedented tsunami of protest within its security and military establishments. The number and diversity of petitions – signed by both military personnel and civilians – demanding the release of Israeli detainees in exchange for a halt to the war in the Gaza Strip have significantly increased. The protest petitions challenge the legitimacy of the ongoing military campaign in Gaza, arguing that it serves personal and political interests – particularly the preservation of the current right-wing government and Benjamin Netanyahu’s continued rule. The petitions cast a shadow over military operation in the Gaza Strip, exacerbating the reservist crisis. As a result, the military campaign has become increasingly cautious, slow and gradual, due to the army’s inability to occupy the Strip as quickly as the Israeli chief of staff had anticipated when he laid out his initial war plans. – Emirates Policy Center | Military and Political Repercussions of Reservist Petitions in Israel
Qatar – Southeast Asia
(Economist Intelligence Unit) On March 4th a Qatari private equity fund, JTA Investment, agreed with a Vietnamese conglomerate, VinGroup, to invest US$1bn in VinGroup’s electric vehicle (EV) subsidiary, VinFast. The move marks Qatar’s entry into the highly competitive EV sector. Although other Gulf investors, notably Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (a sovereign wealth vehicle), have acquired stakes in EV companies in exchange for local production capacity, we do not expect this deal to result in a transfer of production to Qatar, owing to the deal being made by a private capital firm, and also because Qatar is not seeking to establish domestic EV manufacturing. – Qatari private capital expands in South-East Asia – Economist Intelligence Unit
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Anna J. Davis – The Jamestown Foundation) As Ukraine marks 39 years since the Chornobyl disaster, Russian forces continue to pose new nuclear threats as Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine continues. Russia continues to occupy Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency warn that frequent drone attacks and gunfire near the site heighten the risk of a nuclear accident. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is an area where both Kyiv and Moscow hold leverage over each other in any potential peace negotiations. – Ukraine Faces New Nuclear Threats Thirty-Nine Years After Chornobyl – Jamestown
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Two framework plans on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have been submitted by the United States and collectively by France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The quadripartite plan marks the first entry of Western European governments into these negotiations. While both plans address various aspects of war termination, the territorial aspects loom larger at this stage. The two plans differ markedly from one another in terms of the status of Crimea, among other territorial and non-territorial issues. Russia’s objectives in Ukraine transcend the territories currently at stake. If and when it pockets these territorial concessions, Russia will proceed to the political and security-related stages in its efforts to subjugate the remainder of Ukraine. – Comparing and Contrasting Western Peace Frameworks for Russia-Ukraine War – Jamestown
Somalia
(Emirates Policy Center) Developments in the operational landscape in central and southern Somalia, the growing threat posed by al-Shabaab Movement and its ongoing efforts to encircle the capital, Mogadishu, underscore the complexities of the war on terror and the significant challenges facing the Somali government and security forces. Al-Shabaab Movement’s resurgence in previously liberated Somali areas and its ability to present itself as an alternative governing authority stem from the difficulties facing the federal government and army in maintaining their gains and strengthening the state’s presence in these areas as well as urban centers across the country. In the foreseeable future, the likelihood of a continued back-and-forth war between the Somali government and terrorists remains high. This scenario not only diminishes prospects for Somalia’s recovery and the defeat of extremists but also raises concerns about the specter of Somalia’s “Afghanization” should the balance of power shift in favor of terrorist groups. – Emirates Policy Center | Assessment of Somalia’s Security Landscape and Prospects of Counterterrorism Efforts
South Sudan
(Dan Watson – IISS) In recent months, concerns about the viability of South Sudan’s transitional government have soared, following the dismissal of numerous powerful military and security elites and the arrest in March of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army–In Opposition’s (SPLM/A–IO) leader, Riek Machar. These events were precipitated by brewing tensions within the ruling regime of President Salva Kiir – including the removal of its powerful spy chief last October, which sparked clashes in the capital, Juba – as well as intensifying conflict between the government and its partner in peace, the SPLM/A–IO, especially in Upper Nile state (see Map 1). Provisions of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) are being unpicked, while the SPLM/A–IO is fragmenting. Although South Sudan is no stranger to crisis, the severity of the current situation raises doubts about the longevity of a regime previously thought capable of withstanding intensive instability. Fears that the war in neighbouring Sudan is seeping into South Sudan via Upper Nile are also mounting. – Tipping points: South Sudan on the brink of collapse?
Syria-Russia-Türkiye
(Emil Avdaliani – Stimson Center) The fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria has drastically diminished Moscow’s influence in the country and, by extension, the wider Middle East, while Turkey has emerged as the biggest beneficiary. Turkey plans to establish military bases across Syria, integrate economically through reconstruction, and turn the country into a forward defense zone or buffer state. These shifts come at the expense of Russian power projection in Syria and deepen Moscow’s suspicions that Ankara no longer relies on Russia as it once did. Turkey can now talk directly to a friendly government in Damascus, and Russian military formations no longer constitute a constraint for the Turks if they move against Kurdish forces in Syria’s northeast. – Russo-Turkish Cooperation After Assad • Stimson Center
Türkiye
(Galip Dalay – Chatham House) On 19 March, Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was taken into custody on charges of corruption and misuse of public office. Two days later, he was arrested. These dates are significant because on 23 March, Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was scheduled to choose its presidential candidate in a primary for upcoming elections in 2028. Imamoglu was the sole candidate. This context has led a wide spectrum of the public to view the arrest as motivated more by the desire to remove a formidable presidential rival than address corruption. – The future of the Turkish opposition after Imamoglu’s arrest | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) In January 2025, the United States of America saw the re-emergence of measles, a paramyxovirus. This resurgence was seen after 25 years, with the previous strain eliminated in 2000. The resurgence should have prompted a national discussion on immunisation and healthcare infrastructure in the US. Instead, it has become a platform for a disturbing surge of misinformation, with conspiracy theories now suggesting that this occurrence of measles is being deployed as a biological weapon. While these claims do not have any scientific basis, they reveal a dangerous trend of politicising information and, subsequently, a deliberate erosion of public trust in science and institutions. Anti-vaccine rhetoric has shifted from a niche movement to a political identity for many emboldened by misinformation ecosystems and social media echo chambers. In this environment, measles, one of the most contagious yet vaccine-preventable diseases, has become a pawn. – The Dangers of Politicising Medical Misinformation: The US Measles Outbreak
(Katie Lebling, Kevin Kennedy, Angela Anderson, Danielle Riedl, Hannah Harasaki – World Resources Institute) The United States has emerged as a leader in developing innovative ways to remove and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere — using approaches that rely on chemicals, rocks, the ocean and biomass. Known as carbon dioxide removal (CDR), these efforts help remove the excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that are already contributing to rising temperatures and extreme weather events. – How to Create Long-Term Demand for Carbon Removal in the US | World Resources Institute
(Audrey Denvir, Haley Leslie-Bole – World Resources Institute) Biomass is fast becoming a topic of interest for governments looking for alternative energy sources and solutions for the climate crisis. New WRI research shows that limited biomass use can help achieve net-zero emissions goals in the United States. However, guidelines will be needed to ensure its use doesn’t displace agricultural land used for food production or inadvertently contribute to higher carbon emissions that results from land-use change. – Biomass for Carbon Removal, Explained | World Resources Institute
US – China
(Rupert Schulenburg – IISS) In response to China’s advances in its maritime capabilities, the United States is working to bolster the anti-ship capabilities of its air fleet. A key focus of this effort is the integration of the Lockheed Martin AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) across a wider variety of platforms. Designed to engage high-value maritime surface targets at stand-off range, the sub-sonic cruise missile features a 370+ kilometre range and is fitted with a 450-kilogram warhead. The LRASM also includes a data link for in-flight target updates and a low-observable profile to help it penetrate advanced integrated air-defence systems. With the US Navy’s cancellation of the Hypersonic Air-Launched Offensive (HALO) missile this April, the LRASM will continue to serve as the United States’ most advanced air-launched anti-ship missile for the foreseeable future. – Countering China’s navy: the US air fleet’s growing anti-ship role
US – South Africa
(Zainab Usman, Anthony Carroll – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The diplomatic relationship between the United States and South Africa has entered one of its most turbulent phases since the end of apartheid. Once characterized by cooperation across sectors such as trade, health, defense, and diplomacy, the partnership is now fraying under the weight of geopolitical tensions, ideological differences, and a string of controversial policy decisions on both sides. The deterioration began during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term and has intensified since 2022, largely due to fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, South Africa’s 2023 case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and South Africa’s close relationship with China. – U.S.–South Africa Relations Are on the Brink of Collapse | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
US Tariffs
(Council of Councils) The tariffs and trade disruptions of the second Donald Trump administration have caused trade partners around the world to reconsider their economic policies and supply chains. Four Council of Councils member institutes weigh in on how these changes are impacting their regions – Trump’s Economic Disruption: The World Adapts | Council of Councils
US – Ukraine
(Chatham House) Orysia Lutsevych and Matthew Savill discuss the Ukraine–US mineral deal and the challenges facing Ukraine in the peace negotiations with Russia. – Independent Thinking: Ukraine’s impossible choice | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
World Military Expenditure
(SIPRI) World military expenditure reached $2718 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.4 per cent in real terms from 2023 and the steepest year-on-year rise since at least the end of the cold war. Military spending increased in all world regions, with particularly rapid growth in both Europe and the Middle East. The top five military spenders—the United States, China, Russia, Germany and India—accounted for 60 per cent of the global total, with combined spending of $1635 billion. – Unprecedented rise in global military expenditure as European and Middle East spending surges | SIPRI
