From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China – Global – Middle East – Russia/Syria/Libya – USA
China
(Bill Sweetman – ASPI The Strategist) The speed, agility, range and stealth of an individual aircraft type are still important, but they’re no longer the whole story of air combat. Advances in sensing, processing and communications are changing military operations. The Chengdu J-36, the big Chinese combat aircraft that first appeared on 26 December, has been developed to exploit these changes and support China’s strategic goal: to establish regional dominance, including the ability to annex Taiwan by force. – China’s big new combat aircraft: an airborne cruiser against air and surface targets | The Strategist
Global
(Crisis Group) Trump’s return adds unpredictability to an already volatile world. As global tensions rise, change looms, whether through deals or by force of arms. – 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025 | Crisis Group
Middle East
(Raphael S. Cohen – RAND Corporation) In early December 2023, I interviewed a retired senior Israeli intelligence official about Hamas’s October 7 attack and the swiftly changing dynamics in the Middle East. October 7, he explained, “was an earthquake, and the entire region will be dealing with the aftershocks for quite some time.” – The Middle East’s Next Aftershocks | RAND
(The Soufan Center) Neither global nor regional powers have succeeded in deterring the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement in Yemen from attacks intended to compel a halt to the conflict in Gaza. Escalation by Western and other regional powers carries significant risks of worsening the already catastrophic humanitarian situation in Yemen and provoking the Houthis to restart attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states. Israel’s ability to unilaterally degrade and deter the Houthis is limited by its distance from Yemen and intelligence gaps, causing some Israeli leaders to advocate attacks on the Houthis’ main backers in Tehran. Many global diplomats oppose shifting strategy to pressuring Houthi ground forces as likely to expand the war and inflict further harm on the Yemeni people. – Pathways To Deter Yemen’s Houthis Remain Elusive – The Soufan Center
Russia – Syria – Libya
(Emadeddin Badi – Atlantic Council) The fall of Damascus last month marks a shift of historic proportions. Once a centerpiece of Russia’s reassertion on the global stage, Syria now starkly illustrates the fragility of alliances built on coercion and convenience. Bashar al-Assad, propped up for years by Russian airpower, mercenaries, and propaganda, could not withstand the combined weight of internal dissent and external recalibration. For Moscow, this collapse is not merely a setback but an opportunity to adapt—an effort already underway as its forces and equipment pivot southward in the Mediterranean. Russia’s relocation of troops and hardware to eastern Libya signals a strategic recalibration, with Libyan National Army (LNA) Commander Khalifa Haftar waiting in Cyrenaica, hedging his bets. All eyes are on him as Western states court his family members to deter them from enabling a Russian naval pivot in the Mediterranean. – Russia is making a fragile pivot from Syria to Libya. The West should beware falling into a new trap. – Atlantic Council
USA
(The Soufan Cneter) At least 15 people were killed and around 35 injured in a vehicle-ramming attack on New Year’s Day in the French Quarter of New Orleans. While a furled flag associated with the Islamic State (IS) was found in the vehicle, the attacker’s connection to IS has not been officially established. IS has long used vehicle attacks as part of its modus operandi, having inspired extremists to conduct similar attacks in Nice, Berlin, Stockholm, and New York City over the years. In 2024, there was an uptick in IS-inspired plots targeting the United States with numerous attacks thwarted in the last four months. – Devastating New Year’s Day Attack in New Orleans Linked to the Islamic State – The Soufan Center
(Atlantic Council) It was a somber start to 2025. In the early hours of New Year’s Day, a man drove a pickup truck through throngs of pedestrians on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, leaving fourteen dead and injuring at least thirty others. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said Thursday that the driver, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, acted alone and was inspired by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). What does the attack reveal about ISIS and the state of global terrorism as 2025 begins? What policy implications are there for the incoming Trump administration? – Experts react: What the New Orleans attack tells us about terrorism in 2025 – Atlantic Council
