From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Canada; China-Iran; Female Genital Mutilation; Global Trade; India-Pakistan; International Humanitarian Law; Israel; Maldives-India; Middle East; Myanmar; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); Sustainable Development Goals; Syria; Taiwan; Turkey-Iraq; UK; US-China; US-Houthis; Victims of Terrorism Associations Network
Canada
(Ed Arnold, Brigadier (Ret’d) Robbie Boyd OBE – RUSI) On 28 March 2025, Mark Carney – a strong candidate to become the next Canadian Prime Minister today – declared that Canada’s old relationship with the US, ‘based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over’. Just three months into his second term, President Trump has made unprecedented and repeated demands that Canada becomes America’s 51st state, even refusing to rule out the use of force to achieve this. Similar threats to acquire Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark have shattered NATO harmony. His ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have directly challenged the North Atlantic Treaty’s Article 2 (Economic collaboration). For Canada, NATO’s protections are now less certain, and the country should look to Europe for alternative security and trade arrangements. Joining the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) would be a valuable start. – ‘Oceans 11’: The Case for Canada Joining the Joint Expeditionary Force | Royal United Services Institute
China – Iran
(Emirates Policy Center) China previously endorsed the 2015 nuclear agreement as the foundation for any new negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. However, Chinese policymakers now recognize that the agreement is no longer viable in its original form. China has welcomed the start of negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman. However, it opposes a purely bilateral deal, favoring a multilateral framework that accommodates its interests and those of its partners. Beijing is concerned that such an agreement could lead to Tehran’s strategic realignment with the West, potentially threatening China’s regional role. China’s approach to Iran’s nuclear issue appears to hinge on two main pillars: first, finding alternative solutions that preserve Iranian interests; and second, preventing the US from adopting unilateral measures that could undermine any future agreement. In this context, Beijing supports Iran’s right to maintain a peaceful nuclear program while rejecting attempts to dismantle it entirely, like in the Libyan model. Beijing is likely to cooperate with Moscow to block the snapback mechanism that would reinstate sanctions on Iran, leveraging Russia’s presidency of the Security Council in September and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting next June. China will also seek to capitalize on the European Troika’s willingness to engage in the Iran-US talks to prevent Washington from dominating the discourse on Iran’s nuclear issue. – Emirates Policy Center | Positioning at a Critical Juncture: China’s Policy Toward Iran-US Nuclear Talks
Female Genital Mutilation
(UN News) Female genital mutilation (FGM) is becoming less common worldwide, but when it does occur, it is increasingly performed by professional healthcare workers, the UN World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Monday. While the health sector worldwide plays a key role in stopping the abusive practice of FGM and supporting survivors, in several regions, evidence suggests otherwise. As of 2020, an estimated 52 million girls and women were subjected to FGM at the hands of health workers – that’s around one in four cases. – One in four female genital mutilation cases now carried out by health workers | UN News
Global Trade
(Andrew Elek – East Asia Forum) Global trade faces unprecedented uncertainty due to unpredictable US trade policies, including tariff impositions and withdrawal from multilateral agreements. To prevent further economic destabilisation, major economies must unite to reaffirm their commitment to existing trade rules. By standing firm against short-term disruptions, countries can preserve a rules-based trade system that has benefitted the global economy for decades. Collective action is essential to prevent the breakdown of international commerce and ensure stability and prosperity for all nations in the long run. – Reasserting trade discipline in a post-Trump order | East Asia Forum
India – Pakistan
(Crisis Group) An attack in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir is bringing India and Pakistan dangerously close to armed conflict. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi explains what is at stake and how leaders can defuse mounting tensions. – Deadly Kashmir Militant Attack Raises Temperature between India and Pakistan | Crisis Group
International Humanitarian Law
(UN News) Thousands of lives have been “destroyed in the pursuit of supremacy”, as international humanitarian law has been “dismissed” and “cast aside”, said UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Filippo Grandi, on Monday. Speaking in the UN Security Council, Filippo Grandi said in conflicts across the world in places like Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Haiti, “violence has become the currency of our age.”. Forcibly displaced people are among the first victims of war. Worldwide, some 123 million people have had to flee due to conflict. Since the beginning of the war in Sudan, one-third of Sudan’s population has been displaced by indiscriminate violence, disease, starvation, flooding, droughts and sexual violence, “a situation that frankly defies description,” said Mr. Grandi. In Ukraine, 10 million people have been displaced by the war, experiencing what he described as “terrible toll.” Seven million of them are now refugees, living outside the country. “Stagnation has defined the response in Myanmar,” said the UN refugee chief. As a result, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have been living in camps entirely dependent on humanitarian aid for the past eight years. – ‘Season of war,’ as norms of humanitarian law ‘cast aside’ UN refugee chief | UN News
Israel
(Emirates Policy Center) The Israeli economy is navigating a critical juncture. In addition to the crisis in the high-tech sector, the 2025 public budget does not indicate economic growth, with a strong likelihood of the fiscal deficit exceeding 5%. The budget’s political considerations appear to have outweighed economic ones. Its primary goal seems to be preserving the government coalition, even at the expense of development drivers and growth incentives. The imposition of new US tariffs exacerbates challenges facing the Israeli economy, particularly in agriculture and commercial commodity industries, and introduces fresh hurdles for the high-tech sector, which had anticipated a recovery in 2025 following three years of decline. Military spending is expected to exceed the budgeted amount, given the possibility of a confrontation with Iran if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail. This would exacerbate economic pressures, widen the fiscal deficit and further constrain economic growth prospects. – Emirates Policy Center | Israeli Economy After Endorsing Public Budget and Challenges of US Tariffs
Maldives – India
(Athaulla A Rasheed – Australian Institute of International Affairs) India’s role in the Maldives’ security is indispensable. By aligning its external partnerships with India’s regional strategy, the Maldives can ensure mutual security without compromising its sovereignty. – The Maldives’ Development-Focused Foreign Engagements and India’s Security Interests – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Middle East
(UN News) Surviving on one meal a day and stretching out rapidly dwindling food rations have become a desperate reality in the Gaza Strip, where humanitarian aid has been blocked for nearly two months. Both the UN agency that assists Palestine refugees, UNRWA, and the World Food Programme (WFP) report that food stocks are now exhausted, even as supplies of lifesaving assistance pile up at border crossings waiting to be brought in. Humanitarians continue to warn that hunger is spreading and deepening in the enclave, amid the blockage, access constraints, ongoing Israeli military operations and a rise in looting. – Gazans face hunger crisis as aid blockade nears two months | UN News
(UN News) The International Court of Justice (ICJ) began hearings on Monday into Israel’s continuing severe restrictions on the work of the UN and other international organizations in Gaza and the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT). The ICJ, which sits in The Hague and is the UN’s top court, is expected to hear from 40 States and four international organizations in proceedings slated to last all week. Representing Secretary-General António Guterres, UN Legal Counsel Elinor Hammarskjöld reiterated his many calls for a ceasefire, for humanitarian aid to reach all people in need and for all hostages to be freed. A total of 13 UN entities are present in Gaza, Ms. Hammarskjöld noted, adding that 295 UN personnel have died in Gaza since the war began on 7 October 2023, following the Hamas-led terror attacks in southern Israel. – Israel’s restrictions on UN agencies in Gaza highlighted at world court | UN News
Myanmar
(Crisis Group) Independent media outlets exiled from Myanmar play a vital role in reporting on the civil war to destruction wrought by natural disasters, while influencing the political culture of the resistance. But, as Crisis Group expert Margarite Clarey explains, mounting challenges jeopardise these organisations’ work. – From Yangon to the Borderlands: Independent Media on Myanmar’s Post-coup Front Line | Crisis Group
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) A shift in tone and public sentiment in Russia suggests Moscow may be preparing for negotiations rather than continuing outright obstruction, but Russia continues aggressive military actions, undercutting its own signals of interest in a ceasefire or de-escalation. The issue of Crimea and territorial integrity remains a core obstacle, with Russia pushing for recognition of gains while Ukraine refuses to compromise its sovereignty. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, maintaining dialogue with Washington serves more to reinforce Russia’s global status than to seriously pursue a viable peace deal with Ukraine. – Russia May be Switching Tactics From Sabotage of Peace Deal to Bargaining – Jamestown
(Benjamin Jensen – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Regardless of the territorial settlement and alliance restrictions placed on Ukraine by ongoing negotiations, what should the post-war Ukrainian military look like to defend the nation’s sovereignty and deter future Russian attacks? Even if Ukraine has guarantees from Russia and foreign troops deploy to monitor any ceasefire, Kyiv cannot rule out future attacks and must maintain a larger military than before the 2022 invasion. This force must balance the security needs of the state with the tremendous costs of economic reconstruction and repatriating refugees. Yet, the formations that guard Ukraine’s steppe frontier will look different than the composition of most European militaries due to three defining trends: (1) the rise of drone warfare; (2) demographic decline across Europe; and (3) the new missile age. To ensure that any ceasefire becomes a lasting peace, Ukraine will have to continue substituting drones for people and invest in a mix of layered air defense and long-range conventional precision strike. This force will need a deep strategic reserve that changes how free societies think about their reserve component and national service. – Fewer Soldiers, More Drones: What Ukraine’s Military Will Look Like After the War
(UN Security Council) On 29 April, the Security Council will hold an open briefing on Ukraine. Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK requested the meeting to receive an update on political and humanitarian developments. French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot will chair the meeting. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya are the anticipated briefers. Ukraine and several regional states are expected to participate in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. – Ukraine: Briefing : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Sustainable Development Goals
(UN News) Facing a staggering $4 trillion annual financing gap for development and mounting trade wars, top UN officials on Monday called for urgent action to rescue the Sustainable Development Goals and revive international cooperation. Speaking at UN Headquarters in New York, Secretary-General António Guterres, General Assembly President Philémon Yang and Economic and Social Council President Bob Rae stressed the need for more resources and a global financial overhaul. Without an effective response, they stressed, the world risks falling even further behind on ending poverty, fighting climate change, and building new sustainable economies. They were addressing the ECOSOC annual forum on financing for development, which follows last week’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings where global growth, trade tensions and the rising debt burden in developing countries were front and centre. – UN warns of $4 trillion shortfall threatening global development goals | UN News
Syria
(Crisis Group) Syria’s interim president has formed a new cabinet to replace the caretaker government, following promulgation of a transitional constitution. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon and Nanar Hawach assess what these steps mean for the country’s future. – What Lies in Store for Syria as a New Government Takes Power? | Crisis Group
Taiwan
(Kitsch (Yen-fan) Liao – The Jamestown Foundation) Taiwan’s 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant improvement over its predecessor in content and clarity but suffers from being a document without consensus: Published by the Ministry of National Defense, the QDR does not reflect the views of other government agencies, limiting its ability to tackle the challenges it lays out. The new concept of operations (CONOP) detailed in the QDR has three new focuses: gradually “attriting” enemy forces as they encounter each defensive layer; a renewed focus on post-“beachhead operations,” referring to continued resistance after the PLA has gained further ground; and increasing the effectiveness of multi-domain operations buttressed by increased readiness. Amid some progress, issues remain for equipment acquisition, logistics requirements, and force retention and morale. – Taiwan Focuses on Societal Resilience and U.S. Cooperation in New Defense Review – Jamestown
Turkey – Iraq
(Meliha Altunışık, Derya Göçer – Stimson Center) As the Middle East continues to face instability from heightened military conflicts and shifting regional dynamics, Turkey’s approach towards Iraq has evolved in significant ways. Since 2020, Turkey has actively sought normalization with the central government in Baghdad to augment its longstanding engagement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). – Balancing Security and Diplomacy: Turkey’s Dual-Track Policy Towards Iraq • Stimson Center
UK
(RUSI) RUSI’s Cyber and Tech research group, in partnership with Darktrace, convened a policy roundtable in London on 6 February 2025 to discuss the ongoing development of the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill (CSRB). Participants included representatives from technology vendors, cyber security services vendors, academia and critical national infrastructure providers. The expert discussion provided a platform for participants to reflect on the UK government’s Cyber Strategy, existing cyber security legislation, and how to design the CSRB so that it keeps pace with an evolving threat landscape. This conference report summarises points made during the roundtable discussion, none of which are attributable. It begins by setting out the background to the CSRB and its expected measures, and developments on the CSRB since the roundtable took place. Following this, it outlines key discussions from the roundtable, before finally presenting main takeaways and recommendations for the UK government: providing practical steps to ensure the CSRB is effective, proportionate and future-proof. – Scoping the UK Cyber Security and Resilience Bill | Royal United Services Institute
US – China
(Nistha Kumari Singh – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The United States would be best placed to adopt a Cyber Maze framework, advocating a flexible, layered strategy to counter China’s evolving cyber operations. This would involve focusing on adaptability over rigid deterrence, and emphasing proactive defence, resilience, and diplomacy to manage risks without escalating conflict. – China’s Cyber Maze: Challenges and Prospects for the United States – Australian Institute of International Affairs
US – Houthis
(Soufan Center) The Trump administration’s air strike campaign against the Houthis is degrading the group’s missile and drone capability, but has failed to force the group to capitulate. By targeting Houthi officials, the U.S. strikes have begun to cause significant civilian casualties, prompting criticism from U.S. and global organizations. Yemeni forces want to try to advance on the ground against the Houthis, taking advantage of the U.S. strikes, but appear ill-prepared for a major ground offensive. Gulf Arab rulers are concerned that escalation against the Houthis might provoke Houthi retaliation and derail the steady improvement in Gulf-Iran relations. – Endgame For Costly U.S. Campaign Against Yemen’s Houthis Is Unclear – The Soufan Center
Victims of Terrorism Associations Network
(UN News) A new UN initiative aims to drive collective action to support the rights and needs of people everywhere whose lives have been upended by the continuing threat posed terrorism. The UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) launched the Victims of Terrorism Associations Network (VoTAN) on Monday. The network is a key outcome from the first UN Global Congress of Victims of Terrorism, held in September 2022. It brings together victims and survivors of terrorism, victims’ associations and civil society organizations from across the globe. The goal is to provide a safe space for victims and survivors to support each other, build resilience and engage as advocates, educators, and peacebuilders. – UN launches network to support victims and survivors of terrorism | UN News
