Geostrategic magazine (24 October 2024)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

Arms-Control (USA, Russia, China)

(IISS) Bilateral and multilateral arms control for limiting theatre- and strategic-range missile systems is in a quandary. Even though the US, Russia and China have each put forward proposals for arms-control and risk-reduction measures, conflicting interests and adversarial relations have so far served to stymie any progress. In this report, three experts – one American, one Russian and one Chinese – examine selected arms-control and risk-reduction proposals from their respective countries, and assess their potential contributions to strategic stability. – Evaluating Current Arms-control Proposals: Perspectives from the US, Russia and China

Azerbaijan – BRICS

(Orkhan Baghirov – The Jamestown Foundation) Baku announced in August its application to join the BRICS organization to align with major developing economies and strengthen political relationships on the global stage. Joining BRICS will create new opportunities for Azerbaijan in the transportation sector. In recent years, Azerbaijan has striven to become a hub for both regional and global transportation by connecting intercontinental trade routes from China to Europe. Azerbaijan aims to develop its non-oil sector to avoid its economy becoming over reliant on oil exports. BRICS membership would provide Azerbaijan with preferential access to global markets. – Azerbaijan’s BRICS Application Seeks to Strengthen its Economy – Jamestown

Azerbaijan – Pakistan

(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan and Pakistan signed a $1.6 billion arms deal in September to supply Azerbaijan with the joint Pakistani-Chinese JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter jets, strengthening the military partnership between Islamabad and Baku. In the last several years, Baku has been diversifying its international partnerships, especially following Russia’s war in Ukraine. Partnering with Pakistan will create an opening for Azerbaijan to reach South Asian markets. As Azerbaijan aligns with Pakistan, Armenia is deepening military ties with India, potentially setting the stage for a rivalry between India and Pakistan in the South Caucasus. – Pakistan Strengthens Azerbaijan’s Military Muscle – Jamestown

BRICS – Global South – West

(Irene Mia – IISS) BRICS’ resilience should be understood in the context of the shifting international order, with geopolitical fragmentation providing the Global South with greater flexibility to pursue its strategic goals. For the West, engaging on the Global South’s most pressing concerns may help to foster more constructive partnerships. – Reshaping global governance: the Global South, BRICS and the West

China – Pacific

(Adam Ziogas – ASPI The Strategist) China’s launch of a missile with a dummy warhead across the Pacific on 25 September and responses from Beijing and Paris reveal a lack of respect for Pacific island countries. Not only did China demonstrate its disconnect from the Pacific in an unnecessary show of military force; it reminded others that even in the Pacific, it does not prioritise relationships with Pacific island countries. The missile launched from China travelled nearly 12,000km, passing close to or over Pacific island countries and landing 700km from French Polynesia, a semi-autonomous overseas territory of France. – China’s missile test demonstrates disrespect for Pacific | The Strategist

China – Taiwan

(Erik Green, Meia Nouwens – IISS) China’s 13 October announcement that the Joint Sword-2024B military exercise had begun raised alarm bells in Taipei and Western capitals alike. Coming three days after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s address for Taiwan’s National Day, the Central Military Commission’s promotional video declared that the exercise would ‘deter separatist extremists’ and involve all branches of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the China Coast Guard (CCG). The announcement gave little warning and raised expectations of further escalation across the Taiwan Strait. – China’s Joint-Sword B exercise: a calculated follow-on

Europe 

(Ben Schreer – IISS) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drove a surge in European defence spending, with countries aiming to reduce key capability gaps from underinvestment in the armed forces and the defence-industrial base. Much of this spending appeared to be to the benefit of non-European manufactures, especially the United States. However, new research by the IISS, ahead of its Prague Defence Summit in November 2024, shows a more positive story for European defence suppliers and the defence-industrial base. – Europe’s defence procurement since 2022: a reassessment

Georgia – Russia

(Eto Buziashvili – Atlantic Council) On October 26, Georgians will face a pivotal decision as they vote in their parliamentary elections, which could carry existential consequences for the country’s future. Voters will choose between a pro-Western political opposition and the anti-Western, Kremlin-friendly ruling Georgian Dream party. It’s a decision that could determine Georgia’s future. Either Georgia cements itself in Russia’s orbit—where it already is—or escapes it and returns to a Western path. Two main factors are pressing against a return to a Western path: Russia is influencing Georgian politics with its support for Georgian Dream, and it’s interfering in the upcoming elections in more direct ways, too. – Russia is directly and indirectly meddling in Georgia’s upcoming election – Atlantic Council

Kazakhstan – BRICS

(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Just days before the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Kazakhstan announced that it will likely not consider applying to join the group in the foreseeable future, citing the complexity of gaining membership and the bloc’s future prospects. China and Russia, two key pillars of BRICS, have explicitly supported Kazakhstan’s potential bid, which some believe will convince Kazakhstan to change its stance in the future due to its strong ties with the two countries. Russia responded negatively to Kazakhstan’s announcement, establishing bans on Kazakh imports. Kazakhstan has denounced this move as baseless and amounting to a trade war, indicating that Kazakhstan is likely not as reliant on Russia as it was in the past. – Kazakhstan Pauses Prospective Application to BRICS – Jamestown

North Korea – Russia

(Victor Cha – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Today, the U.S. government confirmed and released evidence that North Korea (DPRK) is sending troops to Russia, backing South Korean and Ukrainian claims in recent weeks. Speaking in Italy after a trip to Ukraine, U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin called this development a “very, very serious issue” and warned of impacts not only in Europe but in the Indo-Pacific as well. While the U.S. government is still uncertain of the role the North Korean troops will play, Austin suggested that this is an indication that Vladimir Putin “may be even in more trouble than most people realize.” Later this afternoon, the White House confirmed that North Korea has moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia and promised to share intelligence, including satellite imagery, in the coming days that will show North Korean ships carrying troops going to Vladivostok, Russia, and other areas for training before potential deployment to the frontlines. – Crossing the Rubicon: DPRK Sends Troops to Russia

(Atlantic Council) They’re already there. On Wednesday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that North Korean troops are in Russia, backing up earlier reports from South Korean intelligence. This news came as Ukrainian intelligence officials warned that thousands of North Korean soldiers will soon be deployed to Kursk, near Russian territory that Ukrainian forces captured in August. What do North Korean soldiers and weapons mean for Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine? What does North Korea get in return? And how does China view all this? – North Korean troops are in Russia. Here’s why. – Atlantic Council

Oman

(Jonathan Campbell-James – The Washington Institute) The activities of Iran’s allies in its “axis of resistance” have brought into focus the major challenge that Oman has always faced in securing its 3,175 km coastline. Oman’s ability to effectively police its own territorial waters is one half of the problem; the other challenge is its limited authority under international law to control traffic passing through its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which stretches from the boundary of its territorial waters to 200 nautical miles from the coastline. Whether within territorial waters or in the EEZ, these waters are heavily used in the supply chain between Iran and its axis of resistance allies, and Omani waters have also seen a rise in attacks by pirates based in Somalia. Oman has undertaken a major effort to improve the effectiveness of coastal security. Given that this is a multi-agency problem, this push is being driven by the National Security Council, where all interested parties are represented. The council sees coastal security as falling under its highest priority—homeland security. Responsibility for the Omani sea area is divided between the Navy, which looks after the EEZ, and the Royal Oman Police’s Coast Guard Division, which is responsible for territorial waters. – Oman Seeks to Improve Its Coastal Security | The Washington Institute

Russia’s War on Ukraine 

(Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Ukraine is under siege from Russian firepower strikes and needs additional Western military aid, expanded sanctions against Moscow’s allies, intelligence support, and long-range strike authorization to defend its citizens. From September 28, 2022, to September 1, 2024, Russia launched a total of 11,466 missiles. On average, 23.2 missiles were launched daily, with the median number of daily launches recorded at 17 missiles. This indicates that while the daily launch rate typically hovered around the mid-20s, there were numerous days with significantly higher activity. Notably, there were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day. These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity. – Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine

USA

(Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) With less than two weeks to election day in the United States, polls suggest the gap between Harris and Trump has narrowed even further in the swing states where the election will be decided. A fierce contest has ensued as each campaign seeks to drive voter turnout. In such a tight race, this will be decisive. But in an election that many Americans perceive as being existential for the country’s future, a narrow victory by either side will heighten the risk of a contested election. – Trust in US democracy is at stake in this election | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

(Nick Childs – IISS) The United States Navy has just carried out a test at sea aimed at reviving its ability to rearm its warships with missiles while underway. But, while this is now seen as critical to sustaining future high-intensity naval operations, it is only part of the answer. – Navies and reloads: no silver bullet?

USA – Latin America

(Christopher Sabatini – Chatham House) The US’s broken immigration system has become a central theme of the 2024 election campaign. But the discussion on immigration, undocumented immigrants, and asylum seekers – increasingly lurching into dehumanizing rhetoric – extends beyond US borders. As one former senior director of the National Security Council told me, ‘when the president travels or meets with heads of state from Latin America what comes up –regardless of the country – isn’t US–Cuba policy or even trade. It’s immigration’. How the US talks about and treats citizens of Latin American and the Caribbean matters to elected politicians in the region. – US election rhetoric on migration undermines Washington’s soft power in Latin America | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

 

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