Geostrategic magazine (22 October 2024)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

Belarus

(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, highlighting the continued significance of the organization for Belarusian foreign policy. For Minsk, the CIS is increasingly attractive, as the logistical semi-blockade on Belarus’s western border has prevented it from engaging with Western countries and blocs. Belarus is likely to play a balancing act, exploring avenues for cooperation within the CIS while also pursuing new partnerships across Asia and Africa. – Belarus Rediscovering Commonwealth of Independent States – Jamestown

BRICS

(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) The BRICS group has become a major political force in the last two decades, building on its desire to create a counterweight to Western influence in global institutions. The group’s expansion in 2023 exemplifies its growing heft, but also brings new disagreements on issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s 2024 leadership could intensify the bloc’s anti-West focus, including attempts to edge out the U.S. dollar—but that will be an uphill battle, experts say. – What Is the BRICS Group and Why Is It Expanding? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

China

(German Marshall Fund of the United States) For many years, China’s nuclear doctrine was widely described as “minimum nuclear deterrence,” which essentially means that it relied on a limited number of nuclear weapons to deter an adversary from attacking. China’s authoritative defense white papers asserted that China sought to maintain a lean, effective and credible deterrent force, was committed to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, pursued a defensive nuclear strategy and would never enter into a nuclear arms race with any other country. In recent years, however, China has begun to expand and modernize its nuclear forces. Beijing is not transparent about its nuclear arsenal or its doctrine, however, which creates uncertainty for the United States and its allies. To help us decipher Beijing’s rapid nuclear expansion, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by John Culver, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and a former CIA senior intelligence officer. He is a co-author of a recent report published by the Atlantic Council titled “Adapting US Strategy to Account for China’s Transformation into a Peer Nuclear Power.” – Deciphering China’s Nuclear Modernization | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)

(Nikki Trewin, Daiki Sato, Adrian Lu – Australian Institute of International Affairs) China’s extensive use of subsidies is a significant driver of global trade tensions, influencing market dynamics and prompting concerns about a potential “subsidy race” among nations. With more anti-dumping measures being taken out against the nation, China may be required to rethink its strategy or lose further trade market share among an increasingly skittish global economy. – “It’s you, not me”: China’s Subsidies and Global Trade Tensions – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs

(Monty Khanna – Observer Research Foundation) China’s nuclear submarine building programme is running on overdrive. If China maintains its current pace of construction of 4.5 to six nuclear submarines per year for the next couple of decades, the number of nuclear boats in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) inventory is set to swell substantially. Nuclear submarines are amongst the most complex and maintenance-heavy platforms ever made globally. They require capable bases with robust repair and maintenance facilities to ensure that they are combat-capable throughout their commissioned lives. While existing Chinese bases have evolved and grown over the years, they will fall short in their ability to home-port this rapidly expanding fleet unless augmented substantially. This report examines existing Chinese nuclear submarine bases and makes a prognosis on how the capacity shortfall is likely to be mitigated in the coming years. – China’s Nuclear Submarine Bases: A Stocktaking (orfonline.org)

(Sze-Fung Lee – The Jamestown Foundation) The Consulates General of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in New York, San Francisco, and Chicago have been conducting gray zone “pop-up” consular service events across the United States under the initiative “Bringing Consular Services into the Community,” often at non-diplomatic facilities. These events provide consular services such as passport renewals and document processing, but their legality remains questionable due to possible violations of international law. These events likely serve as platforms for the PRC’s broader political influence operations, potentially gathering intelligence on Chinese diaspora communities and mobilizing them for future operations, including political activities. The events have been co-hosted by community organizations with links to the CCP’s united front system, raising concerns about data handling and surveillance. The events may also align with the PRC’s broader strategy of influence and electoral interference in the United States, targeting districts with substantial Chinese American populations and potentially mobilizing community support for specific candidates and political agendas. Online propaganda campaigns, coordinated across Chinese and Western social media platforms, accompany the events as part of a gray zone approach to cognitive warfare. – Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics: PRC Consulate Gray Zone ‘Pop-up’ Events in New York and Beyond – Jamestown

(Gloria Xion – Brookings) In what ways did Beijing learn from the strategy, tactics, and legality of U.S. sanctions campaigns? How has China emulated U.S. unilateral sanctions practices? What does China’s domestic discourse on economic coercion tell us about its informal implementation style and its future trajectory? – Beijing’s sanctions dilemma: Chinese narratives on economic coercion (brookings.edu)

(Jeremy Mark – Atlantic Council) As Beijing has intensified its efforts in recent weeks to overcome China’s economic slowdown, speculation has centered on the prospects for a combination of monetary easing, government spending, and investment incentives that will create a “bazooka” stimulus. But the measures announced so far to address the country’s property crisis, falling prices, hoard of local-government debt, and plummeting business and consumer confidence, look unlikely to produce a sustained rebound. – China’s economic stimulus isn’t enough to overcome that sinking feeling – Atlantic Council

China – Africa

(Samir Bhattacharya, Yuvvraj Singh – Observer Research Foundation) In 2014, during the Central Foreign Affairs meeting in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping advocated for strengthening China’s soft power globally by improving how the country communicates its message. In the subsequent years, Chinese state-controlled media focused on cultural investments and international cooperation, establishing marketing networks and expanding the reach of quality cultural assets abroad, particularly in Africa. – China’s information war in Africa (orfonline.org)

Climate Action, Human Security, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development 

(Ana Yang, Henry Throp, Suzannah Sherman – Chatham House) Sustainable bioeconomies can play a significant role in the transition to low-carbon emitting economies that conserve and protect nature, but a lack of cooperation and coordination is obstructing potential progress. A collaborative approach that considers the trade-offs of the bioeconomy is needed to manage the roll-out of innovations and any emergent competition for land and resources. Fragmentation in the geopolitical arena is making the necessary coordination between public and private sectors ever more difficult but there are current forums, such as the G20 and the COP climate summits, in which progress on the bioeconomy can be made. – How strategic collaboration on the bioeconomy can boost climate and nature action | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Gender Equality

(Caroline Delgado, Simone Bunse – SIPRI) In conflict-affected humanitarian settings where there are high levels of food insecurity, women and men face distinct challenges that can deeply affect gender relations. The same is true of food aid. Recognizing this, food aid delivery in conflict settings is often designed to take into account these gendered impacts and challenges—and sometimes even aims to transform gender relations in a lasting way. However, well-intended actions can have unintended negative gendered consequences, contributing to stigma or the risk of violence. This blog explores how and why this may be the case and what can be done about it. While there can be negative impacts for both men and women, this piece primarily focuses on women, who often bear a disproportionate share of the burden due to pre-existing gender inequalities, which can be exacerbated by aid. – Beyond food security: The potential gendered consequences of food aid | SIPRI

Gulf – China

(Emirates Policy Center) Since 2020, China has adopted a strategy to restructure its petrochemical sector in order to localize high-quality technology, aiming to become a global leader in specialty and fine chemicals. China is currently the largest producer in the petrochemicals industry. However, it faces a trade deficit in petrochemicals products, with imports serving as the main means to address this gap, increasing China’s reliance on external markets. China’s domestic demand for chemicals and petrochemicals is expected to continue to sustain foreign investment opportunities at least until the end of the decade. This presents a significant opportunity for Gulf firms looking to invest in the Chinese market and diversify their partnerships beyond traditional exports of crude oil. – Emirates Policy Center | The Future of Gulf-China Cooperation in the Petrochemicals Industry (epc.ae)

IMF – World Bank

(Atlantic Council) According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, countries need to relearn how to work together to achieve mutual prosperity. But with finance ministers and central bank governors descending upon Washington this week for the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, there may only be time for a crash course in cooperation, as they will need to tackle challenges ranging from inflation to debt crises and beyond. To gauge whether delegates can revive the spirit of cooperation in this geopolitically fragmented moment, we’ve sent our experts to the center of the action in Foggy Bottom. Below are their insights, in addition to takeaways from our conversations with financial leaders outlining the global economy’s outlook for the coming years. – Get an inside look at the IMF-World Bank meetings as finance leaders navigate a geopolitically fragmented world – Atlantic Council

India – Canada – China – BRICS

(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) As the diplomatic dispute between India and Canada has escalated and both sides have expelled each other’s diplomats, questions are being raised as to why Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raked up the ‘Khalistan issue’ at this point in time. Is it for vote bank politics, or is Ottawa targeting New Delhi at the behest of a third country? The Five Eyes’ vocal support for Canada, followed by the United States (US) Department of Justice “formally naming and charging” a former RAW official in the Pannun case has further complicated the matter. Beijing is closely observing the heated exchange between India and the Five Eyes Bloc. Chinese debates on the issue suggest some considerations that might be influencing the recent developments. Some Chinese observers view the development from the prism of the upcoming BRICS summit, scheduled for 22-24 October 2024 in Kazan, Russia. This is the first BRICS summit after its major expansion last January. Since then, the grouping’s popularity has been on the rise, with more than 30 countries, including NATO member Türkiye expressing interest in joining the bloc. – Chinese chatter links India-Canada row to BRICS’ de-dollarisation agenda (orfonline.org)

Indonesia

(Tsuyoshi Kawase – East Asia Forum) World trade rules are not enforceable for most of the WTO membership. The Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) was established as a stopgap measure to replace the non-functional WTO Appellate Body, which ceased to operate due to the United States blocking new appointments. The MPIA provides an avenue for resolving trade disputes peacefully and has participation from 57 of the WTO’s 165 members, including Australia, China, the EU and Japan. With multiple disputes against the EU, Indonesia looks ready to join MPIA. Its own indiscretions with export restrictions on nickel have been already appealed into the void. – The appellate void in Indonesia’s trade policy | East Asia Forum

(Riandy Laksono – East Asia Forum) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto aspires to achieve 8 per cent economic growth in his first term, aiming to elevate Indonesia to high-income status by 2045. But this goal appears increasingly unrealistic amid significant fiscal constraints, a low tax base and a struggling manufacturing sector. To approach this ambitious target, Prabowo must focus on increasing revenue, reforming subsidies and enhancing investment, all while maintaining macroeconomic stability to avoid economic pitfalls. – Prabowo’s pursuit of 8 per cent growth won’t be without problems | East Asia Forum

Iran

(Kasra Aarabi, Saeid Golkar – RUSI) Masoud Pezeshkian faces a stark dilemma as president: either appease the IRGC’s power and ideology or alienate his own reformist constituency, risking political paralysis. – The Pezeshkian Paradox: Iran’s New President and the IRGC | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Iraq

(Emirates Policy Center) Iraq ranked second worldwide for poor air quality. The country’s annual average PM2.5 (airborne particles harmful to the lungs) reading was 80.1 micrograms per cubic meter. The reality in Iraq reveals significant challenges in achieving tangible, rapid environmental improvements due to the entangled system of economic and partisan interests that influence Iraq’s budget allocations, government decisions and legislative processes. Without tackling the root causes, environmental pollution in Iraq is likely to worsen, potentially leading to the recurrence of the October environmental crisis in the spring and fall of 2025. – Emirates Policy Center | The Unhealthy Relationship between Politics and the Environment in Iraq (epc.ae)

Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf

(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) The killing of Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar by the Israeli military in the southern Gaza Strip was an inevitable outcome. Since October last year, a core aim for Israel has been to eliminate, and consequently degrade, Hamas hierarchically. After Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah, Sinwar was perhaps the final wild card in the deck; the expectation was that now the Israeli military operations could draw down. However, the exit of Sinwar, Haniyeh, and Nasrallah arguably represents only a part of Israeli thinking, considering similar destruction of leadership had been conducted previously, as seen by the deaths of Abbas Al-Muwasi, Khalil al-Wazir, amongst others. The assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas leadership was always a political decision and not a tactical challenge. Israel has repeatedly shown significant penetration within the ranks of most of these groups and beyond that, even within Iranian polity and society. For years now, Israel and Iran have been involved in a clandestine war. Israel has targeted the Iranian nuclear programme and assassinated scientists inside the country. As part of its counter, over the years, Tehran has built the ‘Axis of Resistance’, a conglomerate of militant groups supported by strategic and geopolitical aims rather than ideology or theology. – From Gaza to Tehran: Illusions and delusions of a ‘new’ Middle East (orfonline.org)

(Mohamed Maher, Mohamed Farid – The Washington Institute) In 1979, Egypt and Israel signed a historic peace agreement. More than four decades later, this treaty remains a cornerstone of regional stability. However, with the escalating conflict in Gaza and increasing internal pressures on Egypt, Israel’s ongoing military presence in the Philadelphia Corridor—the border strip separating Gaza and Sinai—poses a complex challenge to Egypt-Israel relations. Israel seized the Rafah border crossing on May 7, causing Egypt to close the crossing from its side. Since then, Egypt has demanded that Israel withdraw from the crossing and from the Philadelphia Corridor, but building public pressure within Egypt may make these demands more urgent for the health of future bilateral relations. – Will the Philadelphia Corridor Reignite Tensions Between Egypt and Israel? | The Washington Institute

(Middle East Institute) The extent to which Yahya Sinwar’s death can be leveraged to bring about a cease-fire will depend on the Biden administration and whether it is actually prepared to apply meaningful and public pressure on the Netanyahu government, something it has thus far refused to do. Sinwar may be succeeded by one of the exiled Hamas leaders based in Qatar, who have proven more flexible toward a cease-fire; but these individuals may have limited access to and influence over operational decisions inside Gaza. – Special Briefing: Yahya Sinwar’s death alone won’t end the war | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

(Emirates Policy Center) Oil prices have surged since Iran’s attack on Israel in early October 2024. However, there is a complex interplay between factors driving prices up and those pushing them down. A potential Israeli strike on Iran’s oil installations could lead to a sharp spike in global oil prices. Such an event may compel China to seek alternative oil suppliers, potentially redrawing the map of oil trade flows. Unplanned disruptions affecting the oil market could see rapid responses from key players like OPEC+, which would be critical in setting price trends. Despite this, OPEC+ is expected to continue its policy of supporting higher prices, even if comes at the cost of market share of its members. Market fundamentals currently favor factors that could lead to a decline in oil prices. Nevertheless, OPEC+ seems inclined to sustain high prices, even if this would impact the market share of its member countries. This policy may carry risks in light of the weak demand and increased supply from non-member countries. – Emirates Policy Center | The Future of Oil Prices in Light of OPEC+ Strategies and Rising Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East (epc.ae)

Moldova

(Atlantic Council) Under “assault,” they’re still standing. On Sunday, Moldovans narrowly voted to enshrine the goal of joining the European Union (EU) in the country’s constitution. Meanwhile, Moldova’s pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, did not clear 50 percent of the vote and thus will compete in a runoff election on November 3. The pivotal elections were hit by an extensive influence operation from Russia, which Sandu on Sunday called an “unprecedented assault” on Moldova’s democracy. – Five questions (and expert answers) about Moldova’s elections – Atlantic Council

Russia

(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) The pro-Kremlin Valdai Discussion Club conference on Sino-Russian relations on October 14–15 demonstrated Moscow’s goals of building a new world order together with the so-called “world majority” as a result of Russia’s declining status on the world stage. Even analysts close to the Kremlin recognized that Russia now exerts no significant influence over most other countries and lacks a strong economic foothold, in part due to Western sanctions. Russian analysts continue to emphasize how the Kremlin would benefit from a “bigger war” in the Middle East to draw attention away from Ukraine and promote Russia’s typical method of creating global instability to maintain its international influence. – Russia Hopes to Use ‘World Majority’ Against the West – Jamestown

Russia’s War on Ukraine 

(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine has intensified its behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s promotion of his own victory plan, despite little change on the battlefield. Zelenskyy’s proposal emphasizes that only a bold stride toward victory can make his plan feasible, but a significant shift in the balance of forces is necessary for bringing the Russians to the table as part of a second peace summit. Moscow tries to peddle a narrative that it is also interested in peace. However, this is transparently false, and world leaders know that Russia is only interested in exploiting violent conflicts around the globe and promoting instability. – No Shortcut to Hard Road to Peace in Ukraine – Jamestown

South China Sea

(Joe Keary – ASPI The Strategist) Deployments of ships and aircraft to challenge China’s illegal claims in the South China Sea are increasing. European ships are appearing more often, while Asia-Pacific countries are increasingly conducting activities in areas that China regards as sensitive. Several nations have claims in the South China Sea, but China’s claim is the most extensive and controversial. Beijing seeks to enforce sovereign rights and jurisdiction over all features within the nine-dash line, including the islands, rocks and atolls that make up the Paracel and Spratly Islands. China claims this territory despite a 2016 ruling that found that China’s claims had no basis in international law. – Military challenges to Beijing’s South China Sea claims are increasing | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Southern Asia

(Arun Sahgal, PR Kumar – Observer Research Faoundation) The world is in a geopolitical transition marked by great power competition, which has divided the world into two blocs. As the power equations shift and strategic competition intensifies, major powers are revisiting their nuclear doctrines and capabilities. As Russia makes significant territorial gains, there is a strong demand from Ukraine to escalate the war deep into Russia. In response, Russia has conveyed that any strategically adverse situation so created may not remain conventional, resulting in the use of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons (NSNW), along with their attendant consequences. – Strategic stability in Southern Asia and the role of non-strategic nuclear weapons (orfonline.org)

Space

(Clayton Swope, Louis Gleason – Center for Strategic & International Studies) There is a lot of promise—and hype—around the future of humankind in cislunar space, roughly the area between geosynchronous Earth orbit and the Moon. But there are also hard realities. Operating in cislunar space presents new technical and policy challenges that the United States and its allies will want to consider. Over the last several years, over 10 nations and the European Space Agency have sent missions toward the Moon. Many more missions are planned over the next 10 years. To maximize the chances of success for the United States and partners in cislunar space, this report examines the overall cislunar landscape, identifies challenges, and outlines key considerations and ideas for space leaders to consider. – Salmon Swimming Upstream: Charting a Course in Cislunar Space (csis.org)

Timor-Leste

(Mericio Juvinal dos Reis “Akara”, Rheinhard Sirait – Lowy The Interpreter) Timor-Leste is on the brink of a digital revolution with the anticipated arrival of a submarine cable promising faster and more affordable internet access. At present, only 44.3 per cent of the Timor-Leste population enjoys internet connectivity, according to DataReportal.com, with slow speeds predominating – an average of 4.85 Mbps for mobile and 6.10 Mbps for broadband. Timor’s internet service remains not only slow and unreliable but also prohibitively expensive, as many citizens – many whom live on barely more than $2 per day – spend up to $1 daily for access. This places Timor-Leste among the countries with some of the slowest and most costly internet services globally. – A cable to connect Timor-Leste, but can it bridge the digital divide? | Lowy Institute

USA

(Riley McCabe – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The number of domestic terrorist attacks and plots against government targets motivated by partisan political beliefs in the past five years is nearly triple the number of such incidents in the previous 25 years combined, according to new CSIS analysis of 30 years of domestic terrorism data in the United States. This includes attacks and plots against elected officials, political candidates, political party officials, and political workers from terrorists with opposing political views. This rising threat warrants continued efforts to increase protective security measures of government targets, strengthen response plans in the event of a successful attack, and counter the spread of disinformation, conspiracy theories, and violent rhetoric that have motivated many attackers. – The Rising Threat of Anti-Government Domestic Terrorism: What the Data Tells Us (csis.org)

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