From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Germany; India; Libya; Russia-Ukraine; UK; US-China; US-Gulf-Middle East
Germany
(Nicolai von Ondarza – Chatham House) After three years of an inward-looking German government preoccupied with infighting, new chancellor Friedrich Merz has promised that ‘Germany is back’ – both in Europe and on the international stage. His first days as chancellor were set to emphasize this ambition, with visits to Paris, Warsaw, Brussels and Kyiv, the latter together with the leaders of France, Poland and the UK. The new government’s coalition treaty promises a stronger, more integrated German foreign and EU policy, enabling it to play a bigger role in European security and deterrence against Russia. – No honeymoon for Merz as the new German government already faces domestic constraints | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Claudia Major, Christian Mölling – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Germany is undergoing a profound strategic transformation. Long associated with military restraint, fiscal discipline, and a reliance on the United States for its security guarantees, the country is now departing from its post-Cold War posture. At the heart of this transformation is not only a change of government but a broader political awakening to the realities of a more dangerous world – and to the fragility of the transatlantic relationship. – Germany’s Strategic Reckoning: Finally Ready to Assume Leadership | German Marshall Fund of the United States
India
(Deepanshu Mohan, Aditi Desai – East Asia Forum) Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited’s return to profitability in the fourth quarter of 2024 following 17 years of losses is an exception not an indicator of wider systemic reform in India’s public sector, with ongoing structural weaknesses across state-run enterprises. While attempts to reform India’s public sector have led to a decline in loss-making companies, losses remain substantial with BSNL continuing to rely on government aid for survival. This underlines the need for greater operational autonomy, performance accountability, professionalised management, market-based discipline and meaningful structural change. – India’s public sector needs structural reform, not temporary fixes | East Asia Forum
Libya
(Tim Eaton – Chatham House) On Monday night, images circulated of Abdelghani al-Kikli, a powerful armed group commander from Tripoli, lying dead. Kikli, known popularly as ‘Ghneiwa’, had travelled to the Tekbali military camp on Monday to meet with armed group commanders allied with Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba. The details of what happened are sketchy, but it appears that a gunfight led to the deaths of Ghneiwa and his bodyguards. The escalating situation has revealed the reality that Libya’s so-called stability was much more fragile than it seemed. It also exposes the lack of seriousness of efforts to improve the country’s governance. – Escalating conflict in Tripoli exposes the realities of false stability – and international neglect in Libya | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia – Ukraine
(John E. Herbst – Atlantic Council) The results are now in from the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since the revelations of Russian atrocities in the Ukrainian cities of Bucha and Irpin three years ago. And one thing is clear: It remains Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aim to seize more territory so that he can achieve effective political control over Ukraine. The talks were productive in the important but limited sense that the sides agreed to each exchange one thousand prisoners of war. But the parties took no steps toward an eventual end to the hostilities, as the Kremlin negotiators insisted that Ukrainian troops withdraw from areas of Ukraine that Moscow has “annexed.” – To achieve his goal of a durable peace, Trump must turn up the pressure on Putin – Atlantic Council
UK
(Chatham House) As trade tensions, security concerns, and diplomatic crossroads converge, the UK’s bid for economic growth faces hard choices on the global stage. Bronwen Maddox explores the UK’s complex balancing act between the EU, US and China with guests Janka Oertel and Sir Martin Donnelly. – Independent Thinking: Can the UK take on the EU, US and China? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – China
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States and China narrowly avoided a trade war by agreeing to a ninety-day pause on steep tariffs. The truce is not a bona fide trade deal, but the stage is now set for serious negotiations on a potentially broader and longer-term agreement. – Back From the Brink. Where Next? | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Gulf – Middle East
(Neil Quilliam – Chatham House) On 14 May 2025, US President Donald Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh. It was the first high-level US–Syria meeting since US President Bill Clinton met with Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in Geneva 25 years ago. This extraordinary moment seemingly gave al-Sharaa the US stamp of approval and signalled that the Trump administration has finally arrived at a Syria policy. – The meeting of al-Sharaa and Trump has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Robert Satloff – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) He came. He saw. He cashed in. That sums up President Trump’s visit to the Gulf. Don’t focus too closely on the actual numbers – it’s the imagery that was unmistakable. This was Donald Trump in his element, visiting princes and potentates and celebrating the signing of huge contracts that validate the president’s mercantilist economic strategy. Throughout, President Trump seemed to relish breaking new ground. – President Trump’s Gulf Trip: A Whirlwind Three Days in the Region | The Washington Institute
(Paul Salem – Middle East Institute) In addition to the many trade and business deals, and the significant political announcements made during Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf, the trip itself marks an important shift in the geopolitical landscape. First, for a US president to undertake a multi-day trip to the Middle East – especially as his first official overseas visit of this term – and not to include Israel, is largely unprecedented and indicates that the President sees the Gulf countries as America’s main centre of interest and partnership in the region. Israel remains, of course, a close US ally and partner, but its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, must be left questioning where Israel lies in Mr Trump’s mind-map of interests and priorities. – How Trump’s Gulf visit could transform the Middle East | Middle East Institute
(Soufan Center) President Trump’s multi-country tour of the Middle East has received widespread attention, as his visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have garnered more than $1 trillion in investments. During this stop in Saudi Arabia, President Trump announced that Saudi Arabia would be investing $600 billion in the U.S., while also offering a $142 billion arms package to Riyadh. Another interesting part of Trump’s visit was a meeting brokered by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) between Trump and the interim leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa. In Qatar, President Trump met with Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, where they discussed a range of issues, including the ongoing war in Gaza. – Assessing President Trump’s Multi-Country Middle East Visit – The Soufan Center
