From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, Azerbaijan – Israel, East Asia-USA, Eastern Mediterranean-Cyprus-Türkiye, Middle East, North Korea, Russia, Russia-Afghanistan, Russia-Azerbaijan, Russia-Belarus, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, South Korea, Syria, USA, USA-Greenland-China
Africa
(Brookings) 2025 will be a critical juncture for Africa’s trajectory. New political leadership in both the African Union and the United States coincides with the urgent need to meet the looming 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals, to accelerate implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and to modernize and renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act—a cornerstone of the U.S. Africa trade relationship—currently set to expire in September 2025. Paired with an escalating climate crisis and the reverberations of conflict and global economic instability, these dynamics will require bold and coordinated policy action to address Africa’s unique challenges while leveraging its vast potential. – Foresight Africa 2025-2030 | Brookings
Azerbaijan – Israel
(Zeev (Vladimir) Khanin, Alex Grinberg – BESA Center) The Trump administration, which begins its work on January 20th, places the security of Israel, its primary ally in the Middle East, at the forefront. Statements from Trump’s close associates clearly indicate that his doctrine includes provisions for expanding the Abraham Accords. In this context, the Israeli leadership and national diplomacy—both governmental and public—should judiciously direct Washington’s attention to those actors in the geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Asia who have long-established strategic partnerships with Jerusalem and can positively impact the role of the Jewish state in Trump’s envisioned “new Middle East”. Azerbaijan deserves special attention as it holds the longest and most comprehensive partnership with Israel among Muslim nations. – Azerbaijan: One of the Pillars of Israel’s Regional Security System – A Brief Overview for the Trump Administration
East Asia – USA
(Landon Derentz, Joseph Webster, and Reid I’Anson – Atlantic Council) East Asia’s scarce energy resources, coupled with the vast distances that separate the United States and its Indo-Pacific partners and allies, will be a consequential—and possibly decisive—element in any major confrontation between a United States-led coalition and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). – East Asia’s energy security challenges can be mitigated by US LNG – Atlantic Council
Eastern Mediterranean – Cyprus – Türkiye
(Euripides Evriviades – RUSI) The Eastern Mediterranean is increasingly becoming a geopolitical battleground, where competing claims over maritime rights, energy resources, and regional influence converge. The Republic of Cyprus (RoC) faces escalating challenges from Turkey’s irredentist and Neo-Ottoman agenda, epitomised by its proclaimed ‘Blue Homeland’ (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. This concept, echoing China’s ‘Blue Soil’ strategy from 2010, underscores Ankara’s ambition to assert and maintain maritime dominance in the region. – The Eastern Mediterranean: Cyprus and the Geopolitics of Turkish Irredentism | Royal United Services Institute
Middle East
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) A cease-fire and hostage deal does not necessarily end the war. It is important to keep in mind that when Hamas launched its attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, it was also launching a total war that included a broad international effort to de-legitimize the state of Israel. Even if a cease-fire were to end the hostilities in Gaza, as the draft agreement reportedly envisions, Hamas, affiliated groups, and other international actors like the Iranian regime would continue the war by other means. – Israel and Hamas Reach Cease-Fire, but Will the War End? | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) Now comes the even harder part. On Wednesday, negotiators from Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of the remaining hostages taken by the terrorist group during its October 7, 2023 attack. The deal, mediated by US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials, will take place over three phases, each slated to last six weeks. During the first phase, Hamas will release thirty-three hostages—women, children, and those over fifty years of age—and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, begin to withdraw from some areas, and facilitate a significant increase in humanitarian aid into Gaza. In the second phase, Hamas is slated to free the remaining male hostages while Israel withdraws from Gaza. The third phase would include the return of deceased hostages and the beginning of reconstruction. Does this deal, which now heads to the Israeli cabinet for approval, really mark the end of the war? What’s next for Gaza’s reconstruction, Israel’s security, and wider regional efforts such as Israeli-Saudi normalization? – Experts react: Everything you need to know about the Israel-Hamas cease-fire and hostage deal – Atlantic Council
(Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Siddhant Kishore, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Gaza Strip Ceasefire: Israel and Hamas approved a ceasefire-hostage agreement on January 15. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani announced that mediators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt will monitor the ceasefire, which will take effect on January 19. Hamas appears to have agreed to allow the IDF to remain in the Philadelphi Corridor, an operationally and strategically significant IDF-held area in the southern Gaza Strip, during at least the first phase of the ceasefire.
Iraqi Parliamentary Politics: A large number of Iraqi political parties boycotted parliament on January 15, likely to demonstrate their ability to rally sufficient support to block parliament. The Iraqi Parliament Speaker and his allies, including the United Sunni Leadership Coalition, may also have deliberately blocked the General Amnesty Law in order to block the passage of the Intelligence Service Law, which was also on the agenda.
Syria-Turkey Meeting: Syrian interim government officials met with senior Turkish defense officials in Ankara on January 15, likely to discuss military coordination as well as Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and Turkish efforts to coerce the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm. The Syrian delegation in Ankara also likely briefed Turkish officials on the progress of their negotiations with the SDF. The SDF has continued to push back against HTS demands for its disarmament and integration into the Syrian Defense Ministry. – Iran Update, January 15, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
North Korea
(Joseph Dempsey – IISS) Images broadcast by the North Korean state media channel, Korean Central Television (KCTV), appear to confirm earlier analysis by the IISS that North Korea is building its largest-ever warship. On 29 December 2024, KCTV aired a report that included four still images showing President Kim Jong-un inspecting a new naval vessel under construction. – North Korea reveals new surface combatant
Russia
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s arms exports dropped by 92 percent from 2021 to 2024 due to redirected resources for Ukraine, sanctions, inflation, and funding issues. The number of countries purchasing Russian arms has dropped dramatically. Major customers such as India have shown caution or shifted to competitors such as the People’s Republic of China. Russia has been promoting its Su-57E stealth fighter, emphasizing combat experience in Ukraine, but faces setbacks such as poor international sales and buyer reluctance. Despite challenges, Moscow is focusing on domestic contracts. – Russian Arms Exports Collapse by 92 Percent as Military-Industrial Complex Fails – Jamestown
Russia – Afghanistan
(Nargiza Umarova – The Jamestown Foundation) Western sanctions against Russia have hampered northern cargo transportation routes used by most Eurasian states, leading Russia to increase relations with the Taliban government on transport communications to connect to the South Asian market. Extending the International North-South Transport Corridor to Afghanistan and Pakistan will be beneficial for Moscow in avoiding the consequences of the escalating military conflict in the Middle East, which could involve Iran. Russia’s participation in the development of trans-Afghan communications could lead to a conflict of interests between the Central Asian states implementing their own transport projects in partnership with the Taliban. – Russia Seeks to Extend Transport Routes to Afghanistan – Jamestown
Russia – Azerbaijan
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of transparency, and open airspace amid tensions, leading President Ilham Aliyev to demand formal acknowledgment and accountability for those responsible. The Azerbaijani Airlines plane crash has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Baku’s relationship with Moscow and fueled resentment against Russia in Azerbaijani society. – Airplane Crash Exposes Flaws in Baku-Moscow Relations – Jamestown
Russia – Belarus
(George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) The Kremlin is in the endgame of a decades’ long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus — an effort which will permanently augment Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical objectives against the United States and NATO. – Russia’s Quiet Conquest: Belarus | Institute for the Study of War
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Davit Gasparyan, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, William Runkel, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of January 14 to 15.
Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on January 15, their first POW exchange in 2025.
A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian drone and artillery capabilities are providing Ukrainian tanks with tactical advantages over Russian tanks in unspecified, select areas of the frontline.
Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky announced on January 15 that Russia will soon provide Transnistria with gas as “humanitarian aid” but did not specify the delivery date or method.
Armenia continues to enhance its relations with Western partners amid waning relations with Russia.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk directions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 15 that about 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently operating in Ukraine. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
South Korea
(Victor Cha, Ellen Kim – CSIS) Yoon Suk Yeol, the lionized prosecutor-turned-politician who led the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye before becoming president himself, was arrested this morning at 10:33 am Seoul time on charges of insurrection related to his declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024. He is the first sitting South Korean president ever to be arrested. – The Arrest of President Yoon Suk Yeol – Beyond Parallel
Syria
(Steven Heydemann – Brookings) With the fall of the Assad regime, Syrians now have the opportunity to build the future for which so many fought, died, and suffered over the past 13 years. Whether they will be able to do so is uncertain. Early indicators offer some basis for optimism, yet if Syria’s still-nascent transition is to succeed, a new government will need to move urgently to repair Syria’s devastated economy. Today, most Syrians live in desperate economic conditions. The United Nations reports that more than 90% of Syrians live in poverty, while the cost of living has tripled in the past three years. By 2017, when violence began to ebb, a third of the country’s housing stock had been destroyed, along with half of its medical and educational facilities and its power grid. In most of the country, electricity is available for only a few hours each day. – Syria needs sanctions relief now
USA
(David Kenneth Smith – Stimson Center) The United States faces escalating global nuclear threats, with multiple nuclear-armed states modernizing arsenals, testing cutting-edged delivery systems, including ballistic and hypersonic missiles, and signaling readiness to cross historic red lines relative to the use of nuclear weapons. Amidst this volatility, proposals for the incoming Trump administration to resume US underground nuclear testing risk undermining decades of international restraint that rendered such tests a global anathema. Resuming nuclear testing by the United States is unnecessary and destabilizing. A return to nuclear testing will weaken established international norms, to include a test ban, and set an uncertain course that brings the world closer to the catastrophic use of these weapons. Proliferators will take their cues from any decision by the United States. Further testing would only incrementally provide new information not already available from comprehensive laboratory studies and simulations. The current moratorium on nuclear testing by the United States is a critical pillar of global nuclear restraint. – The Chapter on US Nuclear Testing Must be Closed • Stimson Center
(Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) The boldness with which President Donald Trump is remaking the rules of US diplomacy has been dizzying. His threat to levy tariffs against America’s friends comes at a bad time. Growth has stalled across many G7 countries, states are struggling to cope with inflation, and tariffs will be harmful to trade-dependent sectors. Trump’s geopolitical gambits are categorically worse. Countries that depend on US security assistance, like Ukraine and Taiwan, already feared abandonment. Now, Greenland and Canada have been informed they are on the list for US territorial acquisition. National leaders, in Mexico, Canada and Europe are scrambling to find an adequate response. – The new Trump administration could herald a remaking of the international order. How should the world respond? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Adam Looney, Elena Patel – Brookings) President-elect Trump has suggested that he will impose a wide-range of tariffs when he takes office, including a blanket tariff of 10–20% on all imported goods, an additional tariff between 60 and 100% on Chinese goods, a 100% tariff on countries within the BRICS alliance if they attempt to undermine the U.S. dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, and a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada. Notably, he wants to impose at least some of these tariffs on day one. Can he impose tariffs that quickly? Potentially, yes. – Trump could impose tariffs on day one, with few checks on that power
USA – Greenland – China
(Paul Weisko – INSS) President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal to annex Greenland may seem unconventional and harmful to Greenland’s people. Still, it aligns with U.S. national security priorities in the face of growing competition with China. – Why Trump wants to freeze china out of Greenland | INSS
