From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: AUKUS; Australia; Australia-Indonesia; BIMSTEC; Global Trade-Waterways; Japan-UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women; Solomon Islands-China; Taiwan; US-China; US-Iran; US-Middle East-Gulf-Syria; US-Syria; Vietnam
AUKUS
(Nishank Motwani – The Strategist) AUKUS is one of the most ambitious allied defence undertakings in decades. But for all the high-end platforms and advanced capabilities it promises, a fundamental question remains underexplored: what, exactly, is AUKUS seeking to deter? This question matters—not just as a theoretical exercise, but as a strategic imperative that will shape the effectiveness, and ultimate success, of the AUKUS enterprise. – AUKUS and deterrence: what, exactly, are we trying to deter? | The Strategist
Australia
(David Uren – The Strategist) Australia’s free-trade agreements with nations other than China have delivered diversification in neither exports nor imports over the past decade, leaving Australia more tightly bound by trade to China than any other advanced nation. While trading partners, led by Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, did help Australia to endure a three-year Chinese assault on its exports, which began in 2020, their shares of Australian exports contracted once China dropped its discriminatory bans. – No, Australian trade isn’t diversifying away from China | The Strategist
(Nicole Brown – The Strategist) Coming off the back of a successful NT Defence Week, one thing is clearer than ever: the Northern Territory is not just a remote outpost—it is an asset central to our national security, economic resilience and future-focused industry growth. Today, supply chain disruptions are a daily reality, not just a possibility. As we face growing threats—from international conflicts and climate change, to pandemics and trade tensions—the need for robust, sovereign and localised supply chains has never been more urgent. For northern Australia, this is both a challenge and enormous opportunity. – Localising northern supply chains will strengthen national resilience | The Strategist
Australia – Indonesia
(Robert Walker, Hilman Palaon – The Interpreter) The freshly re-elected Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is wasting no time, making the customary first overseas visit to Indonesia on Wednesday only one day after swearing in a new cabinet. There will be much to talk about, but critical minerals will likely be a priority for the Indonesian side. On a call with President Prabowo Subianto, Albanese proudly stated the relationship between “Australia and Indonesia is an unbreakable bond” and on Australian television declared “We have no more important relationship than Indonesia just to our north”. – A critical mineral match for Australia and Indonesia | Lowy Institute
BIMSTEC
(Nazia Hussain – East Asia Forum) The 6th Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit was held in Bangkok, where leaders from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand reaffirmed their intent to bolster regional cooperation amid debates on the future of multilateralism. Leaders adopted several agreements and the first-ever vision document to boost economic integration and human security. Despite the positive steps forward, BIMSTEC is still facing significant challenges with economic integration and long-stagnant connectivity projects. Political unrest in Bangladesh, the current chair of BIMSTEC, along with growing tensions between India and Bangladesh, are adding to the uncertainty of the organisation’s future. – A reinvigorated BIMSTEC hopes to avoid regional pitfalls | East Asia Forum
Global Trade – Waterways
(Selwyn Parker – The Interpreter) After a combined 265 years in operation, the domination of the two great artificial waterways – the Panama and Suez canals – in global trade is under threat from alternative routes for shipping. One is via an even more ambitious constructed canal that would blindside US President Donald Trump’s plan to take over the Panama Canal, while the others are open sea routes and “land bridges” that link ports with rail. But first, what’s wrong with the original waterways – global trade’s historic “choke points”? – Beyond Panama and Suez: The new trade routes in a bid to reshape global shipping | Lowy Institute
Japan – UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women
(Ming Gao – East Asia Forum) Japan’s January withdrawal of funding from the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women highlights its aversion to addressing gender equality issues at home. Despite externally presenting a commitment to progressive gender norms, a tension between Japan’s international image and its domestic reality persists. Japan continues to rank low in major gender equality indexes as reluctance for reforms, societal expectations and challenges to women’s career progression keep gender disparities alive. – Japan’s UN funding cut leaves women’s rights in the lurch | East Asia Forum
Solomon Islands – China
(Blake Johnson – The Strategist) The Chinese embassy in Solomon Islands has reportedly pressured newly appointed Minister of Rural Development Daniel Waneoroa to quit an international group that challenges China’s authoritarian regime. This incident highlights Beijing’s increased tendency to pressure foreign elites, despite rhetoric around non-interference in domestic affairs. Pacific leaders and their foreign partners should be watching. Waneoroa said he made the decision to resign from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) last week ‘in the interest of fostering stability and aligning with a collective national vision’. That national vision is likely one that strongly adheres to the ‘One-China principle’ in exchange for financial benefits from Beijing. – Chinese pressure is a part of Solomon Islands’ politics. Other Pacific countries should take note | The Strategist
Taiwan
(Mark Harrison – The Strategist) Complex developments in Taiwan’s domestic legislative politics may affect the regional security outlook over the next 12 months. Since his election in 2024, Taiwan president Lai Ching-te has upheld the disciplined foreign policy of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, with some domestic policy innovation. But his party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), does not have a majority in the legislature. The opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) have sought to capitalise on their combined majority and permanently shift Taiwan’s political centre of gravity to the legislature by initiating a series of laws to expand legislative intervention over the presidential office, revise the constitutional court and restrict the national budget. – The Lai Ching-te government shifts gears | The Strategist
US – China
(Philip Luck – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On May 12, 2025, the Trump administration announced a mutual reduction in trade measures between the United States and China. This includes not only a reduction in tariffs—bringing U.S. rates down from 145 percent to 30 percent (which is on top of sectoral and Section 301 tariffs), and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125 percent to 10 percent—but also the relaxation of the critical minerals export restrictions China put in place following “Liberation Day.”. While many details remain unresolved, this tariff rollback marks a welcome step that could help ease inflation and bolster economic prospects. However, it does not undo the significant damage already inflicted by elevated costs, disrupted supply chains, heightened uncertainty, and weakened U.S. credibility with allies. The ongoing reliance on an erratic trade policy—marked by temporary fixes, strategic inconsistency, and persistent unpredictability—continues to undermine long-term economic resilience and U.S. global leadership, while imposing avoidable costs on consumers and businesses alike. – Understanding the Temporary De-Escalation of the U.S.-China Trade War
US – Iran
(Council on Foreign Relations) Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the ongoing talks between the United States and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program. – The Iran Nuclear Talks, With Karim Sadjadpour | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Middle East – Gulf – Syria
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) There has never been a US presidential visit to the Middle East like this one. This week, success will be measured not in conventional diplomacy, peace deals, or arms sales, although Donald Trump did make some news by lifting sanctions on the Syrian leadership, urging Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to join the Abraham Accords by normalizing relations with Israel, and agreeing to a $142 billion weapons package for Riyadh. What sets Trump’s visit apart is the greater focus on the hundreds of billions of dollars of new Middle Eastern investments into the United States ($600 billion from Saudi Arabia alone). Gulf partners will measure success by the Trump administration’s willingness to lift restrictions on the sale of hundreds of thousands of advanced semiconductor chips to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Trump will also measure success by his ability to outmaneuver China in securing a closer relationship with Gulf monarchies than the Chinese have, even though Beijing is their biggest fossil-fuel customer. – Trump’s remarkable Middle East tour is all about striking megadeals and outfoxing China – Atlantic Council
US – Syria
(Mona Yacoubian – Center for Strategic & International Studies) President Trump announced the intention to lift U.S. sanctions on the Syrian government during a speech in Riyadh, his first stop on a four-day tour of the Gulf. Syria is among the most sanctioned countries in the world, subject to multiple layers of direct U.S. sanctions as well as secondary sanctions targeting third countries that might invest in Syria. The Syrian economy has all but collapsed in recent years, in part due to strict sanctions that cut the country off from the global financial system. While the president can waive or suspend sanctions through an executive order, congressionally mandated sanctions can only be repealed by Congress. – Trump Announces Lifting of Sanctions on Syria
(Atlantic Council) “We’re taking them all off.” US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Washington will remove all US sanctions on the Syrian government. The announcement comes five months after the overthrow of dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime, in a snap opposition offensive led by new President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s militant group. The new Syrian leadership and its supporters have pushed for sanctions relief to help rebuild from the rubble of more than a decade of civil war—accompanied by promises of establishing a more free and tolerant Syria. But skepticism remains regarding al-Sharaa’s past links to al-Qaeda and communal massacres against minority groups that have taken place since he came to power. How will the removal of US sanctions affect Syria’s economy and future US-Syria relations? And what are the wider implications for the region? – Experts react: Trump just announced the removal of all US sanctions on Syria. What’s next? – Atlantic Council
Vietnam
(Hai Hong Nguyen – East Asia Forum) The Communist Party of Vietnam is enacting its most ambitious governance reforms in decades, aiming to streamline the governance system to better realise national development aspirations. While not officially a move towards federalism, these reforms — backed by Vietnam’s top leaders — mirror core federalist principles, raising the possibility of a new governance model under continued Communist Party control. – Will Vietnam’s governance reforms push it towards federalism? | East Asia Forum
