From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : BRICS, Canada, China-Taiwan, Georgia, Iran-Syria, Middle East, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, South Korea, Türkiye-Syria-Libya, USA, USA-Africa, USA-China, Human Rights
BRICS
(Oommen C. Kurian, Debosmita Sarkar, Shoba Suri – Observer Research Foundation) The BRICS+ bloc, accounting for over 40 percent of the world’s population and a substantial share of its forest area, can play a critical role in shaping responses to climate-related health threats. The grouping’s leadership in harmonising policies across the domains of climate action and healthcare can have profound implications for global strategies to manage pandemics and protect planetary health. This brief makes a case for BRICS to champion the ‘One Health’ framework to understanding and addressing the nexus of climate change and public health. – The Role of BRICS Leadership in Forging Climate and Health Strategies for a One-Health World
Canada
(Ann Fitz-Gerald, Halyna Padalko – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The lines between war and peace are becoming increasingly blurred, with daily global news recording fresh examples of hybrid attacks and below-threshold military activities from Russia, other authoritarian regimes and various non-state armed groups. These developments have compelled Canadians to reflect more deeply on national security, and generated a growing appetite for a more robust defence posture and a call for readiness to confront modern threats with renewed determination. – Canadians Are Ready to Strengthen National Defence – Centre for International Governance Innovation
China – Taiwan
(Cheryl Yu – The Jamestown Foundation) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s united front tactics include recruiting Taiwanese content creators and youth through cultural exchanges, financial incentives, and networking opportunities, according to a viral Taiwanese documentary released in December 2024. CCP officials target Taiwanese individuals, including those who have never visited the People’s Republic of China (PRC). They have also offered social media influencers with large followings all-expenses-paid trips to the PRC, and to facilitate the provision of PRC identification documentation for other Taiwanese citizens. Taiwan’s response has been mixed. Public awareness of and student activism against united front activities have increased, but some political figures have downplayed the documentary or echoed CCP talking points. – Viral Documentary Exposes CCP’s United Front Operations in Taiwan – Jamestown
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The Georgian parliament inaugurated a new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, on December 29 despite continuing protests calling for repeat parliamentary elections and the continuation of EU rapprochement. Western leaders have imposed sanctions on key Georgian officials, including informal leader and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, for undermining democracy. Deteriorating Western relations have caused a sharp decline in foreign investment and halted major economic projects. Russia and the People’s Republic of China are exploiting Georgia’s cooling ties with the West to expand economic and soft power influence. Strengthening ties between the countries are raising concerns over Georgia’s geopolitical alignment. – Georgia Faces Becoming a Pariah State to West – Jamestown
Iran – Syria
(The Soufan Center) The fall of the Assad regime necessitated the dismantlement of Tehran’s politico-military infrastructure in the country, severely setting back Iran’s regional and national security strategy. Iranian leaders are divided on whether to try to rebuild Iran’s position in Syria or promote stability there. The new Syrian leaders, Sunni Islamists backed by Türkiye, have vowed to deny Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–Qods Force the use of Syrian territory to arm and advise Lebanese Hezbollah or other pro-Iranian actors. Compounding Iran’s setbacks, leaders in Iraq and Lebanon are seeking to curb the autonomy and operations of Iran-aligned armed factions in their countries. – Iran Struggles with Assad’s Collapse – The Soufan Center
Middle East
(Siddhant Kishore, Kelly Campa, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Gaza Strip Ceasefire: Israeli and Hamas officials appear to be optimistic after achieving a “breakthrough” in ceasefire negotiations in Doha on January 13. Negotiations over the buffer zone and a continued IDF presence in the Gaza Strip remain sticking points. – Hamas Reconstitution: Hamas is attempting to rebuild its military organization, but persistent IDF pressure and the severely degraded state of Hamas’ military forces will make this process extremely difficult and long. Current Israeli military operations are designed to prevent the successful regeneration of Hamas by denying Hamas adequate safe areas to train new recruits, particularly in the northern Gaza Strip. – Hamas Leadership: The Wall Street Journal reported that senior Hamas military commander in the Gaza Strip Mohammad Sinwar has reportedly begun operating autonomously from the main Hamas leadership and ignored the Hamas decision to make decisions through a leadership council. Sinwar has likely delegated control of day-to-day efforts in the northern Gaza Strip to Hamas Gaza City Brigade commander Izz al Din al Haddad. – Turkish and Syrian National Army (SNA) Operations: Turkey and the SNA may be attempting to stretch the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)’s bandwidth by threatening multiple areas simultaneously. Turkey has continued to support SNA efforts to isolate and destroy SDF elements along the Euphrates River. – SDF Bridgeheads on the Euphrates: Neither the SDF nor SNA appears to have made any significant territorial gains around the bridgeheads, but the pressure that the SNA has put these bridgeheads under will make it difficult for the SDF to disengage and withdraw in good order if the SNA or Turkey forces the SDF to contend with a threat to their rear. Withdrawing a military force while under enemy pressure is an extremely difficult undertaking, particularly when the withdrawing force comes under pressure from a large military force. – Iran Update, January 13, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova highway southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. – Russian forces likely intend to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to force Ukrainian units to withdraw from the towns in future months. – Russian state-owned energy corporation Gazprom acknowledged that it is considering reducing the size of its central office staff by 40 percent, indicating that Gazprom may be concerned about the long-term effects that the war in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian gas exports to Europe will have on the Russian gas industry. – Russian forces recently advanced in the Kharkiv, Borova, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions. – South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reportedly announced that North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast total roughly 3,000 killed and wounded. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks a conditions-free meeting with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to appear strong despite setbacks and U.S. incentives for a pause. However, this overconfidence risks misjudging Trump’s significant leverage in negotiations. The United States has multiple pressure points it could use against Russia, including stricter sanctions on oil exports, increased NATO defense budgets, expanded military aid to Ukraine, and targeted delegitimization of Putin’s regime to weaken internal support. – Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion – Jamestown
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation – 13 January 2025) Typically “hawkish” Russian media outlets have recently expressed hope for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Skepticism remains, however, with independent analysts citing Russia’s battlefield momentum and potential military escalation in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers and civilians desire an end to the war, but fear of betrayal and defeat fuels them to continue the war. Public opinion shows that many Russians favor peace, but pro-Putin sentiments dominate, limiting anti-war influence. Putin and radical propagandists push for escalation, including missile provocations and new offensives, dismissing peace efforts. Distrust of negotiations and paranoia fuel their belief in a decisive military victory. – Russia Balances War Escalation and Negotiations Rhetoric Amid Growing Discontent – Jamestown
South Korea
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) On December 14, 2024, South Korea’s National Assembly impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol for his decision to impose Martial Law, resulting in chaos in society and market speculation. Following the incident, Han Duck-soo, the then Prime Minister (PM), became the acting president, taking responsibility for running the government. However, his brief stint also ended with the impeachment on 27 December 2024 by the National Assembly, with the bill passing with 192 out of 300 voting in the favour. Following his removal, Choi Sang-mok, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, is slated to become the acting President, the third in command in the current administration. However, with each cycle of political impeachments, the country is being pushed into a state of constitutional crisis, which has profound implications for its economic and security situation. – Unending Cycle of Political Impeachment in South Korea: Heading towards a Constitutional Crisis?
Türkiye – Syria – Libya
(Emadeddin Badi, Abdullah al-Jabassini – Atlantic Council) The Mediterranean has always been a theater of rivalries, shifting alliances, and calculated gambles, and Turkey has once again thrown its dice. Ankara’s announcement of a potential Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement with Syria’s new government mirrors Turkey’s 2019 maritime pact with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). That earlier agreement allowed Turkey to claim a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, reshaping regional dynamics to its advantage. Today, Ankara is pursuing a similar strategy in Syria, seeking to create facts on water as it did on land, using the promise of economic and political support to position itself as a dominant player in the country. These parallel maneuvers underscore Ankara’s broader vision of Libya and Syria as interconnected pillars of its geopolitical strategy in the Mediterranean, where actions in one arena bolster influence in the other. – Turkey’s Syria and Libya strategies add up to a Mediterranean power play – Atlantic Council
(Serhat Erkmen, Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) Turkey’s post-Assad ambitions face mounting risks as it backs Syria’s new rulers while navigating the challenges of sectarian violence, a potential Islamic State resurgence, and Kurdish hostility. – Can Turkey Stabilise Syria? | Royal United Services Institute
USA
(Jeffrey Ball – Brookings) Donald Trump, an incoming U.S. president who pledges to make America great again, could score a win in one of today’s defining global battles: the competition with China to sell low-carbon technologies throughout the Global South. It matters little that the president-elect derides climate change as a hoax. He could notch the economic and geopolitical victory—and, as an aside, win points for helping the planet—by following his favorite playbook: the art of the deal. It could be quite the power play: The bane of climate campaigners becomes the master of climate realpolitik. It also could happen. Trump is returning to the White House at a time when raw dealmaking is showing signs of succeeding as a climate strategy after years in which grand diplomacy has faltered. This is particularly the case in emerging markets and developing economies, the parts of the world that matter most to the planet’s future. – Trump dealmaking could shift the cold war over the climate
USA – Africa
(Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Laird Treiber, Rafiq Raji, Jon Temin, Saleh Bala, Cameron Hudson, Emilia Columbo, Ryan Cummings, and Will Brown – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump will assume the presidency of the United States of America for the second time. As the world watches the changing of the guard between the returning president and Joe Biden, analysts will parse Trump’s inaugural speech for any hints of his vision for U.S.-Africa relations. They will also monitor his executive orders and legislation from the Republican-majority Congress for what they purport for Africa. This is particularly true considering the unfortunate words he reportedly had used to describe Africa during his previous term, as well as his attacks on African and Haitian refugees during the last presidential campaign. – Experts React: The Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Administration in Africa
USA – China
(Samantha Gross, Louison Sall – Brookings) China and the United States are the world’s first- and second-largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs), respectively. Both countries are huge with vast, but different, resource bases, leading them to have very different energy systems and respective advantages and disadvantages in the clean energy transition. This paper intends to explain those differences to foster a better understanding of how the two countries behave economically and geopolitically. – How do China and America think about the energy transition?
Human Rights
(Andrew Friedman, Michelle Strucke – Just Security) As the calendar turns from 2024 to 2025, the world is faced with unprecedented challenges. Globally, authoritarians continued to gain momentum against democracy. Across Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine, civilians face consistent and unrelenting conflict-related human rights violations, sexual and gender-based violence, and bloodshed. Authoritarian actors are increasingly emboldened to crack down both within and outside their borders. Poor leadership, rampant insecurity, lack of economic opportunity, and a changing climate continue to create and increase vulnerability of populations across the globe. And those charged with helping populations in need- aid workers- faced the deadliest year on record. – Human Rights Priorities for 2025: The Global Landscape