From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Canada; China-South Korea-Yellow Sea; East Asia-US; Europe; Georgia; Germany; Russia; Russia-East Africa; US; US-Iran; US-Ukraine
Canada
(Layla Mashkoor – Atlantic Council) Liberal Party leader Mark Carney defeated Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre on April 28 to become Canada’s Prime Minister in an election where sovereignty unexpectedly took center stage. The campaign unfolded amid persistent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that Canada should become America’s “51st State”—remarks which all candidates firmly rejected while positioning themselves as best equipped to manage Canada-U.S. relations. This unusual diplomatic tension, coupled with a severe domestic affordability crisis, drove record voter turnout and shaped campaign messaging through election day, when Carney opened his victory speech with a direct appeal: “Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me?” – How social media shaped the 2025 Canadian election – DFRLab
China – South Korea – Yellow Sea
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea. – The China-Korea Yellow Sea Dispute | German Marshall Fund of the United States
East Asia – US
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) On President Donald Trump’s much-touted April 2 “Liberation Day,” he unveiled a range of potentially debilitating “reciprocal” tariffs on the United States’ major trading partners—and most other countries as well. Surprisingly, some of the countries facing the highest tariffs after the April announcement were U.S. partners in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam; Vietnam, a huge trading partner, was hit with a 46 percent “reciprocal” tariff. Trump also put tariffs on Cambodia—a whopping 49 percent for one of East Asia’s poorest countries—and even Australia, a critical security ally that has a trade surplus with the United States. – Why East Asia Is a Target of Trump’s Tariff War, in Six Charts | Council on Foreign Relations
Europe
(Rosa Balfour – Carnegie Europe) At some point between February 12, when U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the televised humiliation of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on February 28, Europe realized it could no longer rely on its longtime ally, the United States. The shocking depth and breadth of this realization cannot be overemphasized. Political leaders in European states, the European Union, and NATO displayed composure and coordination, but behind the scenes, the soundtrack was a frantic free jazz jam session with dramatic thuds and a long pause—the silence at the realization that the European comfort zone was over. – Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B. | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Gesine Weber – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The Weimar Triangle, the informal cooperation among France, Germany, and Poland, has sparked increasing interest and attention recently. In March 2024, the three countries’ leaders agreed on a list of priorities to aid Ukraine, with a focus on enhancing military support. Meetings among their ministers for foreign affairs, defense, and European affairs followed, the results of which include plans to hold joint military exercises in Poland later this year and an agenda for a “strong, geopolitical EU”. The latter was published before last year’s EU elections. Experts have celebrated these efforts and praised the grouping as “Europe’s new engine”. – Weimar Is Not Enough | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The Georgian State Registry re-registered “Conservatives for Georgia,” a pro-Russian party tied to political violence and anti-Western rhetoric, signaling the ruling Georgian Dream party’s continued effort to consolidate pro-Russian forces ahead of elections. Ultranationalist groups, originally civil movements promoting anti-Western propaganda, have gained political traction in Georgia through riots, symbolic attacks on European symbols, and strategic support from Georgian Dream. Georgian Dream can orchestrate a façade of democracy through competing against other pro-Russian parties while sidelining opposition parties in elections. The Kremlin aims to install pro-Russian elites in Georgia who promote narratives about Georgian reunification with Russia. Georgian Dream’s dominance enables Russia’s agenda to isolate Georgia from the West under the guise of national sovereignty. – Georgia’s Pro-Kremlin Parties are Growing Stronger – Jamestown
Germany
(Jackson Janes – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Friedrich Merz is on the cusp of becoming Germany’s tenth postwar chancellor. He is expected to take office on May 6, just two days before the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. With a recognition that the United States and its allies defeated Nazi tyranny, he and his fellow Germans will hold commemorations and may well become nostalgic for the decades that followed the end of the war. Washington went on to become West Germany’s mentor and protector, and a key driver of reunification in 1990. Germans remain grateful for the sacrifices that that entailed, even as their faith in their long-term partner now wavers. – Forging Common Ground | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is using Russian ice hockey player Alexander Ovechkin’s record as the all-time National Hockey League–North America’s professional ice hockey league—scorer to promote nationalism, claiming the achievement for Russia. Russian President Putin has long used sports to symbolize Russian values and project personal strength, hosting international athletic competitions, promoting participation in sports, and playing in exhibition matches himself. Ovechkin’s refusal to openly condemn Russia’s war against Ukraine, personal promotion of Putin’s presidential campaigns, and cooperation with Russian state-run media facilitate the propagandization of his personal record both in Russia and the West. – Kremlin Propaganda Uses Alexander Ovechkin’s Hockey Record to Promote Russian Nationalism – Jamestown
(Arnold Khachaturov – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) Accusations of fudging figures have dogged the Russian government in recent years. It’s true that researchers have ample reason to question statistical authenticity: a growing amount of data is being classified, and many figures are clearly calculated to please the Kremlin. That does not mean, however, that Russian statistics have become as meaningless as their Soviet predecessors. They simply require more careful interpretation. Much criticism of Russian statistics is quite justified: official figures demonstrably contain various forms of manipulation. Take the series of presidential decrees issued in May 2012, which seriously distorted mortality data in Russia. Eager to show the Kremlin some sort of success, regional authorities played musical chairs with mortality codes. Thus, suicides became “injuries of undetermined intent” in statistical accounting, and circulatory diseases became death “from old age.” According to various estimates, junk mortality codes now apply to about 10 percent of deaths in Russia. – Can Official Russian Statistics Be Trusted? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Andrey Pertsev – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s use of informal diplomacy has become mainstream, and proxy diplomats play an increasingly important role in determining foreign policy. While the Kremlin seems happy with this blurring of the line between official and unofficial, there are some major drawbacks—not least that it makes it harder to strike proper deals with other nations. The trend has been well illustrated by the nature of the negotiations between Russia and the United States over a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The main points of contact between the two countries in these talks have not been foreign ministries, but the relations forged by U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (who is known to be close to President Vladimir Putin). – Putin’s Proxy Diplomats Are Undermining the Coherence of Russian Foreign Policy | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia – East Africa
(John C.K.Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced plans in February to increase Russian involvement in Africa, as Russia’s Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Dmitry Volvach, expects that Russian-African trade will double in the next five years. Russia is expanding its influence in Africa through rapidly growing trade, expected to double in five years, alongside intensified military engagement, including arms deals, troop deployments, and a planned naval base in Sudan. Russia’s deepening presence in Africa reflects a strategic effort to fill geopolitical and diplomatic gaps and counter competition from the People’s Republic of China through sustained investment, partnership, and regional engagement. – Russia Expands Foothold in East Africa – Jamestown
US
(Warren Maruyama, Meghan Anand, William Alan Reinsch – CSIS) On April 9, 2025, in the face of U.S. stock and bond markets spiraling downward, U.S. bond yields increasing, the dollar tanking, consumer confidence sinking, and growing nervousness among congressional Republicans, President Donald Trump “paused” his steep reciprocal tariffs just hours after they kicked in at 12:01 a.m. that day. Notwithstanding the pause, the Trump administration announced increases in reciprocal tariff rates on China from 34 percent to 125 percent after China predictably struck back with retaliatory tariffs of its own. This increased the minimum U.S. tariff rate on most imports from China to around 170 percent (including the 125 percent reciprocal tariff, 20 percent fentanyl tariff, and the 25 percent to 100 percent Section 301 tariffs under the Trump 1.0 and Biden administrations, although at a certain point, tariff rates become prohibitive and further increases become largely meaningless. – Can Trump’s Reciprocal Trade Negotiations Make America Great Again?
US – Iran
(Soufan Center) At a third round of talks on Saturday, in Muscat, U.S. and Iranian officials began to exchange substantive proposals for a new agreement, after two rounds of talks focused mainly on the negotiating process. Saturday’s turn to substance laid bare continued differences on the objectives for an agreement, clouding prospects for the talks. U.S. officials continue to insist that Iran cease enriching uranium entirely, a demand Iranian leaders assert is non-negotiable. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism that an agreement will be reached, while continuing to threaten military action if talks break down. – U.S. and Iran Start to Drill Down to Substance – The Soufan Center
US – Ukraine
(Atlantic Council) Rock paper signed. After months of getting close only to come up short—including a rocky Oval Office meeting in late February between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—the United States and Ukraine quietly struck a much-anticipated economic partnership on Wednesday. The agreement is intended to open US access to Ukraine’s natural resources, including its critical minerals, while helping to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. What does the partnership entail? Where do Washington and Kyiv stand with each other now? And what message does the deal send to Russia? – Experts react: At last, the US and Ukraine signed a minerals deal. Here’s what to expect next. – Atlantic Council
