LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Maram Mahdi – CIGI) In recent years, Africa’s primary multilateral organization, the African Union, has grappled with a resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government. A phenomenon common on the continent in the 1970s and 1980s has returned. Over the last five years, ten military coup d’états have taken place in seven countries, namely Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sudan.
China
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) A new report from two high-end PRC think-tanks details the country’s path to modernization in anticipation of July’s Third Plenum but suggests that any shifts in policy direction will be muted. The report emphasizes the triumph of Chinese-style modernization over the Western model and provides substantial criticisms of the failures of the West. It also argues that the PRC’s model contains lessons for other developing countries. The report leverages Western individuals and institutions to buttress its arguments for the superiority of Chinese-style modernization, which suggests that the West is still perceived as (or can be instrumentalized as) a source of legitimacy by the PRC. The report asserts the core message that only Party-led Chinese-style modernization can bring about national rejuvenation, and that this will occur through an economic program that is focused on “seizing the commanding heights in a new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation.”
Foreign Fixations at the Heart of Chinese-style Modernization – Jamestown
(Nathaniel Sher – The Jamestown Foundation) The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) will likely take many years developing into a veritable world-class aircraft enterprise. Over 1,200 orders have been placed for the new C919, primarily from domestic state-owned airlines. Comac has delivered 5 single-aisle planes to domestic airlines and plans to scale annual production to 150 C919s by 2028. The company faces several challenges before entering the international market. It will need to obtain airworthiness licenses, find additional buyers, open overseas repair centers, and build resilience into its supply chain. Upstream and downstream aviation manufacturers in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are working to localize technology amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Comac’s Homegrown Aircraft Goes Global – Jamestown
(Sunny Cheung – The Jamestown Foundation) The OpenAtom Foundation supports open-source technology in areas such as RISC-V architecture and Electronic Design Automation. These efforts are part of a strategy by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to navigate and overcome technological containment by the United States, showcasing the foundation’s role in leveraging open-source as a strategic asset. OpenHarmony, an open-source version of Huawei’s HarmonyOS, and openEuler, a Linux distribution developed by Huawei, are the foundation’s flagship projects. They are part of a strategy to reduce reliance on foreign technologies and enhance self-reliance and innovation. OpenAtom’s alignment with state objectives is evident in its governance and strategic direction. Despite being a non-governmental organization, at least 45 percent of its employees are affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This alignment is particularly visible in the foundation’s efforts to develop and promote open-source ecosystems as a tool for technological and geopolitical advancement. Open-source technology allows for global collaboration and innovation, but organizations like OpenAtom existing within the PRC are influenced by the agendas and strategies of the PRC’s government. The openness of these technologies makes them susceptible to vulnerabilities and manipulation.
Open-Source Technology and PRC National Strategy: Part I – Jamestown
(Michael Laha – The Jamestown Foundation) Graphene is at the heart of the emphasis on the sector, which has been the focus of high-level strategic planning in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for some time. The material’s unique properties make it suitable for applications in the critical aeronautics and electronics sectors. In 2016, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) established a leading small group dedicated to the new materials industry. Such a cross-ministerial steering body is only in rare occasions dedicated to just one economic sector. Last year, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a list of 15 new materials, including graphene, the Chinese government hopes will create new sources of economic growth. These have been folded into the new drive for “new productive forces,” aimed at finding new sources of economic dynamism. A prominent graphene researcher, Liu Zhongfan, shows how experts can be adept at linking their research to strategic goals, while also advising caution about the potential for quick and easy answers to solving economic issues.
Graphene Among New Materials Intended to Unlock New Productive Forces – Jamestown
Georgia
(Nicholas Chkhaidze – Atlantic Council) Recent efforts by the Georgian government to adopt a Kremlin-style law imposing restrictions on civil society have laid bare the geopolitical struggle currently underway to define the country’s future. The escalating crisis in the southern Caucasus nation also offers some indications of the end game Russia may have in mind if it succeeds in defeating Ukraine.
Russia’s Georgia strategy offers hints of Kremlin vision for Ukraine – Atlantic Council
Global
(Thomas J. Bollyky, Chloe Searchinger, Alice C. Hill, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, and Benn Steil – Council on Foreign Relations) Policymakers face complex cost-benefit considerations when intervening in the market to mitigate perceived risks, from climate change to competition with China.
In Economic Security, Trade-offs Abound | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Hong Kong
(Anouk Wear 華穆清, Athena Tong – The Jamestown Foundation) The Safeguarding National Security Ordinance (SNSO) introduced under Article 23 of the Basic Law prohibits five types of activities which HKSAR officials intend to declare as “offenses,” and has proposed provisions which are vague and criminalize the peaceful exercise of human rights while undermining rights to fair trials and due process in the HKSAR. The SNSO is designed to specifically target collaborations with foreigners and foreign organizations and increases the power of the PRC to interpret the law in the HKSAR, further eroding the city’s judicial independence and high degree of autonomy. The SNSO’s global jurisdiction and extraterritorial clauses also echo PRC laws. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) conforms to broader trends in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) approach to human rights and international norms by echoing tactics the PRC has used on its own dissidents both at home and abroad. These approaches may also serve as a playbook for other authoritarian and aspiring authoritarian regimes. The HKSAR and PRC employ several identical narratives in rebutting external criticism including whataboutism and the narrative is that international human rights discourse is derivative of western hegemony.
Article 23 Legislation and the Export of Hong Kong’s Human Rights Violations – Jamestown
Iran
(Arash Azizi – Atlantic Council) When pro-Palestinian student protests on US campuses led to instances of disciplinary action and police violence, one thing was immediately predictable: the repressive Islamic Republic of Iran will use this news to make two claims. First, it will argue that the United States and other liberal democracies are hypocrites who don’t really support human rights or freedom of expression. Second, it will claim that the protests vindicate Tehran’s position and even show its influence in the West. In the past few weeks, Iranian officials and state media outlets have indeed spread both messages.
(Urban Coningham and Matthew Savill – RUSI) The recent outbreak of open conflict between Iran and Israel has upended the notional strategic stability of the ‘shadow war’ between the two, and it is possible that a return to the status quo will be harder to achieve than expected.
Iran’s Military Strategy: Stick or Twist? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Myanmar
(Crisis Group) The Arakan Army has greatly expanded the territory it controls in Rakhine State, on Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh, seizing many areas inhabited by Rohingya Muslims. With the regime keen to foment inter-communal strife, Rakhine and Rohingya leaders should act swiftly to calm tensions.
War in Western Myanmar: Avoiding a Rakhine-Rohingya Conflict | Crisis Group
USA
(Hayes Meredith, Jaret C. Riddick – CSET) The Biden Administration’s “Investing in America” agenda designates $80 billion to focus on “place-based industrial policy,” representing a historic level of government investment. Policymakers across government need to understand how these investments help the United States to stay ahead of its primary strategic competitors, China and Russia. This post previews a CSET study that will explore how the creation and design of place-based innovation centers can enhance both U.S. economic and national security.
USA – Africa
(Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Cameron Hudson, Khasai Makhulo, and Catherine Nzuki – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Black, red, and green will color the streets of Washington, D.C., on May 23, 2024, as the Kenyan flag is raised to welcome President William Ruto and First Lady Rachel Chebet for the Republic of Kenya’s third state visit to the United States in its history. The last official state visit from an African leader to the United States was President John Kufour of Ghana in 2008. This state visit comes at an important moment for the U.S.-Kenya bilateral relationship, but it carries even more significance for U.S.-Africa relations more broadly.
Keeping the Embers Alive: Biden Reignites U.S.-Africa Relations with Kenyan State Visit (csis.org)
USA – China
(Matthew P. Funaiole – Center for Strategic & International Studies) China’s shipbuilding empire is the latest flashpoint in the intensifying frictions between Washington and Beijing. As the Biden administration zeroes in on the potentially unfair trade practices that propelled China’s emergence as the largest shipbuilder in the world, broader national security issues are also at play. Foreign capital and technology are flowing into Chinese dual-use shipyards, which is accelerating Beijing’s ongoing naval buildup.
The Threat of China’s Shipbuilding Empire (csis.org)
USA – Israel
(Chatham House) As Israel appears poised to launch an offensive in Rafah, Bronwen Maddox interviews a key figure in US foreign policy on the Middle East for over a decade, Ambassador Dennis Ross.
USA – Saudi Arabia
(Agnes Helou – Breaking Defense) On April 29, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a surprising announcement: that a new defense pact between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is “potentially very close to completion.” In turn, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that bilateral agreements between the two sides are expected “in the near future.”
War in Ukraine
(Keir Giles – Chatham House) Backing down in the face of Russian threats is the worst option. The UK should join France in using strategic ambiguity.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
